Last Dance: Indiana Opens As Modest Favorite in Final Home Game Against Rutgers

Indiana probably needs one more win to earn an NCAA Tournament berth, and the oddsmakers think that will come on Wednesday against Rutgers in the home finale. Remember this, though: Indiana has lost as the favorite six times this season. Here's what both teams have done versus the spread all year, with some interesting trends.

Tom Brew | Mar 2, 2022

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Almost there. That's what NCAA Tournament bracketologists are saying about Indiana right now. Win one more game, and you're in — for the first time in six years.

And that one win should come Wednesday night, when the Hoosiers host Rutgers in the final regular season home game of the year at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.

Thanks to wins over Maryland and Minnesota, the Hoosiers are now 18-10 overall and 9-9 in the Big Ten, but they need one more victory to feel secure about getting an NCAA Tournament bid. The oddsmakers think they will get that. The Hoosiers are 5-point favorites in the opening line on the SISportsbook.com gambling website. The over/under is 132.5.

Indiana hasn't always performed particularly well as the favorite this season, however. In six of their 10 losses — Syracuse, Penn State and Northwestern on the road, and Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin at home — they were favored to win but lost the games straight up.

The two teams played three times a year ago, with Rutgers winning every game, including in the first game of the Big Ten Tournament, where they were booed off the floor in Indianapolis and Archie Miller was fired a few days later.

Rutgers also won in Bloomington 74-70 a year ago — as a 5-point underdog.

"They did beat us three times last year, so obviously we want to get them back for that,'' Indiana senior guard Rob Phinisee said. "We're really looking forward to that and trying to get the win for Senior Night.''

"We know they play a really tough game. I know it's going to be a really physical game too, so I know we're prepared for them, and we'll be ready for them.''

Indiana is 15-13 against the point spread this season, and have been very good in Bloomington. The Hoosiers are 14-3 at home straight up and 12-5 vs. the spread at Assembly Hall. On the road, Indiana is just 3-7 straight up and 2-8 against the spread.

The Hoosiers finish the regular season at Purdue on Saturday afternoon, followed by the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis next weekend.

Here are Indiana's results thus far this season, both straight up and against the spread:

Nov. 9 — Beat Eastern Michigan 68-62 as a 24-point favorite (lost)
Nov. 12 — Beat Northern Illinois 85-49 as a 25.5-point favorite (won)
Nov. 17 — Beat St. John's 76-74 as a 6-point favorite (lost)
Nov. 21 — Beat Louisiana 76-44 as an 11.5-point favorite (won)
Nov. 23 — Beat Jackson State 70-35 as a 22.5-point favorite (won)
Nov. 27 — Beat Marshall 90-79 as a 10.5-point favorite (won)
Nov. 30 — Lost at Syracuse 112-110 as a 2.5-point favorite (lost)
Dec. 4 — Beat Nebraska 68-55 as an 11-point favorite (won)
Dec. 8 — Lost at No. 22 Wisconsin 64-59 as a 4.5-point underdog (lost)
Dec. 12 — Beat Merrimack 81-49 as a 20-point favorite (won)
Dec. 18 — Beat Notre Dame 64-56 in Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite (won)
Dec. 22 — Beat Northern Kentucky 79-61 as a 17-point favorite (won)
Jan. 2 — Lost at Penn State 61-58 as a 2.5-point favorite (lost)
Jan. 6 — Beat No. 13 Ohio State 67-51 as a 2-point favorite (won)
Jan. 9 — Beat Minnesota 73-60 as an 11-point favorite (won)
Jan. 13 — Lost at Iowa 83-74 as a 4.5-point underdog (lost)
Jan. 17 — Won at Nebraska 78-71 as a 9-point favorite (lost)
Jan. 20 — Beat No. 4 Purdue 68-65 as a 4-point underdog (won)
Jan. 23 — Lost to Michigan 80-62 as a 4-point favorite (lost)
Jan. 26 — Beat Penn State 74-57 as an 8.5-point favorite (won)
Jan. 29 — Won at Maryland 68-55 as a 1.5-point favorite (won)
Feb. 5 — Lost to No. 18 Illinois 74-57 as a 1.5-point favorite (lost)
Feb. 8 — Lost at Northwestern 59-51 as a 2-point favorite (lost)
Feb. 12 — Lost at No. 17 Michigan State 76-61 as a 4-point underdog (lost)
Feb. 15 — Lost to No. 15 Wisconsin 74-69 as a 3.5-point favorite (lost)
Feb. 21 — Lost at No. 22 Ohio State 80-69 in OT as a 7-point underdog (lost)
Feb. 24 — Beat Maryland 74-64 as a 6.5-point favorite (won)
Feb. 27 — Won at Minnesota 74-69 as a 3-point favorite (won)

