Jack’s Take: Weak Big Ten Provides Opportunity For Flawed Indiana

Indiana’s play through 13 games in 2023 provided moments of both excitement and exasperation. Entering 2024, they are expected to sit in the middle of a jumbled Big Ten in a year that appears to be a down one for the conference, providing hope for an up and down Indiana team.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Skimming through Indiana’s 2024 schedule reveals toss up after toss up. That’s because the Big Ten simply isn’t as talented as past seasons.

Perhaps no game is more indicative of that than Indiana at Nebraska on Wednesday. Nebraska is 11-2 and has already won more games than it did in each of coach Fred Hoiberg’s first three seasons. But ranking 297th in strength of schedule, plus a 29-point beatdown at home against Creighton and a loss at Minnesota, makes the Cornhuskers difficult to fully trust just yet. Nebraska could also be without injured starting center Rienk Mast, who’s averaging 13 points and 9.9 rebounds.

The same skepticism applies to Indiana, which is 10-3 but hasn’t defeated a team better than 9-4 Maryland or 6-7 Michigan – bubble teams at best. A few of its mid-major opponents like Morehead State or Kennesaw State may win their conference, but Indiana’s résumé lacks any signature wins. The 10 wins they’ve secured haven’t been particularly convincing, either. Yet Indiana has reason to be optimistic because most Big Ten teams aren’t very good, and the Hoosiers will get their starting point guard back soon to pair with a strong front court.

Just look at what the Big Ten achieved, or didn’t, in nonconference play. Sure, No. 1 Purdue has the best résumé in the country, with seven nonconference wins over teams ranked in the top 100 of KenPom. But after that, Wisconsin and Michigan State have three wins fitting that criteria, and the rest of the conference has two or fewer. Indiana, Minnesota and Penn State have zero. Seven Big Ten teams have also suffered losses to mid-major opponents, something Indiana was able to avoid despite several close calls.

From a pure talent perspective, no one in the Big Ten is a lock to be an NBA first-round pick. The conference had at least seven players drafted each of the last three years, and it may struggle to reach that number this year. Purdue’s Zach Edey will earn All-American honors again, but any other Big Ten player hoping to join him has work to do.

The calendar only just turned to 2024, and 18 Big Ten games remain. A lot can change from now until March. But the conference’s early struggles create a double-edged sword for Indiana. The Hoosiers will have a chance against nearly every opponent in Big Ten play. They will also have fewer opportunities at Quad 1 wins to boost that résumé, and simply going .500 in Big Ten play may not be enough for an NCAA Tournament bid like it’s been in recent seasons. Letting a win over Kansas slip away in the final minutes could sting even more in March.

Again, Purdue is the Big Ten’s top dog this year, with Edey on pace to win his second consecutive National Player of the Year award and growth from now-sophomore guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. Matt Painter’s Boilermakers are the heavy favorite to win back-to-back Big Ten regular season titles and their fourth since 2017.

But after Purdue, picking the Big Ten’s second-best team – third, fourth, fifth and sixth, too – is a guessing game. It was Illinois, though potential All-American guard Terrence Shannon Jr. was recently suspended following a rape charge. Potentially losing his 21.7 points per game for the rest of the season puts a major question mark on Illinois, ranked No. 9 in Monday’s AP poll.

After that, Wisconsin and Ohio State are in an interesting position where they’re relying on internal improvement from core groups that missed the NCAA Tournament last year, but impactful transfer portal additions add a new layer. For the Badgers, that’s been St. John’s transfer AJ Storr, a 6-foot-6 guard leading them at 15 points per game. Ohio State added Minnesota transfer Jamison Battle, a former All-Big Ten wing scoring 14.3 per game for the Buckeyes.

Northwestern defeated No. 1 Purdue and has All-Big Ten guard Boo Buie, but it also lost at home to Chicago State, arguably the nation’s worst program in the last decade. That loss will stick with the Wildcats all the way until Selection Sunday.

And what about Michigan State, the preseason No. 4 team in the country? Tom Izzo’s squad is on a four-game win streak after starting 4-5 with losses to James Madison, Nebraska and Wisconsin. The Spartans got back on track with a win over No. 18 Baylor, but they were clearly overrated after last year’s Sweet 16 run. The remaining six Big Ten teams – Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Rutgers and Penn State – have an uphill battle just to join the NCAA Tournament conversation.

So what does IU need to do to capitalize on what looks like a down year for the Big Ten?

It starts with doing a better job defending the 3-point line, but history hasn’t been kind to Mike Woodson-coached teams in that area. In both of his first two seasons, Indiana allowed the third most 3-pointers in the Big Ten. Through 13 games this year, Indiana is first in 3-pointers allowed, 120, which is 12 more than the next team and at least 38 more than half of the conference. The eventual return of Xavier Johnson could strengthen Indiana’s perimeter defense, but Woodson’s defense seems more focused on clogging the lane and stopping drives than limiting open threes.

Indiana scored 100 and 83 points in its last two wins over Kennesaw State and North Alabama, respectively. The victories highlighted promising performances from a new group that spent much of the first 13 games learning to play together. And with All-Big Ten caliber post players Malik Reneau and Kel’el Ware, Indiana has a better front court than most of the conference. Getting Johnson back and his roughly 10 points per game should also help, as he’ll take some pressure off Trey Galloway and Gabe Cupps on a nightly basis.

Whether Indiana reaches its full potential depends on what it gets from Mackenzie Mgbako. The freshman is clearly a special offensive talent, seen through his double-digit scoring in eight consecutive games. He may be Indiana’s top 3-point shooter by season’s end, but Woodson has benched him at times due to defensive lapses that have been present all season.

It’s too early to draw any sweeping conclusions about Indiana’s NCAA Tournament outlook, both regarding whether the Hoosiers will get there and how far they can go. But in a year that the Big Ten has one elite team and a bunch of question marks, it’s up to Indiana, however flawed, to make the most of its opportunities.

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