Matchup Preview: No. 6 Wisconsin at Illinois

Wisconsin, which has four shutouts this season, seemingly has an advantage in nearly every aspect of this Homecoming matchup at Illinois.

No. 6 Wisconsin at Illinois

Date/Time/Place: Saturday, Oct. 18, 2019: 11 a.m. CST, Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Ill.

Surface: Field Turf

Capacity: 60,670

Records: Wisconsin 6-0, 3-0 in Big Ten Conference, 8-5, 5-4 in 2018; Illinois 2-4, 0-3 in 2019, 4-8, 2-7 in 2018.

Line: Wisconsin by 31. Since 1990, Illinois has only been a 30-point home underdog against twice (2013 vs. Ohio State and 1998 vs. Ohio State).

Series notes: Wisconsin holds a 42-37-7 lead in series. The Badgers have won 13 of the last 14 meetings in this rivalry with the only Illini win being in 2007.

TV: BTN; Kevin Kugler (PBP), Matt Millen (analyst) and Rick Pizzo (sidelines)

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Martin O’Donnell (analyst), Michael Martin (sidelines) & Steve Kelly (Pre/HT/Post)» The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius (94) / XM (195) satellite radio & SiriusXM Internet (957), and at FightingIllini.com.

Wisconsin’s running game vs. Illinois run defense

This will likely be by far the biggest matchup disadvantage for the Illini this season. All week Illinois head coach Lovie Smith and Illini players have all said “we know what Wisconsin is going to do” and it’s one thing to know the game plan and yet, stopping it is quite a different thing. The Badgers, led by Heisman Trophy candidate Jonathan Taylor, is 11th in the country in rushing offense and Taylor himself is third among all Football Bowl Subdivision players in rushing by averaging 137.5 yards on the ground. The Illini has proven to be one of the worst FBS programs in stopping the run (106th of 130 FBS teams) by allowing Big Ten Conference foes to gain 324.33 rushing yards. The only glimmer of hope for this Illini defense is their ability to cause turnovers and specifically fumbles and Taylor, the 2018 Doak Walker Award winner, had a fumbling problem early in his career (12 fumbles and 10 lost in last two years) but has only fumbled once (not lost) this season in 129 carries in the first six games of the 2019 campaign.

Edge: Wisconsin, by a large margin

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Wisconsin passing game vs. Illinois pass defense

This might be the most underrated aspect of Wisconsin’s offense as Jack Coan has been as efficient as any recent Badgers quarterback in the Paul Chryst era. Coan is completing 76.3 percent of his passes and has averaged 186.5 yards per game while throwing only one interception. Big Ten Network analysts Gerry DiNardo and Urban Meyer detailed the junior quarterback’s efficiency against Michigan State last weekend (18 of 21 for 180 yards, one touchdown). After getting 11 sacks in its first two games, Illinois’ defensive front has recorded just three sacks in three Big Ten Conference games including an entire game last weekend that didn’t get a sack or much quarterback pressure at all. Watch the pre-snap shifting of Chryst’s offense constantly trying to get Illinois’ defenders out of position to give Coan easier throws and 1-on-1 matchups early on.

Edge: Wisconsin

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Illinois running game vs. Wisconsin run defense

Lovie Smith constantly says Illinois “is a running football team”. That statement is bound to be challenged again as Wisconsin leads the nation by allowing opponents just 44.67 yards per game on the ground. Opponents are averaging 1.75 yards per game and therefore, Illini offensive coordinator Rod Smith has been pressing to his offensive skill players that a two or 3-yard gain on rushing plays may need to be considered a roaring success. Wisconsin is the first team in Division I college football to have four shutouts in its first six games since the 1967 Oklahoma team. The main reason for this historical statistic is the Badgers ability to win on first down by either effectively filling run gaps or forcing teams into a pass-first culture on early downs. Illinois will need a career-best performance out of tailback Reggie Corbin, who has been publicly frustrated with his performance in each of the last two games.

Edge: Wisconsin by a large margin

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Illinois passing game vs. Wisconsin pass defense

The only opponent this season to pass for more than 158 yards against Wisconsin this season was Michigan and you could argue that was by necessity due to a 28-0 halftime deficit. Illinois still has a quarterback problem this weekend as the concussion protocol status of Brandon Peters still has the graduate transfer an official game-time decision. Matt Robinson built confidence last weekend against Michigan as the game went on but has still yet to prove he can consistently make the kind of difficult throws that Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard will likely make him do on Saturday. Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the Badgers are tops in the nation in this defensive category too. The only matchup that Illinois might feel good about is wide receiver Josh Imatorbhebhe versus third-year sophomore Deron Harrell as Harrell is the only defensive back who can likely handle Imatorbhebhe’s physicality at 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds.

Edge: Wisconsin

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Special teams

Normally Illinois would get the nod in this category but punter Blake Hayes had a miserable performance last weekend against Michigan. Hayes shanked several punts off the side of his foot and had a rugby-style punt blocked in a play where Hayes seemed to scramble into the punt block rush. James McCourt continues to excel on long field goals. All five of his field goals this season are from 40 or more yards and three are from 50 or more. He’ll likely need to hit such kicks if/when called upon to give Illinois some early confidence. Wisconsin kicker Collin Larsh is 1 of 4 this season on attempts of 30 yards or longer. One issue that could favor certainly favor Illinois is in kickoff returns as the Illini get an electrifying athlete in Chase Brown to pair with Dre’ Brown in possibly giving the Illini a special teams jolt.

Edge: Even

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Intangibles

This is looking like arguably the most dominant Wisconsin program since Barry Alvarez took over in 1990. Taylor has a chance against one of the nation’s worst run defense to bolster his Heisman Trophy candidacy and Wisconsin has a legit chance to record a fifth shutout this season. Wisconsin is searching for its 10th consecutive win against the Illini and that obviously means every player on this Badgers roster looks at the Illinois game on the schedule as an automatic win. Illinois head coach Lovie Smith said Monday “it’s on us to whether we consider ourselves an underdog” but simply being competitive in this game for four quarters may seem like a victory for Smith’s seemingly always rebuilding program.

Edge: Wisconsin

PREDICTION

In every category that Illinois somewhat succeeds, Wisconsin is better. Even in an 11 a.m. Homecoming kickoff, I’m not sure the crowd will be anything more than a 50/50 of WIsconsin red and Illini orange and blue. The second and third quarters against Michigan that included 25 unanswered points gives the Illini confidence they can compete against anybody in the nation but this Wisconsin team is rolling toward a Western Division championship and a possible College Football Playoff berth in a play-in game against Ohio State in Indianapolis. Without career games by several key Illini players and a monumental shift of both the offensive and defensive lines, Illinois has little hope of keeping this game close.

Wisconsin 42, Illinois 7