Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys For Indiana Against Florida International

Hoosiers will need to protect Kurtis Rourke above all other considerations.

Indiana's Kurtis Rourke (9) prepares to pass during the Indiana football spring game at Memorial Stadaium on Thursday, April 18, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The long wait is over. Indiana football begins its new era with coach Curt Cignetti at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday as Florida International visits Memorial Stadium in the season opener.

If it feels like Christmas morning? It’s because there are a lot of presents under the tree that will finally be opened.

Throughout the offseason, quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been the assumed starter that would solidify a position that was unstable for the last two seasons. There are 13 James Madison transfers. Potential stars like wide receiver Elijah Sarratt, defensive end Mikail Kamara and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds get the chance to prove themselves at the Big Ten level.

It's exciting and fans are more engaged than usual. On Cignetti’s radio show on Thursday night, Indiana athletic director Scott Dolson said both season and general ticket sales are up 10%.

The time has finally come for the Hoosiers to prove that they’re worthy of the excitement.

Here are three keys that will be important to get a victory over FIU. There is also a score prediction at the bottom of the story.

1. Protect Kurtis Rourke

You might as well put this as the top key in any game this season, but we’ll knock it out for the first game just to state the importance of it.

While Cignetti and his staff have surrounded Rourke with plenty of weapons to choose from, it only works if he’s the one running the show. No one on the Indiana roster has had the proven success the Ohio University transfer has had with 7,651 career passing yards.

You might be saying, so what? What team doesn’t want to protect its starting quarterback?

That’s always true, but when Rourke has a serious injury in his past – he tore his ACL towards the end of the 2022 season – it just makes it that  much more important for him to avoid hits.

He returned in 2023 and played 11 games for the Bobcats. Rourke suffered an unrelated injury in the season opener against San Diego State that caused him to miss one game.

Add to that? Indiana’s offensive line has lost guard Nick Kidwell for the season with a knee injury. There will be relatively untested players at the guard spots, though Indiana does have experience elsewhere with tackles Carter Smith and Trey Wedig and center Mike Katic. They need to lead the way to keep Rourke hale and hearty.

2. Shut down FIU’s run game

Given that FIU quarterback Keyone Jenkins is rightfully thought to be the Panthers’ main weapon, this may be considered counterintuitive. But what’s key in any game is to make a team one-dimensional. The path of least resistance would be to stop the run.

Not that it’s a simple matter. FIU running backs Shomari Lawrence (566 yards) and Kejon Owens (453 yards) are both solid, and there’s the possibility that 2022 leading rusher Lexington Joseph (536 yards) returns from a knee injury.

If Indiana’s defensive line can keep those backs in-check, it would make FIU’s offense more predictable and put the burden on Jenkins to make plays against a defense that knows the run is not an option they have to worry about.

3. Be patient, because FIU might wear down

One of the things that stood out like a sore thumb for FIU in 2023 was its fourth quarter scoring plunge.

The Panthers scored 64, 74 and 65 points in the first, second and third quarters last season, but they dropped off to just 25 total points in the fourth quarter, a paltry total for 12 games played. FIU was outscored 87-25 in the final period overall.

Indiana wasn’t exactly the greatest closing games in 2023 either. The Hoosiers were outscored 83-65 in the fourth quarter, but what might be more relevant, given the new coaching staff and infusion of their players, is what James Madison did when the clock ticked down.

The Dukes out-scored their opponents 111-64 in the final period. JMU was remarkably consistent from one quarter to the next, not scoring less than 99 or more than 116 in any quarter in its season totals.

The Panthers have to prove to themselves that they can sustain what they do well for all 60 minutes, much less force what they can do on the Hoosiers for the duration. That’s a tall order on the road.

Score prediction

We won’t be having any of that EA College Football 25 simulated game drama in this space!

I don’t think it’s going to be a coronation for Indiana, but I also don’t think it’s going to be a nail-biter either. Indiana has too much talent to burn, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The anticipation level is always high for the first game, but it will be more so as the lid-lifter on the Cignetti era.

With so many players on the roster who have proven they can win? I think those 13 James Madison transfers will show the way in an exciting, but measured, style of play.

Indiana also has the playmakers to press FIU into turnovers. I think the Hoosiers force at least three on Saturday.

I think Indiana wins 41-21. A straightforward start to a season that has a lot of promise.

Related stories on Indiana football

• DEPTH CHART PREDICTION: Here's our best guess at how the Hoosiers will line up for Week 1 against Florida International. CLICK HERE

• 10 QUESTIONS PREVIEWING IU FOOTBALL SEASON: The 2024 Indiana football season begins Saturday against Florida International. Below we answered 10 questions heading into coach Curt Cignetti’s first season. CLICK HERE

• MEET THE OPPONENT: If history is an indicator, it could be a high-scoring game as Indiana and Florida International meet for the fourth time in the last decade. CLICK HERE

• CIGNETTI PREVIEWS SEASON ON RADIO SHOW: Indiana coach Curt Cignetti shed light on Indiana's upcoming season on his weekly radio show. CLICK HERE.