Is Indiana Men’s Basketball Better Than Penn State?

In this series, Hoosiers On SI examines where Indiana basketball stands against its Big Ten foes. Today, we look at how the Hoosiers stack up against the Nittany Lions.

Penn State Nittany Lions guard Ace Baldwin Jr. (1) calls a play as Indiana Hoosiers guard Gabe Cupps (2) defends during the second half at Target Center. / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – This story is part of a series that will run through October. Is Indiana better than each of its Big Ten opponents?

Nine categories were chosen so there can be no ambiguity. There will be no ties in individual categories. Think of it like you would the Supreme Court.

The categories: Point guard play, free throw shooting, inside scoring, perimeter shooting, rebounding, perimeter defense, rim protection, how much proven Power Five talent is on the roster, and intangibles.

The daily series will cover both the men’s and women’s basketball teams, and it will alternate between the teams.

Today, we compare Indiana to Penn State.

The Nittany Lions, whether coached by Micah Shrewsberry (now at Notre Dame) or current coach Mike Rhoades, have given Indiana fits in the last two seasons. Indiana has gone 1-4 against Penn State in that period.

The mystery is deepened when you consider that the 2023 Nittany Lions had a different coach and largely different personnel than the 2024 team did, and yet, Penn State controlled the Hoosiers. Indiana’s only win was a two-point victory at the 2024 Big Ten Tournament.

One thing Penn State did was play a distinctive style. Under Shrewsberry, Penn State spread the floor and shot threes against Indiana. Under Rhoades, Penn State still shot threes, but also used applied occasional pressure to keep opposition guards off-balance.

Rhoades is back for more for the 2024-25 season with a full year to establish his system and with largely the same players. Indiana plays Penn State twice again, including a cool trip to Philadelphia’s Palestra for the Pennsylvania leg – it will be interesting if Indiana’s talent infusion is enough to help the Hoosiers turn the tide.   

Here’s how the battle between the Hoosiers and Nittany Lions shakes out.

• Point guard play – Myles Rice is a star-to-be in the Big Ten for Indiana, but Penn State’s Ace Baldwin Jr. is a Big Ten star that is. A preseason All-Big Ten second-team selection, Baldwin (14.2 ppg, 6 apg) is a talisman for Rhoades. He came with him from Virginia Commonwealth, so think of him like you might Indiana football’s James Madison transfers.

The Baldwin-Rice battle will be a fun one to watch when these teams meet, but this isn’t just a one-on-one proposition. Indiana also has Trey Galloway and Gabe Cupps who can handle the rock. Depth tips this one to the Hoosiers. Edge: Indiana.

• Free throw shooting – This is a category that Indiana is going to have a hard time winning against anyone. Mackenzie Mgbako (82.1%) and Rice (81.1%) are the only Hoosiers who shot over 70% at the line in 2024. Meanwhile, Baldwin (82.6%), Zach Hicks (81.3%), Puff Johnson (78.5%) and D’Marco Dunn (73.8%) are regular contributors who top 70% for the Nittany Lions. Edge: Penn State.

• Inside scoring – Well-traveled Penn State 2024 starter Qudus Wahab (9.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg) ended his career on a high note and is out of eligibility, which leaves 6-foot-8 Hicks (8.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) as the only proven scorer with any kind of paint presence. That won’t fly against Oumar Ballo (12.9 ppg, 10.1 rpg) and Malik Reneau (15.4 ppg, 6 rpg) in the lane. Edge: Indiana.

Penn State Nittany Lions guard D'Marco Dunn (2) shoots the ball as Maryland Terrapins forward Donta Scott (24) defends during the first half at Bryce Jordan Center. / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

• Perimeter shooting – Indiana improved in the perimeter shooting department, but every returning regular on the Nittany Lions shot 30% or better from beyond the arc. Dunn (36.6%) leads the way as Hicks (34.2%), Puff Johnson (33.3%), Baldwin (32.9%) and Nick Kern (31.6%) all clear the 30% bar.

The only players on Indiana’s roster who can claim the same are Luke Goode (38.9% at Illinois), Mackenzie Mgbako (32.7%) and Carlyle (32% at Stanford). Edge: Penn State.

• Rebounding – Penn State ranked dead-last in conference-only rebounding at 28.3 per game. It remains a weakness especially in comparison to Indiana who can count on Ballo (7.7 rpg) and Reneau (7.3 rpg) to control the glass. Edge: Indiana.

• Perimeter defense – Both schools were surprisingly good at defending the arc in conference games. Penn State ranked 2nd (31.9%) and Indiana was 3rd (32.6%) in 3-point defense. Baldwin (2.7 steals) was a defensive pest too. One thing Indiana will be able to do in 2024-25 that it couldn’t do as much in 2023-24 is play a lot of players in the backcourt, but Penn State can apply pressure and it gets the edge. Edge: Penn State.

• Defense at the rim – Penn State was better at blocking shots than it was at rebounding in 2024, but that almost entirely due to Wahab (1.6 bpg in Big Ten play) and he wasn’t replaced with a proven rim-protector. Ballo alone gives Indiana an advantage in this category. Edge: Indiana.

• Proven Power 5 ability on roster – The standard here is whether a player averaged 25 minutes or more at the Power Five level at their current or former school.

Indiana has proven Power Five players in Ballo, Carlyle, Galloway, Mgbako, Reneau and Rice. Baldwin and Hicks are the only Nittany Lions who clear the 25-minute bar. Edge: Indiana.

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Mike Rhoades looks on during the second half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Rec Hall. Penn State defeated Illinois 90-89. / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

• Intangibles – One thing to like about Penn State is stability. Rare in college basketball in the transfer portal era, the Nittany Lions return nearly everyone who could come back and who played 18 minutes or more. The only exception is guard Kanye Clary (16.7 ppg), but he parted ways with Penn State before the 2024 was completed, so it’s debatable whether he counts.

Teams with that kind of returning experience together have fared well in the Big Ten in recent years and it’s a vital trait for the non-traditional basketball powers. Northwestern has had similar lack of turnover. Nebraska had it last season. Both were surprise top-half Big Ten finishers.

At a higher level of performance, Purdue had similar lack of roster churn and that stability was part of the reason the Boilermakers who could maximum advantage of Zach Edey to ride their shared experience to a national runner-up finish.

When you return your point guard, as Penn State does with Baldwin, it’s so much the better. I don’t think any of the above will make Penn State a better team than Indiana overall, but it helps them win this category. Edge: Penn State.

• Verdict – This is the closest battle yet for the Hoosiers as they nip the Nittany Lions 5-4. Penn State isn’t going to rate highly in analytics (barttorvik.com has Penn State rated a Big Ten-worst 74th nationally in its preseason projection), but they have a lot of returning experience and a good point guard. That can take a team a long way … just not far enough to get the Nittany Lions past the Hoosiers.

Previous Is Indiana Better Than Men's Basketball Results

Oregon – Indiana 7-2.

Rutgers – Indiana 7-2.

Maryland – Indiana 6-3.

USC – Indiana 6-3.

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