The Big Ten Tournament: Where Does Indiana Stand?

With the Big Ten men's basketball season at the halfway point, it’s time to consider where Indiana stands in qualifying for the Big Ten Tournament.

Indiana Hoosiers head coach Mike Woodson during the second half against the Maryland Terrapins at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The largesse of the 18-team Big Ten Conference has consequences for men’s basketball.

Beyond the regular-season schedule, in which each Big Ten team only plays three others twice, there’s the matter of the Big Ten Tournament.

In years past, there was little concern about the Big Ten Tournament, other than whether a team could get a bye or a double-bye in the field. Now, however, qualification for the Big Ten Tournament is the new reality.

When the league expanded to 18 teams, the Big Ten decided only 15 teams would participate in its postseason tournament. Three Big Ten teams will stay home when the tournament takes place from March 12-16 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

For Indiana, this was not supposed to be an issue. Picked second in the preseason media poll, armed with transfer portal help, the Hoosiers were expected to contend for the Big Ten crown.

Halfway through the Big Ten season, Indiana is well short of that goal. The Hoosiers are 5-5 in the Big Ten in a three-way tie for eighth place going into its 8 p.m. ET game on Friday at Purdue.

Being in a tie for eighth would seem to suggest the Hoosiers would be safe to make the 15-team field, but there’s the not-so-small matter of Indiana’s remaining schedule.

Eight of Indiana’s remaining 10 Big Ten contests are against teams at or above them in the standings. Indiana still has road games at Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Washington and Oregon.

So where does Indiana stand as far as Big Ten Tournament qualification is concerned? There’s a website – bball.notnothing.net – that can help track the possibilities.

You can plug in any result for all remaining games to see how the Big Ten Tournament possibilities play out. It tracks tiebreakers, etc.

So given Indiana’s situation, Hoosiers On SI mapped out some scenarios.

One important note. For the other games in the Big Ten, we used barttorvik.com’s score projections to keep things consistent. With nearly half the league schedule left, there’s obviously a lot of different detours this could all eventually go.

Where Indiana Stands By Bart Torvik’s Projections

If every one of Torvik’s score projections came to pass, the Hoosiers would finish 7-13 in the Big Ten.

In this instance, Indiana would be in a four-way tie with Northwestern, Rutgers and Nebraska for 11th place, but the Hoosiers would be last in that four-way tiebreaker. As the No. 14 seed, Indiana would play No. 11 Northwestern on the expanded, four-game first day of the Big Ten Tournament.

What If Indiana Wins All Of Its Remaining Games?

Indiana would be 15-5 in the Big Ten and finish in a three-way tie with Maryland and Michigan State for the Big Ten regular season championship. The Hoosiers would be the No. 2 seed as Maryland would have the tiebreaker edge over Indiana and Michigan State.

What If Indiana Loses All Of Its Remaining Games?

Indiana would be 5-15 in the Big Ten and finish in a two-way tie with Iowa for 16th place. The Hoosiers would miss the Big Ten Tournament.

What If Indiana Wins Its Remaining Home Games?

Indiana has home games left against Michigan, UCLA, Purdue, Penn State and Ohio State. If the Hoosiers ran the table at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, they would finish 10-10 in the Big Ten and would have sole possession of ninth place. The No. 9 seed is the last spot in the field in which a team gets a bye and a free pass to the second day.

In this scenario, Indiana would play No. 8 Oregon on the second day of the Big Ten Tournament.

What Is The Minimum Standard For Indiana To Make The Tournament?

Based on expected results, in every scenario we tried in which Indiana won just one more game, the Hoosiers made the Big Ten Tournament – but only just.

With one win, Indiana is 6-14 in the Big Ten and finishes in a two-way tie for 15th with Minnesota. The Hoosiers win the tiebreaker based on their victory over the Golden Gophers in December and get the final spot in the Big Ten Tournament field as the No. 15 seed.

This is a very fluid situation going forward, however, depending on which teams win or lose against expected results and how the tiebreakers are affected.

For example, if Nebraska, projected to win seven Big Ten games, only won six games, and if Iowa, projected to win five Big Ten games, won six, then Indiana would be in a four-way tiebreaker with that pair plus Minnesota. Indiana would miss the Big Ten Tournament in this case as it would be last in a four-way tiebreaker with that particular combination of schools.

As a general rule of thumb, Indiana does not want to be in any tiebreaker scenario that features Iowa, Nebraska or Northwestern. Indiana gets favorable tiebreakers against Minnesota, Rutgers, and for the time being, Penn State. Indiana still has one more game against the Nittany Lions at home in late February.

So as far as tiebreakers in the lower half of the league is concerned? Most of Indiana’s results are already baked in.

What Is The Minimum Standard To Get A Bye?

It’s far too early to realistically map that out, but there are numbers available that paint a picture.

Matt Hackman tracks conference tournament scenarios for several leagues on the X social media site. This week, Hackman simulated 100,000 outcomes for the Big Ten Tournament, weighted towards expected results.

Indiana earned a bye in 18,708 of those 100,000 simulations. The Hoosiers earned the coveted double-bye in just 252 scenarios.

In Hackman’s simulation, Indiana had the possibility of being ranked anywhere from No. 2 in the Big Ten Tournament to out of the field.

Indiana was left out of the Big Ten Tournament in 8,768 of his 100,000 scenarios.

So, per Hackman, Indiana has an 18.7% chance to earn a bye, a 72.6% chance of having to start the Big Ten Tournament on day one, and an 8.7% chance of missing the Big Ten Tournament entirely.

These numbers will all change as the fortunes of the Big Ten teams play out in February and early March.

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