Here's what Rutgers has done this season

Rutgers is 16-12 overall, and 10-8 in the Big Ten after losing three straight games. That's on the heels of winning four in a row against ranked teams, something that's never happened before in NCAA play by an unranked team.

The Scarlet Knights are 12-15-1 against the spread this season. They are 3-9 in true road games straight up and 3-8-1 against the spread.

Here's what the Scarlet Knights have done versus the number this season:

Nov. 10 — Beat Lehigh 73-70 in OT as a 20.5-point favorite (lost)
Nov. 13 — Beat Merrimack 48-35 as a 14-point favorite (lost)
Nov. 16 — Beat NJIT 75-61 as an 18.5-point favorite (lost)
Nov. 18 — Lost at DePaul 73-70 as a 3.5-point favorite (lost)
Nov. 22 — Lost to Lafayette 53-50 as a 19.5-point favorite (lost)
Nov. 27 — Lost at Massachusetts 85-83 as a 2.5-point favorite (lost)
Nov. 30— Beat Clemson 74-64 in ACC/Big Ten Challenge as a 1.5-point favorite (won)
Dec. 3 — Lost at Illinois 86-51 as a 9.5-point underdog (lost)
Dec. 9 — Beat No. 1 Purdue 70-68 as a 13.5-point underdog (won)
Dec. 12 — Lost at Seton Hall 77-63 as a 8.5-point favorite (lost)
Dec. 18 — Versus Rider cancelled (COVID)
Dec. 23 — Versus Central Connecticut postponed (COVID)
Dec. 30 — Beat Maine 80-64 as a 25.5-point favorite (lost)
Jan. 1— Beat Central Connecticut 79-48 as a 23.5-point favorite (won)
Jan. 4— Beat Michigan 75-67 as a 3.5-point underdog (won)
Jan. 8— Beat Nebraska 93-65 as a 8.5-point favorite (won)
Jan. 11— Lost at Penn State 66-49 as a 2.5-point underdog (lost)
Jan. 15 — Won at Maryland 70-59 as a 3.5-point underdog (won)
Jan. 19 — Beat Iowa 48-46 as a 3-point underdog (won)
Jan. 22 — Lost at Minnesota 68-65 as a 4.5-point favorite (lost)
Jan. 25 — Lost to Maryland 68-60 as a 3.5-point favorite (lost)
Jan. 29 — Won at Nebraska 63-61 as a 3.5-point favorite (lost)
Feb. 1 — Lost at Northwestern 79-78 in OT as a 5-point underdog (won)
Feb. 5 — Beat No. 13 Michigan State 83-64 as a 2.5-point underdog (won)
Feb. 9 — Beat No. 16 Ohio State 66-64 as a 3-point underdog (won)
Feb. 12 — Won at No. 14 Wisconsin 73-65 as an 8.5-point underdog (won)
Feb. 16 — Beat No. 12 Illinois 70-59 as a 4.5-point underdog (won)
Feb. 20 — Lost at No. 4 Purdue 84-72 as a 12-point underdog (push)
Feb. 24 — Lost at Michigan 71-62 as a 5-point underdog (lost)
Feb. 26 — Lost to No. 13 Wisconsin 66-61 as a 1.5-point favorite (lost)

Here's what Rutgers has done this season

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