Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys For Indiana Football Against UCLA

What do the Hoosiers need to do to prevail against the Bruins? Here are three keys to success and a score prediction for the game.

Indiana Hoosiers running back Justice Ellison (6) runs the ball for a touchdown in the second half against the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Right now, I’m in the honeymoon phase with the expanded Big Ten.

I’m all in on fresh teams to play and new destinations to explore. I’m happy to welcome some different colors into the league, whether it’s Oregon’s kelly-ish green or UCLA’s baby blue. I’m intrigued by a Big Ten map commercial that was seemingly filmed off a camera on the International Space Station.

Indiana’s football team gets the honor of being the first of the traditional Big Ten schools to make the trip out to the West Coast for a football conference game as the Hoosiers travel to Pasadena, Calif. to take on UCLA at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.

How cool is that? The Rose Bowl – hallowed ground for Midwestern college football denizens – is a very choice way to begin this brave new world college athletics has become.

It helps to travel with a positive mindset. Indiana enters in a confident state of mind. Two emphatic victories, both of which were executed with minimum fuss, have the Hoosiers believing in all possibilities on the menu for their season. UCLA, viewed as a team in flux, could be ripe for the picking.

This optimistic phase feels pretty good. For the Big Ten as a whole? Who knows how long the honeymoon period will last? Eventually, these West Coast trips will shake off their novelty and become a drag for the athletes and others who make these trips. It will slip from fun adventure to routine in shorter order.

As for the honeymoon period for the Hoosiers? It’s within their power to extend it for as long as they wish. We’ll soon see if their spot-on execution was due to inferior competition or due to their own mastery of Curt Cignetti’s ways and means.

Here’s some keys for Saturday’s game against UCLA.

1. Follow the Hawaii template and stop the run

Western Illinois Leathernecks running back Cameren Smith (25) runs the ball while Indiana Hoosiers defensive defends in the second half at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

UCLA opened the season with a tricky trip to Hawaii. The Bruins escaped the islands with a narrow 16-13 win, but there was one glaring flaw in their offensive attack.

UCLA did not move the ball on the ground. The Bruins rushed for 71 yards on 20 carries, an average of 3.5 yards, which isn’t stout, but teams have certainly done worse.

However, when you look at how those numbers were compiled, alarm bells go off. Quarterback Ethan Garbers accounted for 47 of UCLA’s 71 yards. UCLA running backs combined for just 24 rushing yards.

This plays right into Indiana’s hands. The Hoosiers have been stingy against the run, allowing just 32.5 yards per game in its two victories. This falls in line with Cignetti and defensive coordinator Bryant Haines general prowess against the run. In 2023, James Madison allowed just 83.8 yards per game.

If Hawaii can do it, Indiana is certainly capable too.

2. Keep up good work on turnover margin

Indiana's Amare Ferrell (25) celebrates after he made the interception during the second half of the Indiana versus Florida International football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

Indiana has a turnover margin of plus-four so far. The Hoosiers forced one turnover against Florida International and three against Western Illinois. Indiana has not yet turned the ball over itself.

The latter point is the key. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke did fumble twice against FIU and got away with it, but he’s been smart with his throws and hasn’t forced anything. That will obviously need to continue against far better UCLA defenders than what Rourke has seen so far. Same goes for the running backs, who have been good on ball security so far.

The turnovers forced number by Indiana is a little bit misleading. All three of the turnovers forced against the Leathernecks came with reserves on the field for the Hoosiers. Nothing wrong with that, but when it comes to starter versus starter, it would be ideal if Indiana can be opportunistic.

3. Keep up the good work in the kicking game

This game figures to be closer than Indiana’s other games have been – if for no other reason than it’s a road game against a higher-quality opponent.

If it’s close, the kicking game takes on far greater importance. Not just place-kicking, but kickoffs that determine field position.

So far, Indiana has been flawless in both departments. Nicolas Radicic won the place-kicking job in camp and has rewarded the decision by making his only field goal attempt and all 15 extra-points.

Derek McCormick didn’t get the place-kicking job, but he’s been extremely consistent on kickoffs. Of his 11 kickoffs, nine of them have resulted in touchbacks.

Every little bit helps on the road. So far, the kicking has been on-point.

Score prediction

I predicted an Indiana win before the season. My rationale was based on Indiana playing one game more than UCLA has.

I think this is the only time of the season where that discrepancy matters. With a new coach, UCLA is still trying to find its feet. Its shaky first-game performance just amplifies that dynamic.

Meanwhile, Indiana cruised in two games against inferior competition. UCLA is far better, but the advantage of rolling two easy foes is the confidence the Hoosiers have generated from the ease of the victories. Nothing has happened yet where any player would have any doubt about Cignetti’s methods.

Yes, UCLA has more film on Indiana due to the extra game for the Hoosiers, something coaches don’t like, but I’d rather have banked the game time than the alternative.

By October, playing one more game doesn’t matter as much because of the sheer amount of games played by that point, but in mid-September, it’s a crucial advantage to have an extra game under your belt – particularly in a matchup with two new coaches.

Thanks to that, I’m sticking with my initial belief that Indiana will win. I think the Hoosiers prevail 28-13.

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