Indiana-Purdue Basketball Q&A: Key Matchups, Storylines, Predictions

Indiana Hoosiers On SI writer Jack Ankony previews Friday’s in-state rivalry game by answering questions with Purdue Boilermakers On SI writer Dustin Schutte.

Purdue's Braden Smith (3) guarded by Indiana's Trey Galloway (32) at Mackey Arena. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – One of college basketball’s best rivalries will be renewed at 8 p.m. ET Friday at Mackey Arena as No. 10 Purdue hosts Indiana. 

Despite losing two-time national player of the year Zach Edey, Purdue (16-5, 8-2) is still in contention for a Big Ten title and has its sights set on another deep NCAA Tournament run under coach Matt Painter. The Boilermakers lost their first home game of the season on Jan. 21 to Ohio State, 73-70, following their two-game west coast road trip. But they won their first 10 home games, including seven by 17-plus points, and most recently blew out No. 21 Michigan, 91-64.

Indiana is 2-3 in Big Ten road games, beating Ohio State and Penn State but falling to Northwestern, Iowa and Nebraska by nine-plus points. Coach Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers have lost four of their last five games after Sunday’s late-game collapse at home against Maryland.

Woodson has a 3-3 record against Purdue, but the Boilermakers won last season’s matchups by 20 and 21 points. Indiana Hoosiers On SI writer Jack Ankony and Purdue Boilermakers On SI writer Dustin Schutte preview Friday’s game below. 

What does this game mean for each team in the big-picture context of this season?

Ankony: As an NCAA Tournament bubble team, every game is important the rest of the way for Indiana. The Hoosiers’ resume lacks quality wins, as they have a 2-7 record in Quad 1 games with wins over fellow bubble teams Penn State and Ohio State. Purdue has the highest NET ranking in the Big Ten at No. 9, so a win at Mackey Arena would go a long way for Indiana. In that sense, Friday’s game is similar to the other nine conference games left on Indiana’s schedule. But the in-state rivalry aspect always increases the stakes for both teams and adds to the intrigue for fans. 

Schutte: Purdue still has its eye on winning a third straight Big Ten regular season title. Since the Boilermakers let one slip away last week to Ohio State, beating Indiana inside Mackey Arena is critical in their pursuit of another championship. Honestly, the Boilers have enough quality wins on the schedule that I don’t believe a loss to the Hoosiers hurts them too much — maybe it would temporarily drop them a seed line in the NCAA Tournament bracket projections. But the bigger picture for Purdue is to stay within striking distance of Michigan State in the conference race, which would require a win over Indiana Friday.

Which player gives Purdue the biggest advantage in this matchup?

Schutte: Braden Smith has been playing at a completely different level since Big Ten play resumed this month. In the last eight conference games, the junior guard is averaging 16.8 points, 9.4 assists, 5.0 rebounds and 2.8 steals per contest. Smith is hunting his shot now, making him a much deadlier offensive threat. Where he’s really making a difference, though, is on the defensive end. His ability to disrupt the passing lanes and create turnovers is leading to more transition opportunities and fastbreak points for Purdue during this stretch of Big Ten play.

Purdue's Braden Smith (3) celebrates with Myles Colvin (5) against Michigan at Mackey Arena. / Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ankony: It’s got to be Smith. He’d be my current pick for Big Ten player of the year, and he’s in the race for first-team All-American status. Some wondered how he’d be affected by Zach Edey’s departure, and he’s only improved, leading the Big Ten in assists and steals and becoming a more assertive scorer. Indiana’s defense does not always seem to be on the same page, and that’s a concern going up against Smith, who may be able to pick the Hoosiers apart in the pick-and-roll game.

Which Hoosier could give Purdue the most problems?

Ankony: Oumar Ballo has been Indiana’s most consistent player this season, and Purdue does not have a great matchup for him. Trey Kaufman-Renn is arguably the Big Ten’s most improved player this season, but at 6-foot-9 and 230 pounds he’s giving up a lot of size to the 7-foot, 265-pound Ballo. Purdue’s matchup against Ballo becomes even more challenging if Kaufman-Renn gets in foul trouble. Caleb Furst will likely spend some time on Ballo, too, but he’s at a similar size disadvantage. While it hasn’t hurt them in the big picture this season, this is where the season-ending injury to 7-foot-4 center Daniel Jacobsen hurts the Boilermakers. Painter doesn’t seem to fully trust 7-foot-2 center Will Berg with significant minutes yet. Raleigh Burgess, a 6-foot-11 freshman, could also spend time against Ballo.

