Illinois vs. Purdue: Week 7 Odds, Ends and Prediction

Beware the upset: The Illinois-Purdue underdog has covered the spread five years in a row

Steven Greenberg | Oct 9, 2024

Purdue Boilermakers running back Devin Mockobee (45) is tackled by a group of Illinois Fighting Illini players during the NCAA football game, Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Purdue Boilermakers won 44-19. / Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORK

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A mismatch? That’s what the odds are saying about Purdue at No. 23 Illinois, a Cannon Trophy rivalry matchup in which the surprisingly good Illini (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) are favored against the woeful Boilermakers (1-4, 0-2 Big Ten) by a huge spread that opened at 17½ points and has moved to 19½. The total is 49½.

So Far From Pur-fect

The Boilers have lost four straight games – by a combined 140 points – and second-year coach Ryan Walters looks and sounds sadder than a lost puppy. Life wasn’t this complicated when he was Bret Bielema’s defensive coordinator at Illinois.

His current defense ranks 132nd in the nation against the run (239.2 yards per game) and is the worst in that department in the 18-team Big Ten by an incredible margin of 80 yards per game. Guess that’s what happens when you get blown out routinely and opponents have no need to throw the ball.

Meanwhile, Walters’ predecessor, Jeff Brohm, would’ve been horrified by the Boilers’ passing offense, which ranks 122nd (161.2 yards per game).

Lyin’ Illini

The win-loss record is nice, but the Illini won’t be all they can be unless they run the ball better. Averaging less than 3.8 yards per carry is no way to go through a season, but that’s where they’re at. This is a total prove-it game in that department.

But Wait

Don’t think there can’t be an upset, because the underdog has covered the spread five years in a row and this series is weirdly unpredictable beyond that. Last year’s game was a pick ’em, but the Illini managed to get blown out by 25. The Illini were favored by 6½ in 2022 but lost by a touchdown. They were 9½-point underdogs in 2019 but won easily by 18. Purdue on the money line at +750 is worth considering.

ATS, Total Trends

The Boilers haven’t come close to covering a spread during their four-game tumble. The Illini are 5-0 (or 4-0-1, some have it) against the spread, although it’s worth bearing in mind they were 0-7 ATS at home in 2023. Four of five Illini games have gone under so far, but this is an excellent chance for the offense to break out.

The Picks

Purdue and the over.

Steve Greenberg, a columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times, has written about college sports since the early 1990s.