Jack’s Take: Indiana Resumes Big Ten Play With Persistent Concerns

Indiana doesn’t have any Quad 1 wins entering 2025, and many of its early season struggles still exist.

Indiana coach Mike Woodson against Winthrop at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – As the calendar turns to 2025, Indiana has played itself into an unfavorable position.

The Hoosiers wrapped up their nonconference schedule Sunday with a 77-68 win over Winthrop, the same margin of victory it had Dec. 21 against Chattanooga. Those wins felt more like a relief that Indiana avoided disastrous losses to mid-major opponents and than signs of good things to come as the level of competition increases.

Nonconference play is over, and 18 Big Ten games await. Taken at face value, Indiana’s 10-3 overall record and 1-1 start to Big Ten play does not scream concern. Fifteen of the Big Ten’s 18 teams have already suffered at least one loss in conference play, and Indiana is one of 10 teams with double-digit wins. 

But look closer, and the concerns are obvious. Indiana is No. 66 in the NET rankings, with an 0-2 record against Quad 1 opponents and a 1-1 record in Quad 2 games. Among Big Ten teams, Indiana is 14th in the NET rankings and one of just five teams with one or fewer wins in Quad 1 and 2. 

For historical perspective, Rutgers in 2022 became the lowest-ranked team to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, coming in at No. 77 in the NET. However, the Scarlet Knights were left out the following year despite being ranked 40th. No. 28 Indiana State missed the tournament last year, and No. 54 Virginia was the lowest-ranked team to earn an at-large bid. In 2023, that was Pittsburgh at 67th. 

There’s no exact benchmark Indiana must reach – and NET is not the only consideration – but it has an uphill climb to building a tournament-worthy resume. Indiana finds itself in this spot after loading up its nonconference schedule with a trip to the Bahamas and whiffing. Yet another double-digit loss to Nebraska hurt, too.

After Indiana’s disappointing showing in the Battle 4 Atlantis, when it was ranked 14th in the AP poll, expectations had to be reset. Indiana was once widely considered a Big Ten title contender as it was picked to finish second in the preseason conference poll. ESPN’s Bracketology tabbed Indiana as a No. 5 seed before the season, but now simply reaching the tournament will be a major challenge.

Indiana is not even included as one of the first eight teams out in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, and the Hoosiers are projected to go 17-14 overall and 8-12 in Big Ten play by KenPom and Bart Torvik. That certainly would not be enough for an at-large bid. 

Following Indiana’s losses in the Bahamas, I wrote that perhaps the best reason for optimism around Indiana is that no season’s success or failure is determined in November. Nearly a month later, that’s still true, but time is running out fast and things must change quickly.

After his 18-point performance Sunday against Winthrop, point guard Myles Rice addressed whether Indiana has a greater sense of urgency with Big Ten games the rest of the way.

“You've just got to focus on the next game,” Rice said. “I mean, we can look at all the stats and the numbers can tell you everything. But at the end of the day, if you win the game that's in front of you and you keep winning, that solves 99.9% of the problems. For us, it's just taking it day-by-day. We're not getting too caught up in the metrics, and like I said, we've got Rutgers next, and they are a really good team. Get back into Big Ten play and just focus on them.”

Going into Big Ten play, Indiana’s best wins are over No. 72 Providence and No. 85 South Carolina, per the NET rankings – opponents that will do little, if anything, to help its tournament resume. That will have to be accomplished in conference play.

In some ways, the Big Ten looks less intimidating than recent seasons, because it lacks a dominant team at the top. Purdue is not the powerhouse it was when it cruised to back-to-back conference titles by three games, but the conference is more well-rounded and stronger at its core. That’s good and bad for Indiana. No team is unbeatable, but any loss would be unsurprising.

Oregon leads the way at No. 9 in the AP poll, followed by No. 15 UCLA, No. 18 Michigan State, No. 20 Purdue and No. 22 Illinois. In the NET rankings, Illinois is first among Big Ten teams at No. 9, and 13 teams rank within the top 50, excluding Indiana. Rutgers, USC, Washington and Minnesota are the only teams below Indiana in the NET, and those opponents make up just four of Indiana’s 20 conference games. On a nightly basis in the Big Ten, just about anybody can beat anybody. 

But roughly two months into the season, Indiana hasn’t shown it can fix its biggest flaws. Woodson said after losing to Gonzaga that Indiana’s team with seven new players is still working through things, and it still feels that way a month later. There are few strengths, if any, that Indiana has been able to lean on consistently.

Over the last three games, Indiana has made just 14-of-75 3-point attempts, or 18.6%, and it ranks 307th nationally on the season at 30.6%. That was one of the biggest questions going into the season – and an area Woodson addressed in recruiting – but it hasn’t been solved. Luke Goode and Mackenzie Mgbako are arguably Indiana’s best 3-point shooters, and on Sunday they combined to go 1 for 14.

Improved guard play was a reason for optimism in the preseason, and Rice has given Indiana’s offense a dimension it severely lacked last year despite his inconsistencies, with six games of 17-plus points and six games of six points or fewer. Kanaan Carlyle was supposed to help in that respect, too, but he’s been a letdown, averaging just 5.1 points on 31.7% shooting.

Malik Reneau and Oumar Ballo are capable of being one of the Big Ten’s best interior duos, but Reneau dealt with foul trouble throughout the Winthrop game, a flashback to what he struggled with most early in his career. Woodson didn’t want to address Ballo’s absence Sunday, a concern regardless of the reason.

But perhaps the biggest cause of Indiana’s shortcomings is its defense. The Hoosiers still seem to play with a lack of urgency, reflected through its disconnected defensive play and lackluster rebounding. Those were major issues in the Bahamas, allowing 89 points in back-to-back games, and Indiana is still trying to find that defensive cohesion. That shows the risks involved with bringing in seven new players. 

“I think on the offensive end, we are as talented and we have as much firepower as anybody in the country. But it doesn't take just one side of the floor. It takes the other side as well. So we have to be playing better defense,” Rice said. “We have to contain the ball more from the perimeter guys. And down low, we've just got to make it harder for those guys to catch the ball so that way we are not playing from the back side or giving them easy looks. It's not just one collective thing or one person doing one thing. It's like we all have to do our jobs better, and that's on the defensive side for sure and we've also got to rebound better.”

Going into the season, I thought Indiana brought in enough talent to safely finish in the top five of the Big Ten and contend for the conference title. Woodson said it was his most talented team, too. Barring a significant turnaround, that type of finish is out of the equation.

Now the question is whether the talent was overrated, or Indiana is wasting it. Regardless, the results are far short of the standards set by Indiana fans and the program itself. It’s a long season, and Indiana still has 18 Big Ten games to pick up the quality wins it lacks now. But the first 13 games haven’t inspired confidence the Hoosiers will rise to the challenge.

Related stories on Indiana basketball

• AP TOP 25 POLL: Indiana still isn’t near the top 25, but the Hoosiers increased their point total from last week's poll. CLICK HERE

• RECRUITING NEWS: Anthony Thompson, a 6-foot-7 small forward who's considered one of the best players in the class of 2026, visited Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall for Indiana's game Sunday against Winthrop. CLICK HERE

• 3-POINT SHOOTING STRUGGLES: Sunday’s 1-for-20 3-point shooting day might be Indiana’s worst under coach Mike Woodson, but there have been similar performances. CLICK HERE

• INDIANA GETS BY WINTHROP: Game story from Indiana's 77-68 victory over Winthrop. CLICK HERE

• WHAT WOODSON SAID: Mike Woodson's comments to the media after Indiana improved to 10-3 on the season. CLICK HERE.