Jack’s Take: Why Liam McNeeley’s Decommitment From Indiana is Unsurprising

Mike Woodson had the Indiana men’s basketball program on an upward trajectory when Liam McNeeley committed in October. But after missing on other 2024 recruits and enduring a disappointing season, the program has lost momentum and McNeeley has better options.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Mike Woodson lost his lone incoming recruit in the class of 2024 Thursday night. And it was a big one.

Wednesday afternoon, Indiana put out a release that Liam McNeeley was named a third-team high school All-American by the Naismith Trophy. News broke a few hours later that Woodson would return to coach Indiana for a fourth season in 2024-25. He coached the Hoosiers to their third straight win at Minnesota that night, a positive note near the end of a disappointing season.

Then, almost 24 hours later, reports surfaced that McNeeley, a five-star recruit, has requested a release from his National Letter of Intent and will reopen his recruitment. The timing of it all appears to have come as a surprise to Indiana.

But should it have been a surprise? Consider how the program’s outlook has changed since McNeeley committed to Indiana on Oct. 15, 2023.

Woodson’s Hoosiers were coming off their best season in about seven years, going 23-12. Despite the Round of 32 exit, Woodson had built an upward trajectory across his first two seasons. Indiana tied for second in the Big Ten, defeated conference champion and No. 1 seed Purdue twice, and earned a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, its highest since 2012-13.

Woodson helped Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jalen Hood-Schifino achieve their NBA dreams. He displayed multi-year development chops with the All-American Jackson-Davis and established Indiana as a one-and-done destination with Hood-Schifino, the Big Ten Freshman of the Year.

That spring, he landed Kel’el Ware, one of the most highly sought after players in the transfer portal, and Mackenzie Mgbako, the nation’s eighth-ranked high school recruit who decommitted from Duke and chose Indiana over Kansas.

On the recruiting trail, there was growing optimism that Woodson could put together a loaded 2024 class. Remember McNeeley’s “phone call”? Seconds after he announced his commitment, McNeeley called out five-star point guard Boogie Fland and his Montverde Academy teammate, Derik Queen, a five-star center, live on ESPN to join him in Bloomington.

Indiana was a finalist for both, but Fland ultimately picked rival Kentucky and Queen chose Big Ten foe Maryland. McNeeley was left as the only player in the country to choose Indiana, and Woodson had few, if any, options left in that class.

Meanwhile, on the court, it’s been a depressing season for Indiana. The Hoosiers were always expected to take a step back in year three after losing Jackson-Davis, Hood-Schifino and four other significant contributors.

Indiana was picked sixth in the preseason Big Ten poll and ranked No. 49 in the preseason KenPom rankings. But with one regular season game and the Big Ten Tournament left, the Hoosiers are tied for eighth in the conference, ranked No. 91 in KenPom and No. 95 in the NET. The NCAA Tournament has been a long shot for most of a season that includes eight double-digit losses, a 17-13 record overall and a 9-10 run in conference play.

Woodson and the Indiana staff have done well with a few notable individuals. Ware’s NBA Draft stock, which had tanked at Oregon, has risen and he is a likely first-round pick after one season at Indiana. Malik Reneau has taken one of the biggest jumps in scoring production of any Big Ten player from last season. Mackenzie Mgbako has made dramatic improvements from November to March, joining the conversation for Big Ten Freshman of the Year. And Trey Galloway, though not shooting the ball as well as last season, has developed into a legitimate playmaker, dishing out 11-plus assists in three of his last six games.

All of those positives can be true and Indiana still may not be the attractive destination in March that it was in October. While there have been individual improvements, it took until late February for the team to really find its stride. The three-game win streak has been nice, but Indiana will still miss the NCAA Tournament unless it wins the Big Ten Tournament. And it needs a win Sunday over Michigan State to simply finish .500 in the Big Ten, a conference that is down overall from previous seasons.

National media pundits from ESPN and CBS have recently listed Woodson in coaching hot seat articles, which could make any recruit think twice about their future school. And from McNeeley’s perspective, a player with options at the nation’s best programs, it’s fair to wonder if Indiana is the best choice for his future.

