Matchup Preview: Illinois at Michigan State

Illinois is a 14.5-point road underdog when they travel to a Michigan State team that has lost three in a row.

Date/time: Saturday, Nov. 9, 2:30 p.m. CST

Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan

Surface: Grass

Capacity: 75,005

Schedule/records: Illinois 5-4 overall, 3-3 Big Ten, 4-8 in 2018 (2-7 in Big Ten); Michigan State 4-4 overall, 2-3 in Big Ten, 7-6 (5-4 in Big Ten) in 2018.

Series notes: Michigan State leads the all-time series against Illinois, 26-18-2, and holds a 13-8-1 edge in East Lansing. The two teams have met only once in the last six seasons, a 31-27 Illinois win in Champaign on Nov. 5, 2016.

TV: FS1

Line: Michigan State by 13

TV: FS1; Kevin Kugler (PBP), Matt Millen (analyst) & Lisa Byington (sidelines).

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Martin O'Donnell (analysis) and Steve Kelly (Pre/HT/Post) » The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius (108) / XM (196) satellite radio & SiriusXM Internet (958), and at FightingIllini.com.

Michigan State running game vs. Illinois run defense

Something has to give in this matchup. Michigan State's physical offensive scheme has always been based in being able to run the ball in between the tackles and controlling the time of possession. However, Michigan State ranks next to last in the Big Ten Conference in rushing offense and are led by the inconsistencies of a freshman tailback (Elijah Collins) but Illinois has had troubles against teams such as Nebraska and Minnesota, who are committed to running the football but have held teams in each of the last three games to under 200 yards on the ground. The key for the Illini to hold the edge in this category is getting another solid effort from its defensive tackles (Jamal Milan and Tymir Oliver). 

Edge: Even

Michigan State passing game vs. Illinois pass defense

With a veteran, fifth-year senior quarterback (Brian Lewerke) and the Big Ten Conference's fifth-best passing offense, Illinois would look to be in serious trouble to set back in its Cover-2 defense. However, the Spartans are reportedly to be without leading receiver Darrell Stewart Jr. due to an undisclosed injury. After the formation of Illinois' secondary of Tony Adams, Nate Hobbs, Stanley Green and Sydney Brown, the Illini have been a turnover machine. This game will test Lewerke's ability to find other pass-catching options and watch for the tight ends to factor more as Matt Seybert and Matt Dotson are the Spartans' third and fourth-leading targets. 

Edge: Even

Illinois running game vs. Michigan State run defense

One way for Michigan State to compensate for the loss of Joe Bachie is to control the center of the line-of-scrimmage. Defensive tackles Mike Panasiuk and Raequan Williams have started alongside each other on the interior of the defensive line for 37 consecutive games, dating back to the Ohio State game on Nov. 19, 2016. And they're not headed out of town anytime soon. The duo was a big reason why MSU ranked No. 1 in the Football Bowl Subdivision in rushing defense in 2018 and rank 25th in the nation in that category this season. Illinois is going to have to move them or find success on the perimeter with the run game to be able to find offensive success Saturday. One thing we know about Michigan State defensive coordinator Mike Tressel is he'll come up with a solid plan. The Spartans are limiting opponents to just 2.35 yards per attempt in the first quarter of its first eight games this season. 

Edge: Michigan State slightly

Illinois passing game vs. Michigan State pass defense

Brandon Peters is going to be given opportunities to make one-on-one throws as Michigan State plays aggressive man-to-man defense. Peters is coming off two straight wins where he's only attempted a total of 17 passes. Look for Illinois offensive coordinator Rod Smith to find some early easy throws for the Michigan transfer but the key will be Illinois' tackles to be able to give Peters enough time on some of those deep sideline throws to keep the MSU linebackers backpedaling instead of blitzing. 

Edge: Michigan State

Special teams

Normally the combination of Blake Hayes and James McCourt in the kicking game would give the Illini a slight edge but MSU has struggled heavily in the kicking game over the last few weeks. Junior Matt Coghlin is just 11 of 18 on field goals and senior punter Jake Hartbarger averaged just 31 yards per kick. Illinois will need to control the field position in this game and Hayes has 24 of his 55 punts have been downed inside the 20, with just one touchback. Opponents have scored only 16 points on ensuing drives after Hayes’ punts inside the 20 (0.7 points per drive) and Illinois has scored two defensive touchdowns (net -2 points). 

Edge: Illinois

Intangibles

This is a must-win for Michigan State if they want to avoid missing a postseason game for only the second time since Mark Dantonio took over the program in 2007. With a bye week to prepare for the Illini and the fact that MSU is coming off a three-game losing streak, the Spartans have had a chance to get healthy and prepare to shut down the Illini's run game. Lovie Smith has designated this game to the media as the most important game of his tenure with the Illini but Illinois still has two more chances (including a very winnable finale vs. Northwestern) to get bowl eligible for the first time since 2014. Illinois’ last win over in East Lansing was a 23-20 victory on Sept. 30, 2006. Jason Reda hit a 39-yard field goal with six seconds left to win the game.

Edge: Michigan State

PREDICTION
If Illinois can replicate its turnover magic of the last three weeks than it'll have a chance to get its sixth win of the season and begin to build its bowl resume to other committees other than the folks in Detroit. However, even with the suspensions and injuries handed to MSU over the last week, it's hard to envision this Spartans defense allowing the Illini to find a consistent passing game on the road. 

Michigan State 21, Illinois 13