My Two Cents: Will Indiana's Soft Schedule Hurt Them Later?

Even though Indiana went 9-1 in the nonconference portion of their schedule, we still have absolutely no idea how good they really are. Now that the Big Ten season has arrived, how much noise can the Hoosiers actually make? Quite a bit, I'm thinking, but we're going to need to see it to believe it.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Now that Wednesday night's game with UNC Asheville isn't going to be played because of COVID-19 issues inside the Bulldogs' program, the nonconference portion of Indiana's schedule is in the books.

It's not much of a book. (And I know books.)

The Hoosiers are 10-2 overall right now, and their nonconference record is complete at 9-1. Eight of the nine wins came at home at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, with the ninth win over Notre Dame in the Crossroads Classic at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis and the loss coming in double-overtime at Syracuse in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.

Based on the Kenpom.com rankings as of Wednesday morning, the No, 28-ranked Hoosiers don't really have any signature wins. Notre Dame, at No. 62, is the best win so far.

And that St. John's win at home? That doesn't look as good anymore, either. St John's was ranked No. 47 at the time, but the Red Storm check in at No. 84 now. 

Here's a way to break down the nonconference wins, and you know the NCAA Tournament selection committee will do the same thing, with data points coming for a variety or sources. These are Indiana's results vs. nonconference teams ranked in these groups right now:

• Games vs. teams ranked 1-50: None
• Games vs. teams ranked 51-100: 2-1
• Games vs. teams ranked 101-150: 1-0
• Games vs. teams ranked 151-200: 2-0
• Games vs. teams ranked 201-250: None
• Games vs. teams ranked 251-300: 3-0
• Games vs. teams ranked 301-358: 1-0

There are some differences between Kenpom rankings on the day of the game and where teams are now, but none of it really makes a difference in the big picture. Eastern Michigan and Jackson State are better, but they're still in the mid-200s and those wins have no true value. Louisiana and Marshall are worse, and that hurts Indiana just a little. Rooting for them to play well in their conference seasons would help.

Here's what Indiana did in the nonconference schedule:

Nonconference games thus far

• Eastern Michigan (5-6): Indiana won 68-62. Kenpom then (No. 297), Kenpom now (No. 265).
• Northern Illinois (3-7): Indiana won 85-49.  Kenpom then (No. 313), Kenpom now (No. 321).
• St. John's (8-3): Indiana won Kenpom then (No. 47), Kenpom now (No. 84). Only other losses have come against No. 5 Kansas and Pittsburgh.
• Louisiana (5-5): Indiana won 76-44. Kenpom then (No. 161), Kenpom now (No. 184). Interestingly, Tom Crean's Georgia team is the next spot down at 186.
• Jackson State (2-9): Indiana won 70-35.  Kenpom then (No. 285), Kenpom now (No. 247).
• Marshall (7-6): Indiana won 90-79. Kenpom then (No. 115), Kenpom now (No. 147).
• Syracuse (6-5): Indiana lost 112-110 in double overtime in Syracuse, N.Y. Kenpom then (No. 60), Kenpom now (No. 61). 
• Merrimack (5-8): Indiana won 81-49. Kenpom then (No. 257), Kenpom now (No. 274).
• Notre Dame (7-5): Indiana won 64-56 in Indianapolis Kenpom then (No. 53), Kenpom now (No. 62). The Irish have won three straight since then, scoring 83 and 85 points against Western Michigan and Texas A&M-Corpus Christie. The Irish won on the road at Pittsburgh on Tuesday night, winning their ACC game 68-67.
• Northern Kentucky (4-7): Indiana won 79-61. Kenpom then (No. 197), Kenpom now (No. 196).

Indiana's overall strength of schedule will fix itself during the Big Ten season because the league is so strong. Five teams — Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State — are all in the top-18, and Iowa, Indiana, Wisconsin and Northwestern are all in the top-40

Here's what the Hoosiers have done in the Big Ten so far, with Penn State next up on Sunday in State College, Pa. The Nittany Lions are No. 88.