McNeeley is a premier 3-point shooter at the high school level, and Indiana ranks 351st nationally in 3-point attempt rate. Mgbako leads the team with 134 attempts, which ranks 19th in the Big Ten. McNeeley would have gotten his shots, but Indiana’s offensive system may not look as appealing now as it did when he committed.

A program like Kansas, who was the other finalist for McNeeley, has been ranked in the top five for each of the last 15 seasons, with one national championship and three Final Four appearances under Bill Self, one of the game’s best coaches. Indiana has been to the Final Four just once since 2002 and ranked in the top five in just two seasons since.

Woodson does not have a single class of 2024 high school recruit set to join Indiana next season. And barring other decommitments, that might not change. Only two players in the entire top-100 of the 247Sports Composite rankings remain uncommitted.

Woodson declined to discuss recruiting when asked about the level of concern he has with zero commitments in the class of 2024.

“I'm not even going to talk about recruiting with you guys,” Woodson said Friday. “I'm just not. It's something we got to do, and this is going to be a big summer for us. We got to go out and get players. Because we can lose players, you just never know. That's what the portal presents. That's just kind of how I feel about it at this point.”

Woodson has had success with late-cycle recruiting, landing players like Tamar Bates, Malik Reneau and Mackenzie Mgbako after they decommitted from their previous schools. But this is far from a sustainable recruiting method year after year.

Senior Day is Sunday against Michigan State, and Indiana is guaranteed to lose Xavier Johnson and Anthony Walker, who will be out of eligibility at the end of the year. Kel’el Ware is a projected first-round draft pick, so he could be gone, too.

Woodson said Friday he hasn’t met with Trey Galloway and Anthony Leal about Senior Day plans. Whether they’re truly undecided or Woodson is being secretive, the uncertainty either way adds to next season’s questions. And with the ability for players to transfer without sitting out a season, it’s reasonable to expect one or more players to enter the transfer portal at any program.

Woodson will have at least three open scholarships heading into the 2024-25 season, and that’s only after the departure of Johnson and Walker. It wouldn’t be surprising to see that number grow due to draft decisions, portal entrants or graduation.

Woodson has had some success recruiting players out of the transfer portal, like Kel’el Ware, Xavier Johnson, Miller Kopp, Parker Stewart, and convincing most of the 2021-22 roster to stay at Indiana for his first season. But before this season, he was unable to add a desired guard or wing to help Indiana’s 3-point shooting efforts, and an open scholarship remained.

In a positive sense, Indiana has a strong NIL base and plenty of playing time to offer, two things players look for in a new school. Indiana sent two players to the NBA last season and has had developmental success with a few players this year. Add its facilities and dedicated fan base, and it shouldn’t be hard to attract talent. But Indiana has found itself in a position where it has zero incoming high school recruits.

Talent will be available this offseason, as All-American candidates this season like Caleb Love, Hunter Dickinson, Dalton Knecht, Kevin McCullar Jr., Johni Broome and Mark Sears all transferred at one point. But in order for next season to be any better than this disappointing one, Woodson will have to add several immediate-impact transfers – ones that fill Indiana’s needs and fit together.

McNeeley’s decommitment makes Woodson’s path forward even more difficult.

Related stories on Indiana basketball

• MCNEELEY DECOMMITS: Liam McNeeley, Indiana's lone commitment in the class of 2024 and a five-star prospect, has reopened his recruitment, according to multiple reports. CLICK HERE
• MEET THE OPPONENT, MICHIGAN STATE: Coach Tom Izzo and Michigan State travel to Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Sunday for the their season's first matchup against Indiana. The Spartans are 10-9 in conference play and Indiana is 9-10, so Sunday's winner gets an advantage in Big Ten Tournament seeding. CLICK HERE
• GAME STORY: Coach Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers won their third straight game Wednesday night at Minnesota, 70-58. Kel'el Ware led Indiana with 26 points, 11 rebounds, three blocks and three assists, while Minnesota shot 38.6% from the field and committed 18 turnovers. CLICK HERE
• WHAT WOODSON SAID: Here's the full transcript of Mike Woodson's press conference following Indiana's 70-58 win at Minnesota Wednesday night. CLICK HERE