Is Indiana Women’s Basketball Better Than USC?

In this series, Hoosiers On SI examines where Indiana basketball stands against its Big Ten foes. Today, we look at how the Hoosiers stack up against superstar JuJu Watkins and the Trojans.

USC Trojans guard JuJu Watkins (12) drives to the basket during the second half against Baylor Lady Bears guard Bella Fontleroy (22) in the semifinals of the Portland Regional of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at the Moda Center. / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – This story continues a series that will run for much of October. Is Indiana better than each of its Big Ten opponents?

Nine categories were chosen so there can be no ambiguity on which team is better. There will be no ties in individual categories. Think of it like you would the Supreme Court.

The categories: Point guard play, free throw shooting, inside scoring, perimeter shooting, rebounding, perimeter defense, rim protection, how much proven Power Five talent is on the roster, and intangibles.

The daily series will cover both the men’s and women’s basketball teams, and it will alternate between the teams.

Southern California, better known as USC, is next. New to the Big Ten, the Trojans (or Women Of Troy) arguably bring the most buzz to the league via their women’s basketball team.

If you recall the circus that occurred at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall the last three seasons when Iowa and Caitlin Clark came to Bloomington, get ready for more as superstar guard JuJu Watkins brings her game to Indiana on Jan. 19.

Watkins – the Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year and very likely to earn similar national honors when they’re released – doesn’t have a weakness in her game. She was a first team All-American and the Ann Meyers Drysdale Shooting Guard of the Year as a freshman.

After Watkins, USC has an interesting mix. Center-forward Rayah Marshall averaged a double-double. Stanford transfer forward Kiki Iraifen – who joined Watkins on the Preseason All-Big Ten team and was the Pac-12 Most Improved Player – also notched a double-double. Guard Talia von Oelhoffen, a transfer from Oregon State, adds another distributor.

They are added to a seven-player freshman class that includes four players ranked in the top 50 in the women’s recruiting rankings. It’s the top-rated freshman class in the nation.

Here’s how the battle between the Hoosiers and Trojans shakes out.

Oregon State Beavers guard Talia von Oelhoffen (22) passes the ball against South Carolina Gamecocks guard Raven Johnson (25) during the first half in the finals of the Albany Regional of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at MVP Arena. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

• Point guard play – USC will depend on von Oelhoffen. At Oregon State, the 5-11 distributor averaged 10.7 points and 5 assists, good enough to be All-Pac-12 in 2024. She was one of nine players in the country to top 12 points, 4 assists and 4 rebounds against top 25 teams.

Chloe Moore-McNeil (10.2 ppg, 5 apg, 3.6 rpg) is right with von Oelhoffen in production. They’re both elite defenders, too. Both were ranked top 50 nationally in total assists. While von Oelhoffen gets the edge in points, Moore-McNeil is better in assist-to-turnover ratio.

You can’t go wrong with either floor general, and you have to go deep down the tiebreaker checklist to pick a winner. Moore-McNeil slips ahead based on her shooting. The Indiana point guard converts 46.4% of her shots and 40.9% of her 3-point shots. Von Oelhoffen is a 38.7% overall and 31.7% 3-point shooter. Edge: Indiana.

• Free throw shooting – Indiana boasts Shay Ciezki (90.2%), Sydney Parrish (79.2%) and Moore-McNeil (76.1%) as 70-plus percent shooters at the line. USC counters with von Oelhoffen (88.9%), Watkins (85.2%) and Iriafen (77.3%). Another close call, but this category goes ever so slightly to the Trojans. Edge: USC.

USC Trojans guard Destiny Littleton (11) defends against a shot by Stanford Cardinal forward Kiki Iriafen (44) during the first half at Maples Pavilion. / John Hefti-Imagn Images

• Inside scoring – Iriafen (19.4 ppg at Stanford) and Marshall (10.2 ppg) are a pretty potent combo for the Women Of Troy in the paint. Indiana is banking on the potential of Lilly Meister, who will be good, but USC’s proven inside scoring gives them the edge. Edge: USC.

• Perimeter shooting – This is interesting. If you go purely by 3-point percentage, Indiana has Yarden Garzon (42.2%), Moore-McNeil (40.9%) and Parrish (40%) at 40% or better. USC doesn’t have a single player who has shot that well in college.

However, perimeter shooting isn’t just threes. By pure volume, Watkins can overwhelm any team. She takes 22.4 shots per game, just under Clark’s 22.7 shots per game in 2024. Watkins makes 40.1% of her attempts. She’s not an elite 3-point shooter, but 31.9% from long range means opponents have to account for her shot, which opens up driving lanes for Watkins. Edge: USC.

• Rebounding – With Iriafen (11 rpg, she rebounded right at her average in Stanford’s 96-64 win over Indiana on Nov. 12, 2023) and Marshall (10.5 rpg), USC brings two players that averaged more than 4.5 rpg than Indiana’s leading returning rebounder, Sydney Parrish (6 rpg). Hard to really argue with that advantage. Edge: USC.

• Perimeter defense – Watkins and von Oelhoffen both rated very highly in the advanced box plus-minus metric. Both were over 5 at their respective schools, meaning they defended at an elite level. Indiana counters with Parrish (4.4), Lexus Bargesser (4.4) and Moore-McNeil (4.2).

USC may have other elite-level defenders among their freshmen, but they haven’t proven it yet. You’d take the defense from either of these backcourts. We’ll give the slightest edge to Indiana for having more proven strength in numbers. Edge: Indiana.

USC Trojans center Rayah Marshall (13) shoots a basket during the second half against Baylor Lady Bears guard Darianna Littlepage-Buggs (5) in the semifinals of the Portland Regional of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at the Moda Center. / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

• Defense at the rim – With Mackenzie Holmes (1.6 bpg) gone, the Hoosiers lost their best shot blocker. Meister did block shots at a similar clip to Holmes if you go by the per-40-minute metric – Holmes was at 2.2, Meister at 2.1. However, the per-40-minute sword cuts both ways. Marshall (2.2 bpg overall) is at 2.9 blocks-per-40. Edge: USC.

• Proven Power 5 ability on roster – The standard here is whether a player averaged 25 minutes or more at the Power Five level at their current or former school.

The Hoosiers and Trojans tie at four players apiece. Garzon, Parrish, Moore-McNeil, and Ciezki qualify for Indiana. Iriafen, Marshall, Von Oelhoffen, and Watkins make the cut for USC.

Tiebreaker would go to the next-most experienced player on the roster for either team. Bargesser (21.6 mpg) easily beats out USC’s Clarice Akunwafo (11.1 mpg). Edge: Indiana.

• Intangibles – The intangibles that USC has are almost all positive matters. How good can Watkins be as a sophomore? Can the Trojans handle the national spotlight after their Sweet 16 run in 2024?

Their freshman class is very intriguing. Guard Kennedy Smith (No. 6), guard Kayleigh Heckel (No. 13), guard Avery Howell (No. 23) and forward Vivian Iwuchukwu (No. 47) were all top 50 in the Class of 2025 rankings. Another guard, Rian Forstier averaged 25.8 points and 13.9 in high school.

At least one of those freshmen is going to emerge as a major contributor, something that’s hard to account for in the above categories where weight is given to proven production. Edge: USC.

• Verdict – Indiana falls by a 6-3 count, the Hoosiers’ second loss in this series. There’s no shame in it. USC is the preseason conference favorite, and Watkins is the Big Ten preseason Player of the Year. One thing USC will have to prove in its first go-around in the Big Ten is whether it can win in far-away Big Ten venues like Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Indiana will get its chance to make it hard on the Trojans when they visit on Jan. 19.

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