College Football Experts, Computer Ratings Take Notice Of Indiana's 3-0 Start

Some experts and ranking systems rate Indiana football highly. Others need to see more from the Hoosiers.

UCLA Bruins and Indiana Hoosiers helmets at the line of scrimmage during the game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Associated Press Top 25 is the oldest barometer that takes the weekly temperature of college football. While it's purely an unofficial snapshot of the pecking order these days, it still carries weight, and it still marks progress if a team receives a vote that hasn't in a long time.

Indiana's football team, now 3-0 after the Hoosiers drop-kicked UCLA 42-13 at the Rose Bowl Saturday, earned its first AP poll recognition since Sept. 12, 2021. Indiana had 13 points in this week's AP poll, drawing notice from five different pollsters.

That was known Sunday when the poll was released, but the Hoosiers have received notice in other corners of the college football world as well.

Also on Sunday, ESPN+ ranked the 43 remaining unbeaten teams in FBS football. ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly rated the Hoosiers 11th among the still unscathed programs.

Indiana was ranked behind Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Ole Miss, Miami, Southern California, MIssouri and Penn State.

The Hoosiers were ranked ahead of notables such as Oregon, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Utah, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Illinois and Michigan State,

Part of the rationale for Indiana's status is rooted in ESPN's Football Power Index rating system. Indiana is rated 19th by their method. FPI projects Indiana to have a 9-3 record and gives the Hoosiers a 24% chance of making the College Football Playoff.

In the same article, Connelly also listed Indiana's win over UCLA as one of his five most surprising results of the week.

ESPN's other ranking system, the SP+, isn't as high on the Hoosiers. Intended to be a predictive rating system, Indiana is rated 40th. Still, the Hoosiers were the sixth-highest movers in that ranking system.

It isn't just ESPN that has rated the Hoosiers highly. Sports-reference.com, on its college football page, has the Hoosiers ranked 8th nationally in its Simple Ratings System.

According to sports-reference, the Simple Rating System is "a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average."

Indiana's excellent defensive showing in three games has helped their SRS rating. The Hoosiers have given up only 26 points in three games. Combined with the offensive showing, especially in Indiana's 77-3 win over Western Illinois on Sept. 6, the Indiana defense has a robust advantage in point differential.

Indiana also moved up in several regional Big Ten power rankings done by various websites and newspapers. Only two Big Ten games have been played and the Hoosiers share first place with Michigan State, but obviously, Indiana's win over UCLA was convincing.

Other rating systems want a larger body of evidence before moving the Hoosiers up.

Pro Football Focus, which also extensively covers college football, has Indiana ranked 52nd in its power rankings. However, PFF.com also gives Indiana a 90% chance to make a bowl game, projects 8 wins and gives the Hoosiers an 8% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Jeff Sagarin, an Indiana graduate, has the Hoosiers ranked 48th in his system.

The ELO ranking system, a method that originated in chess, but which has been adopted in nearly every major global sport, has Indiana ranked just 73rd.

ELO is a rating system based on expected outcomes, and given the weakness of Indiana's opponents - yes, even UCLA - the Hoosiers aren't going to fare well by their method yet.

Strength of schedule is what holds Indiana back in the ratings systems that put a lesser value on the Hoosiers. In ELO, Indiana's strength of schedule rank is 133rd. Sagarin, which includes FCS teams in its rankings, rates the Hoosiers strength of schedule at a paltry 181st.

Even among the rating systems that give Indiana high marks, strength of schedule is low. Sports-reference.com rates Indiana at 102nd. ESPN ranks Indiana's schedule as 106th-best.

Charlotte, Indiana's next opponent, won't help Indiana's strength of schedule, but ESPN does rate Indiana as having the 37th-hardest remaining schedule. Nebraska, Michigan and Ohio State are the three most difficult Big Ten opponents the Hoosiers have on their remanining Big Ten slate.

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