Conference games thus far

• Nebraska (6-7): Indiana won Kenpom then (No. 97), Kenpom now (No. 137). The Cornhuskers got clobbered in their other Big Ten game, losing 102-67 at home to Michigan.
• Wisconsin (9-2): Indiana lost 64-59 in Madison, Wis. Kenpom then (No. 26), Kenpom now (No. 33). The Badgers lost their other Big Ten game, getting beat at Ohio State. 

What all this data tells us is that Indiana is probably going to need a winning record in the Big Ten to reach the tournament. People noticed that the league didn't fare well against the Big East in the Gavitt Games, going just 2-6. That might matter in some final selections.

The league did win the Big Ten/ACC Challenge 8-6, and there were some nice league wins there, most notably Ohio State over Duke. But it wasn't overwhelming overall.

So for Indiana, it's going to be all about creating its own resume in league play, and that means winning the games that they'll be favored in. They can't allow slip-ups, and that starts Sunday at Penn State. That's as ''must win'' as any game can be on Jan. 2, because Penn State, which lost its first two league games by double-digits, will finish near the bottom of the league. 

Even on the road, Indiana has to get a win there.

Indiana coach Mike Woodson has talked often about winning all of its home games, and it would sure be nice to think that Indiana can go 10-0 in the league at home, but how realistic is that? 

We know Indiana is better than they were a year ago, and this is probably Indiana's best team since Tom Crean won the Big Ten in 2016. But that still needs to be proven, doesn't it? This easy nonconference schedule hasn't really told us much yet.

Sure, wins over Notre Dame and St. John's are nice enough, but look it it this way. Their average Kenpom ranking in 73. In the Big Ten, only Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska are ranked lower than that, which means the Hoosiers will play 15 of 20 league games against teams ranked higher than that.

Indiana will still need to prove a lot in the league. We do know this: Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson are both better players inside this year. And they are surrounded by shooters for the first time, with transfers Xavier Johnson, Miller Kopp and Parker Stewart all adding a lot to this roster. 

And there is better depth. I'm looking forward to seeing what Tamar Bates grows into during Big Ten play. I really want to see if Michael Durr can help bang with all of the league's big men or not.

And I also want to see continued growth from Rob Phinisee, Anthony Leal, Jordan Geronimo and Trey Galloway in league play. They've all been through it, and it's going to be interesting to see how Woodson uses his bench.

So now, it's on. I love the nightly drama of the Big Ten basketball season, even beyond just Indiana's games. It's a good league this year, as always, and there are a lot of terrific individual stars scattered across the league. There are 126 games to be played, and they'll be fun to watch.

I wish I knew more about how good Indiana is, but we'll find out soon enough. I think the schedule does set up well for them. There are road games at Penn State, Iowa and Nebraska — all winnable — and home games with Ohio State and Minnesota. Also winnable. 

How many of those five can they win? We'll find out soon enough.

Related stories on Indiana basketball

• INDIANA GAME CANCELLED: Because of COVID-19 issues inside the UNC Asheville program, Indiana's game with them Wednesday night has been cancelled. CLICK HERE
• WOODSON EYES BIG TEN TITLE: Indiana coach Mike Woodson said on his radio show Monday night that the Hoosiers ''have as good a chance as anybody'' to win the Big Ten title. CLICK HERE
• BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS (Vol. 1): Tom Brew's first Big Ten power rankings are out, with Purdue being the clear No. 1 in the league so far. Where is Indiana, who's 10-2 but doesn't really have signature wins. Here is the complete list, from 1-14 in the Big Ten, with records, and schedule for the first week in the Big Ten as it resumes. CLICK HERE
• 1,000-POINT SCORERS: In mid-November, Indiana junior forward Trayce Jackson-Davis became the 54th Hoosier to join the 1,000-point club. He continues to rise up the list, and he just passed Cody Zeller for No. 40 on the list. Here's the updated list of all 54 Indiana stars. CLICK HERE
• INDIANA SCHEDULE: Here is the complete Indiana basketball schedule for the 2021-22 season, with dates, gametimes, TV information when applicable and links to the game stories and Tom Brew columns for the games played thus far. CLICK HERE