Meet the Opponent: Purdue Favored To Win Big Ten, National Title Entering Indiana Rivalry Game

Zach Edey is putting together another National Player of the Year campaign, while guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer have made the sophomore year jump Purdue needed to be in the mix for a national title. Here's a full breakdown of Indiana's Tuesday opponent, the Purdue Boilermakers.

Jack Ankony | Jan 14, 2024

Meet the Opponent: Purdue Favored To Win Big Ten, National Title Entering Indiana Rivalry Game /

In this story:

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The Indiana-Purdue rivalry returns Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET with plans for a white-out crowd at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.

The Hoosiers bounced back with a 74-62 win over Minnesota on Friday night, thanks to strong performances from the front court trio of Mackenzie Mgbako, Malik Reneau and Kel'el Ware.

On the other side, Purdue dominated Penn State 95-78 on Saturday afternoon at Mackey Arena behind 30 points and 20 rebounds from reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey. The in-state rivals enter this year's first matchup with identical 4-2 records in Big Ten play.

Here's a full breakdown of Purdue.

Key returners

(2023-24 stats)

C Zach Edey: 22.3 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 2.3 bpg, 64.5 FG%
G Braden Smith: 12.4 ppg, 6.9 apg, 48.2 3-pt FG%
G Fletcher Loyer: 11.0 ppg, 40.8 3-pt FG%
F Trey Kaufman-Renn: 7.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 53.0 FG%
F Mason Gillis: 6.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 51.1 3-pt FG%
F Camden Heide (redshirt freshman): 3.9 ppg, 55.0 3-pt FG%
F Caleb Furst: 3.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 46.2 FG%
G Ethan Morton: 0.8 ppg, 1.7 apg, 20.0 FG%

Key departures

(2022-23 stats)

G Brandon Newman: 6.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 31.0 3-pt FG%
G David Jenkins Jr.: 3.9 ppg, 35.0 3-pt FG%

Key newcomers

(2023-24 stats)

G Lance Jones (Southern Illinois transfer): 11.3 ppg, 2.5 apg, 32.6 3-pt FG%
G Myles Colvin (No. 97 freshman): 4.3 ppg, 38.5 3-pt FG%

Schedule (15-2, 4-2 in Big Ten)

W, 98-45 vs. Samford
W, 87-57 vs. Morehead State
W, 83-71 vs. Xavier
W, 73-63 vs. Gonzaga (Maui Invitational)
W, 71-67 vs. Tennessee (Maui Invitational)
W, 78-75 vs. Marquette (Maui Invitational)
W, 99-67 vs. Texas Southern
L, 92-88 at Northwestern
W, 87-68 vs. Iowa
W, 92-86 vs. Alabama (in Toronto)
W, 92-84 vs. Arizona (in Indianapolis)
W, 100-57 vs. Jacksonville
W, 80-53 vs. Eastern Kentucky
W, 67-53 at Maryland
W, 83-78 vs. Illinois
L, 88-72 at Nebraska
W, 95-78 vs. Penn State

Mike Woodson's history against Purdue

W, 79-71 at Purdue on Feb. 25, 2023
W, 79-74 vs. Purdue on Feb. 4, 2023
L, 69-67 at Purdue on March 5, 2022
W, 68-65 vs. Purdue on Jan. 20, 2022

Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) drives the ball against Indiana Hoosiers guard Trey Galloway (32) during the second half at Mackey Arena. Indiana won 79-71. — Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) drives the ball against Indiana Hoosiers guard Trey Galloway (32) during the second half at Mackey Arena. Indiana won 79-71 / Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Strengths

Zach Edey is the most dominant player in college basketball, and it's no surprise he's the heavy favorite to become the first back-to-back Wooden Award winner since Virginia's Ralph Sampson in 1982 and 1983. Edey has gotten even better since last season, increasing both his field goal and free throw percentages. His assist and block numbers are up, too, and his mobility has noticeably improved on the defensive end. Edey represents the toughest matchup of the season for Indiana bigs Kel'el Ware and Malik Reneau.

But the Hoosiers can't focus all their attention on Edey, as guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer have taken steps forward from their freshman to sophomore seasons. Smith is second in the Big Ten in assists, and his 3-point shooting has increased 10.6% to 48.2% on 3.3 attempts per game. Purdue's pick-and-roll game has become even more difficult to guard because of the offensive improvements Smith has made. Loyer is averaging the same 11.0 points per game as last season, but his 3-point and free throw percentages are up to 40.8% and 90%, respectively. As a team, Purdue is ninth in the nation, shooting 39.8% from three. Smith and Loyer have handled defensive pressure much better this season, which was Purdue's downfall a year ago.

Former Southern Illinois guard Lance Jones has been one of the most impactful transfers in the Big Ten this year, giving Purdue's offense a jolt with 11.3 points per game and providing strong perimeter defense. Sophomore forward Trey Kaufman-Renn is in the starting lineup now, and he led the Boilermakers with 23 points in their win over No. 9 Illinois. Freshman Myles Colvin and redshirt freshman Cam Heide have boosted Purdue's athleticism and shooting on the wings. With scoring options inside and out, plus one of the nation's best coaches in Matt Painter, Purdue's offense ranks second in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric and 14th with 85 points per game.

Weaknesses

The Boilermakers have been the nation's No. 1 team for roughly half the season, so it'd be nitpicking to hold much against them. But let's take a look at their two losses, at Northwestern and at Nebraska, which prove just how difficult it is to win on the road in the Big Ten. A four-point overtime loss at Northwestern could have gone either way, but this was Purdue's worst defensive game of the season. The Wildcats have scored 76 points or fewer in 12-of-16 games this year, but they scored a season-high 92 points against Purdue, the most the Boilermakers have allowed all year. Purdue really struggled to defend Northwestern guards Boo Buie (31 points), Ty Berry (21) and Ryan Langborg (20).

In Purdue's 16-point loss at Nebraska, the Cornhuskers shot 14-for-23 from 3-point range. While it's unlikely a team shoots that well from three against them the rest of the year, the Boilermakers had an especially tough time getting guards Kesei Tominaga and C.J. Wilcher out of rhythm, as they combined for 35 points and eight 3-pointers.

In those losses, Purdue had 17 turnovers at Northwestern and 13 at Nebraska. Surprisingly, Purdue has the third-worst turnover margin per game in the Big Ten, which could be a recipe for Indiana to pull off the upset. Looking back even further to last season, Purdue had 16 turnovers in its loss to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson and its loss at Indiana.

Season outlook

Purdue is the current national title favorite, according to the FanDuel Sportsbook. Though Wisconsin sits atop the Big Ten at 5-0, the Badgers still haven't faced Purdue, which is looking to repeat as Big Ten champs. The Boilermakers rank second in the nation in strength of schedule, boasting impressive wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, Arizona and Illinois. Purdue has all the necessary pieces to reach its first Final Four since 1980, win its first national championship and erase the bad memories from losing to No. 14, No. 15 and No. 16 seeds in the last three NCAA Tournaments.