Illinois Football vs. Michigan State: Odds, Trends and Prediction

The Illini are slight favorites against the Spartans in a series that has featured three straight upsets

Nov 5, 2022; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Michigan State Spartans tight end Tyler Hunt (97) is tackled by Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Sydney Brown (30) and teammate Seth Coleman (49 )during the second half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Coming out of a bye week, Illinois (6-3, 3-3 Big Ten) – a loser of two straight – no longer has its head in the clouds in regard to what might be accomplished this season.

The Illini are not an upper-level Big Ten team, not yet. But they still can grind their way to a memorable final record.

Focused on what’s ahead.#Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/g0AYVSoBvZ

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) November 11, 2024

First comes Michigan State (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten) at 1:30 p.m. CT Saturday at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois. The Illini’s last home game of the season – Senior Day for wideout Pat Bryant, linebacker Seth Coleman and others – will be aired on FS1. After that, the team goes to Rutgers before finishing the regular season against Northwestern at Wrigley Field in Chicago.

Yes, 9-3 is possible. If the Illini get there, talk of a bowl win – for 10 Ws in all – can begin. Until then, though, they’d better focus on not screwing things up against the Spartans. All Illini fans know too well that no Big Ten game can be taken for granted.

So-so Sparty: The Spartans won at Maryland and came very close to winning at Boston College. They comported themselves fairly well at Oregon and were right in it until the bitter end at Michigan. They’ve been a decent road team this season despite their 1-3 road record. Where coach Jonathan Smith’s first MSU team has struggled mightily is with turnovers and penalties. Quarterback Aidan Chiles has eight touchdown passes and 11 interceptions, the worst ratio in the conference.

Illini strengths: Quarterback Luke Altmyer, on the other hand, has 16 TD passes and three intrerceptions, the best ratio in the conference. Illinois’ defense has forced 10 fumbles and picked off nine passes. Also, the Illini are the ninth-least-penalized team in the country, another clear edge in this matchup.

Series trends: The teams’ last meeting, two years ago in Champaign, was a terrible day for the Illini, who came in favored by 16 points but lost 23-15. The previous two times they met – in 2019 and 2016 – it was Illinois that won despite being the underdog. In 2019, the line was 14. So this has been a completely unpredictable series.

ATS, total trends: The Illini are favored by 2½, with a total of 47½. The Illini are 5-3-1 against the spread this season, to 4-5 for the Spartans. Eight of the Illini’s last 11 games, and eight of the Spartans’ last 12 games, have gone under. Both teams have been slow offensive starters, too, with five of Illinois’ last seven games going under in the first half and eight of MSU’s last 11 games doing the same.

The picks: Illinois and the under.

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