Updated ESPN Power Index Projections See Upswing For Illinois

ESPN has updated its projections for the remainder of the Illinois football season.

Jul 23, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema speaks to the media during the Big 10 football media day at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

No. 19 Illinois (4-0) continues to shock the college football world.

It joined No. 5 Tennessee as the only two programs with multiple ranked wins thus far this season. An early achievement for some Power 4 schools, Illinois is embracing it each week.

The journey continues with a trip to face No. 9-ranked Penn State in Illinois' third rematch game. For coach Bret Bielema, it's the third meeting against the Nittany Lions in his four-year tenure. Bielema is seeking revenge from last year's 30-13 drubbing in Champaign, part of a slow start for a team which eventually missed a bowl appearance at 5-7.

Bielema led Illinois to an upset of the Nittany Lions in 2021, 20-18. It was the longest game in college football history and was capped with a two-point conversion from Brandon Peters to then-receiver Casey Washington.

With the past in the rearview mirror, the Illini tries to find more magic and silence a rabid Beaver Stadium crowd Saturday night on NBC. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. CT in Illinois' fourth night game in a five-game stretch.

Win or lose, Illinois gets a much-needed bye week before Memorial Stadium becomes the site of three home games in four weeks. The October portion includes a rematch of a 2022 meeting against the defending national champion No. 12 Michigan Wolverines before traveling out west to face Oregon the following week.

Illinois returns to Champaign in November to close its home schedule against Minnesota and Michigan State with a bye week in between. The Illini will close the regular season with a post-Thanksgiving tilt against in-state rival Northwestern, whom Bielema is seeking revenge against from last year's 45-43 season-ending defeat.

Illinois is one of six unbeaten Big Ten teams. Although it might be too early to tell which programs are becoming contenders, ESPN has a better idea about its remaining projections this season.

Saturday @ No. 9 Penn State

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 13.8 percent chance to win.

Despite Illinois' recent success, ESPN doesn't love its chances against a once-prominent Big Ten East powerhouse in Penn State. The current betting line agrees. The Illini have covered the spread in three out of four wins, but Saturday night differs. The Nittany Lions enter the matchup 18-point favorites, routing Kent State 56-0 last week. Before the shutout, they scored 34 points in each of their first two games, with wins against West Virginia and Bowling Green.

October 12th vs. Purdue

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 86.3 percent chance to win.

The Illini has another rematch game awaiting them after the bye week. For the first time since Nov. 2022, Purdue comes to Champaign with a chip on its shoulder. Illinois not only faces a mainstay Big Ten rival but welcomes ex-defensive-coordinator Ryan Walters back to Champaign for the first time since Nov. 2022. Walters took the Purdue coaching job at season's end and has his team off to a 1-2 start in his second year.

Purdue was picked to finish near the bottom of the FBS and was ranked as low as No. 88 in Fox Sports' Aug. 12 power rankings. Thus far, it's on par with the projection. After a shutout against Indiana State, it has lost back-to-back games against Notre Dame (66-7) and Oregon State (38-21). It opens Big Ten play Saturday against Nebraska, which dropped its first game against Illinois last week.

October 19th vs. No. 12 Michigan

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 38.2 percent chance to win.

Michigan has begun to overcome some growing pains with life after ex-coach Jim Harbaugh.

However, the Wolverines lost to now-No. 1 Texas earlier this month, which ended their undefeated run dating back to last season. Instead of folding under pressure, bounce-back home wins against unranked Arkansas State and No. 11 USC followed. ESPN projects Michigan to go 1-1 over its next two games – beating Minnesota and losing to Pac-12-turned-Big Ten member Washington. If these projections hold true, the Wolverines will enter Champaign with two losses. The pressure likely falls toward the Wolverines to win the game to keep their playoff and conference title chances afloat.

Illinois' last victory against the Wolverines came in October 2009, part of a back-to-back win in a home-and-home series. It has since dropped its last six tries, including a 45-0 shutout in 2012.

Bielema is 0-1 against the Wolverines during his tenure. Illinois nearly ended Michigan's postseason chances before losing the late-November game in regulation thanks to a Jake Moody game-winning field goal in the final seconds, 19-17.

October 26th @ No. 8 Oregon

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 15.1 percent chance to win.

ESPN is giving Illinois a little respect against the No. 8 Oregon Ducks, but not much. The game remains the toughest on the schedule, as the Ducks are on a fast track toward a conference title game in their first year in the Big Ten.

Boring a miracle, it will likely be an uphill battle for Bielema, quarterback Luke Altmyer and the defense to overcome.

November 2nd vs. Minnesota

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 64.7 percent chance to win.

ESPN expects Illinois to knock off Minnesota for the fourth straight time. The Illini have found ways to put proverbial dents in Minnesota's conference title hopes, including last season's meeting in Minneapolis. A John Paddock miracle touchdown saved Illinois' then-bowl hopes and reassured the Big Ten narrative surrounding P.J. Fleck and his inability to win close games with the season on the line.

November 16th vs. Michigan State

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 66.4 percent chance to win.

Under first-year coach Jonathan Smith, Michigan State sits at 3-1 with its lone defeat against Boston College. Given the Spartans' inexperience, ESPN favors Illinois to win on Senior Day ahead of back-to-back road games to close the season.

November 23rd @ Rutgers

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 46.4 percent chance to win.

Both Illinois and Rutgers are two of the league's biggest surprise teams. The Illini's chances to win in Piscataway have gone up since the preseason, but it is still too early to tell where both of these teams will end up near the end of November. Similar to Illinois, Rutgers is unbeaten through the beginning of the season thus far.

November 30th @ Northwestern (Wrigley Field)

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 70.9 percent chance to win.

Northwestern is off to a sluggish 2-2 start through four games under second-year coach David Braun. The Wildcats have had a monotony of issues offensively, including needing to make a quarterback change ahead of a win against Eastern Illinois Sept. 14. Similarly to the Rutgers projection, there is so much unknown about what position the Wildcats will be in by season's end. From an Illini perspective, they remain in the drivers' seat and have won two out of the last three meetings.

Let's see how accurate ESPN is. Right now, the projections for an Illini team that was picked to finish in the middle-to-lower half of the conference one month ago are being proven wrong.

Zain Bando is a contributor to Illinois Fighting Illini On SI. He can be reached at zainbando99@gmail.com or follow him on X @zainbando99

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