Big Ten Offseason Evaluation: Michigan Wolverines

In our Big Ten Offseason Evaluation series, we’ll break down the roster changes and outlook for all 18 Big Ten basketball teams heading into the 2024-25 season. Next up is Michigan, which made a coaching change this offseason.

U-M's new men's basketball head coach Dusty May speaks during introductory press conference at Junge Family Champions Center in Ann Arbor on Tuesday, March 26, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Michigan basketball enters a new era after firing Juwan Howard, who went 87-72 across five seasons but just 8-24 last year, and hiring Dusty May from Florida Atlantic. 

May became a hot name in the coaching world when he took the Owls to the 2023 Final Four as a No. 9 seed. Florida Atlantic entered the 2023-24 season with high expectations as the No. 10 team in the nation, but it lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament as a No. 8 seed. 

Here’s a full breakdown of Michigan’s busy offseason following its coaching change, plus its outlook for next year.

Who they lost

• Transfers: Dug McDaniel (16.3 ppg, Kansas State), Terrance Williams II (12.4 ppg, USC), Tarris Reed Jr. (9.0 ppg, UConn), Youssef Khayat (1.4 ppg, Bowling Green), George Washington III (1.2 ppg, Richmond)
• NBA/graduation: Olivier Nkamhoua (14.8 ppg), Jaelin Llewellyn (5.2 ppg), Tray Jackson (5.0 ppg)

Who they gained

• Transfers: Vladislav Goldin (15.7 ppg, Florida Atlantic), Danny Wolf (14.1 ppg, Yale), Roddy Gayle Jr. (13.5 ppg, Ohio State), Rubin Jones (12.1 ppg, North Texas), Tre Donaldson (6.7 ppg, Auburn), Sam Walters (5.4 ppg, Alabama)
• Freshmen: Justin Pippen (No. 103 per 247Sports Composite), Durral Brooks (No. 199), Lorenzo Cason (unranked)

Returning

• Nimari Burnett (9.6 ppg), Will Tschetter (6.8 ppg), Jace Howard (2.6 ppg)

Reasons for optimism

Optimism around Michigan basketball is more for the long term than the short term. May, 47, is widely considered one of the top young coaches in college basketball, and the turnaround he sparked at Florida Atlantic, going 60-13 over the last two seasons, was very impressive. He should have the Wolverines competitive in the Big Ten every year. But no matter how much talent he’s brought in, winning in year one can be difficult for any coach. 

Success for Michigan in year one will require May to work wonders with players he’s never coached and a roster that must quickly build chemistry. The transfer portal headliners include a pair of centers – Danny Wolf from Yale and Vladislav Goldin, the only Florida Atlantic transfer – who create a versatile inside-out duo, with Wolf able to knock down threes and Goldin an efficient 67.3% interior scorer. Both averaged more than a block per game, giving Michigan solid interior defense.

In the backcourt, Michigan’s most notable addition was Ohio State transfer Roddy Gayle Jr., who had a breakout sophomore season last year. He averaged 13.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game, but his 3-point shooting fell from 42.9% to 28.4% on more volume as a sophomore. He’s a good piece to build around.

Biggest concerns

Aside from Gayle, there are some questions about Michigan’s backcourt. The Wolverines’ leading scorer from last season, Dug McDaniel, is transferring to Kansas State, and Michigan’s guard replacements – including Gayle – aren’t as talented as the 16.8-point per game scorer and 36.8% 3-point shooter. 

Michigan missed a big opportunity to land one of the top guards in college basketball given May’s prior connection, and it leaves Michigan’s back court with several questions. Johnell Davis played a key role in Florida Atlantic’s Final Four run, but he’s transferring to Arkansas instead of following May to Michigan. Without Davis, May ended up with guards like Tre Donaldson, primarily a backup at Auburn last season, and North Florida transfer Rubin Jones.

While losing some players from an 8-24 roster could be for the better, there’s a lot for May to clean up at Michigan. It could take more than a year to get things rolling.

The bottom line

Michigan should feel good about its future under May, but I’m not sold on the Wolverines in 2024-25. Despite all the talent he has at power forward and center – Wolf, Goldin, Sam Walters and Will Tschetter – guard depth remains a concern. Michigan certainly won’t be in the Big Ten cellar like it was last season, but I don’t trust them to be better than an NCAA Tournament bubble team.