Indiana's Oumar Ballo (11) dunks against Iowa at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Schutte: There might be two answers to this question. The first is Oumar Ballo, purely because of his size and ability to work in the paint. Purdue (oddly) doesn’t have a player of Ballo’s size on the interior, which could cause problems on the glass. The Boilers will want to do their work early and try to keep Ballo off the block on the offensive end. Another player who could pose some problems is Luke Goode because of his ability to hit shots from the perimeter. At times, we’ve seen Purdue give up big games to shot-makers, even at home.

Who could be the ‘X-factor’ players for both Indiana and Purdue?

Schutte: On the Purdue side, I think Caleb Furst could be someone who has a big night. His statistics don’t catch your attention — averaging just 4.9 points and 3.0 rebounds per game on the season. However, he’s been a huge difference-maker on the defensive end, with the ability to guard all five positions on the court. He also has a knack for being around the basketball. Even if he’s not the one grabbing a rebound or loose ball, he’s usually in the scrum. Anthony Leal is the guy who interests me the most from Indiana. When he’s playing well, the Hoosiers are a better team. He’s another player who isn’t driven by stats, but can make a huge difference on the court. 

Indiana's Anthony Leal (3) celebrates against Winthrop at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Ankony: I’ll go with Mackenzie Mgbako. He’s had an up-and-down sophomore season, scoring 20 and 16 points in the last two games, respectively, following a four-game stretch in which he averaged just four points and shot 4 for 29. He has eight games with 16-plus points this season but six with six points or fewer. Though he still struggles on the defensive end, Mgbako is arguably Indiana’s most talented offensive player. It’s just a matter of consistency. Purdue’s starting lineup doesn’t have a great matchup for the 6-foot-9 Mgbako, but it could be a game where Cam Heide, a 6-foot-7 wing who plays solid defense, earns more minutes off the bench.

What needs to happen for Indiana to pull off the upset?

Ankony: Defensively, Indiana has to do a much better job defending the 3-point line than it did the last two games, allowing Maryland and Northwestern to shoot a combined 25 for 51. Purdue ranks just 261st in 3-point attempts per game, but it makes the most of that by shooting 38.4%, good for 19th nationally. The game will get out of hand quickly if Indiana allows Purdue to hit a few early 3-pointers in front of a raucous crowd. Indiana’s defensive communication and connectivity has to be at its best Friday night. Offensively, Indiana’s two biggest matchup advantages are with Ballo and Mgbako. If Ballo is controlling the paint and Mgbako’s shot is falling, Indiana can hang around.

Indiana's Mackenzie Mgbako (21) drives against Ohio State at Value City Arena. / Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Schutte: Taking care of the basketball and winning the battle in the paint have to be top priorities for Indiana if it wants to upset Purdue in Mackey Arena. The Boilers have thrived on the defensive end by forcing teams into turnovers and stealing points with extra possessions. Purdue has also done an excellent job of keeping teams out of the painted area over the last eight games. Additionally, the Boilers have struggled with teams that shoot the passing lanes defensively and get them out of a rhythm offensively. Even if that’s not IU’s bread and butter on the defensive end, it might be worth a shot to disrupt Purdue’s flow.

What’s your final score prediction?

Schutte: Purdue 77, Indiana 62

Ankony: Purdue 84, Indiana 70

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• BIG TEN GRADES: Todd Golden assesses the Big Ten teams at the halfway mark. CLICK HERE.

• JACK'S TAKE: Low morale is a concern for Indiana going forward. CLICK HERE.

• IU AT MACKEY, PART 1: The first of a three-part series on Indiana’s history playing on the home court of arch-rival Purdue. Mackey Arena highs and lows through the years. CLICK HERE

• IU AT MACKEY, PART 2: Bob Knight and Gene Keady's twice-annual battles defined two decades of the rivalry. CLICK HERE.