My Two Cents: Has This Past Week Lowered Postseason Expectations For Indiana?

Indiana won 21 games in the regular season and had several magical moments, including two wins against arch-rival Purdue and big road wins at Xavier, Illinois and Michigan. Expectations were high for this team in the beginning, but there are also warts, and we've seen them in the past week or so. So how do we feel now heading into the postseason?

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Indiana was the preseason favorite to win the Big Ten, and that didn't happen. Purdue, of all people, got them by three games, despite the Hoosiers beating them twice. 

Indiana lost 10 games too, which also wasn't in the plan. They've finished the regular season with a 21-10 record and had a rough last week at home.

That, too, was unexpected.

Indiana was really good at home all year, but  last Tuesday they got blown out by 22 against Iowa. Then on Sunday, they were down 12 in the second half to Michigan and it seemed like this team was falling apart at the worst possible time. 

But the Hoosiers got hot down the stretch and rallied to force overtime and beat Michigan, 75-73. The turnaround was huge for the Hoosiers' psyche, and was much needed. There have been too many late-season collapses in the last decade or so, and we certainly didn't need another one. 

Not this year. Not with this team, this coach, and these players.

Right?

So where do we stand right now with how we feel about the Hoosiers? Those lofty expectations that some of you've had? Winning the Big Ten Tournament and making a deep NCAA Tournament run? They still there? 

And you negative nellies? Still one and done in both tournaments, Big Ten and NCAA, while you kick your dog in your mother's basement?

There are many people in the middle, of course. And many more who are unsure. Very unsure, and that's a big crowd.

There's a good reason for that, of course. When Indiana is good, they are really, really good. They beat Purdue twice, once in Bloomington when the Boilermakers were No. 1 in the country. (They were No. 5 in the Feb. 25 win in West Lafayette). They beat Xavier on the road early, beat a good Illinois team by 15 on the road, beat Michigan twice and beat preseason No. 1 North Carolina in November.

That's been nice.

But we've seen the warts, too. Two losses to Iowa and chalkboard-scratching coach Fran McCaffery and his band of annoyances, two more to Northwestern and their stomach-churniing come-uppance. A double-digit loss at Maryland, too, with all the loud ''overrated'' chants.

You want to say Indiana can win the Big Ten Tournament? Sure, go ahead, but here's the scary thought: 

Have we already seen Indiana's last win?

That's a gawd-awful worst-case scenario, of course. It's somewhat reasonable that the path the title might have to run through Maryland, Northwestern and Iowa, and the Hoosiers are a combined 0-5 against them. And even if it's a Purdue-Indiana final, can the Hoosiers really beat them three times in one season? They've never done it before.

The common theme to a lot of those Indiana losses? Lightning-quick guards that the guys on Indiana's perimeter can't keep up with on a regular basis. The reality is those same quick guards are still here, getting in the way.

There's the other side of the coin, of course, the one where Trayce Jackson-Davis goes nuts three days in a row, wins his first Big Ten trophy and a tourney MVP award. "First we need one of those ...'' he said on Senior Night while pointing to IU's 22 Big Ten titles on the banners in the south end. I absolutely can see that happen, too. He's been that good for long stretches of this season. He's more than capable of carrying this team to a title.

But that's the conundrum with these Hoosiers. We know Trayce can carry this team, but to play well three days in a row, others need to step up in a big way.

And it can't just be one guy.

Point guard Jalen Hood-Schifino, who was named the Big Ten's Freshman of the Year on Tuesday, has been a great sidekick for Jackson-Davis throughout much of the Big Ten season. Tuesday's honor was well deserved, and Trayce has called him ''the best player I've ever played with.'' He's not wrong. 

It's not even close, frankly. 

But Hood-Schifino also has had some freshman moments, where he's really struggled. Maryland, the likely Friday opponent for Indiana, is a perfect example of those occasional freshman struggles. In Indiana's loss at College Park on Jan. 31, Hood-Schifino missed his first 11 shots, finished 1-for-14 from the field, had four turnovers and got torched defensively often by Maryland guard Jahmir Young.

In a one-and-done scenario, Indiana can't have another night like that.

The good thing, certainly, is that Hood-Schifino, the hardest-working freshman I've seen in a long time at Indiana, has learned from every experience this season, the good and the bad. He has a very tight relationship with veteran point guard Xavier Johnson, and they were very dangerous on the floor together to start the season.

We've thrown that stat out a lot, though, the one where they've only played 6 minutes and 9 seconds together since beating former No. 1 North Carolina on Nov. 30. They didn't play A SINGLE MINUTE together in any of the 20 Big Ten games, with Hood-Schifino missing three games with a back injury, and Johnson missing 20-plus with a broken foot that required season-ending surgery, as it turned out. 

He's missed him. But he's also learned, too. The next game after Maryland? He was great in the home win over No. 1 Purdue, scoring 16 points and making a ton of big plays down the stretch. Then he scored 35 against them in the huge upset win at Mackey Arena in late February. That was so much fun, Indiana coach Mike Woodson's first win at Mackey in 47 years of trying.

That's the Jalen we need for three games in a row this week. Getting 35 again is unreasonable, but he certainly needs to be at his best every night in the Big Ten Tournament and beyond.

As the point guard, he also has to be on top of his game in getting others involved. Trey Galloway has made 47.5 percent of his three-pointers this season, and Miller Kopp hit 45.2 percent. Hood-Schifino needs to find them — and Trayce too, of course — and the Hoosiers need AT LEAST five three-pointers total from that pair every game going forward.

I am fully confident that happens. I feel good about what Galloway and Kopp are going to give this team down the stretch.

If Race Thompson struggles much at the power forward spot, I hope Woodson isn't opposed with riding freshman Malik Reneau for long stretches if he can stay out of foul trouble. With the opponents Indiana likely will see the first two days, Reneau can have an impact. Indiana needs that, and it needs that badly.

Bench help is going to be important, and that's something of a scary thought considering how little they've contributed lately. Junior forward Jordan Geronimo (calf) has been severely limited, and sophomore guard Tamar Bates has been in a funk for the past six weeks.

It was encouraging — very encouraging, really — to see Bates his two huge three-pointers during Indiana's big comeback against Michigan on Sunday. To me, he's something of an X-factor going forward. If he plays well, the Hoosiers are a dramatically better team. 

If he doesn't, it could be a problem. And the hard part is that it's difficult to expect him to play well at the United Center this weekend, because he's been awful away from Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.

This is a stunning stat to me: Bates has not made a three-pointer away from home since Jan. 11 — a whopping 56 days ago. It'll be 58 come Friday when the Hoosiers play their quarterfinal game at around 9 p.m. ET. He made a three in the first half in that ugly loss at Penn State, but has taken — and missed — just seven threes in seven-plus games since then, covering 114 minutes of playing time.

That's ZERO production.  

Here's an even more stunning stat: From the field, he's just 1-for-19 in those seven road games after Penn State, which is head-rattling. That 5.26 percent from the field. Almost seems impossible, doesn't it?

It's going to be very interesting to see how many Hoosiers play well during the Big Ten Tournament. I am very confident they can win three games in a row and win their first-ever conference tournament title. I think they are the second-best team in the Big Ten, and the only one team that's better — regular-season champ Purdue — has already lost twice to the Hoosiers.

This can't be all about Trayce. Can't be all about Jalen, either. If the Hoosiers are going to win the Big Ten, they need everyone at their best.

Can they do that? We'll find out starting Friday night, and hopefully through Sunday afternoon. 

Optimism is a wonderful thing. Let's hope reality doesn't trump it.