6 Key Numbers Ahead of Saturday's Illinois-Purdue Football Game

Dive into the digits that will matter most when the Illini host the Boilermakers on Saturday in Champaign

Sep 20, 2024; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) warms up before a game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

The 4-1 Illini have been one of the biggest surprises of this college football season.

After two Top 25 wins and a 4-0 start, Illinois faced a minor setback at Happy Valley in a 21-7 loss to No. 4 Penn State. Despite the reality check, the Illini appear to be in good shape to maintain their forward momentum against 1-4 Purdue on Saturday (2:30 p.m. CT).

What follows is a monster home matchup with Michigan a week later, on Oct. 19, in a game that could punch Illinois' ticket to a bowl and even – gasp! – legitimize hopes for a spot in the College Football Playoff. For a program that has posted one winning record since 2011, that development would mark a clear inflection point for the Illini and coach Bret Bielema. With all that in mind, here are six key numbers that may determine whether Bielema and the Illini will continue their winning ways.

25

Twenty-five was the point deficit last year when the Illini traveled to West Lafayette and took it on the chin against Purdue – a 44-19 thrashing at the hands of former Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, in his first matchup against his former team as a head coach. Revenge games are often fan constructions, but expect the Illini to have extra motivation to even the score Saturday at Memorial Stadium.

5

Specifically, +5. That’s the Illinois turnover margin through five games. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has thrown only one interception in 2024 – he threw seven picks through five games last season – and the Illini defense has forced 14 total turnovers. No wonder the Illini rank 13th in the nation in turnover margin per game. For Illinois to keep putting up Ws, that number – 5 – neeeds to keep climbing.

4

Illinois needs four more wins against Purdue to take over the lead in the schools' all-time series. Believe it or not, these programs have been going at it since 1890, and the Boilermakers hold the advantage in the series with a 48-45-6 record. It's looking good for the Illini to close the gap and regain control of the Canon Trophy.

0

Zero is Illinois' conversion rate in its last trip into the red zone, a mark that technically ranks worst in the country. We're teasing, of course. That failure – in the first half against Penn State – snapped an Illini streak of 36 straight red-zone scores, which had been the longest in the nation. But it will be no laughing matter if Illinois can't mount an efficient – if not explosive – offense to match the defense's output against elite competition. The task of recapturing the magic begins Saturday against a less-than-elite opponent.

9

You guessed it: That's Luke Altmyer's uniform number. Again, the Illini defense has been extremely sound this season, but the difference maker in 2024 has been the team's quarterback play. Altmyer’s current passing efficiency of 164.0 would be the best in Illinois history if he were able to maintain it through season's end.

70

That's Illinois' win percentage in one-score games over the last two seasons – kind of a bonkers number. With a 7-3 record over that stretch, Illinois has been undeniably excellent in close games. Is it sustainable? If so, the Illini are primed for their best season since 2001, when coach Ron Turner led them to a 10-2 record and a Sugar Bowl appearance.

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