Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys For Indiana Football Against Western Illinois

Hoosiers, Leathernecks do battle in a FBS-FCS showdown that will be more of a test of Curt Cignetti’s patience with the fans than it is likely to be on the field.

Indiana Hoosiers running back Elijah Green (21) runs for a touchdown against the Florida International Panthers during the second half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – During his radio show Wednesday, Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti once again broached the topic of Indiana fan habits at games.

He was diplomatic, but he made his point. His standard is a sellout crowd that sticks around for the whole game. He acknowledged that it will take time, but he did not waver in setting the highest bar for the fanbase to reach.

“I did notice how empty the stadium was in the second half. And I know our players did too, and that does have an effect. And that's why, you know, the crowd is a 12th man. We need you there. We need you cheering –  create momentum, energy in the stadium,” Cignetti said on Wednesday.

Indiana fans seemed to take Cignetti’s postgame words to heart after he mentioned the issue in the wake of the Hoosiers’ 31-7 victory over Florida International Saturday. Anecdotal, but I heard fans in the grocery store talking about it the day after the game. Football talk is not something I’ve heard since I relocated to Bloomington.

I think some people agreed with Cignetti. Others said it was too soon to hear it, and still others want the Hoosiers to do more on the field before they generate the level of devotion Cignetti seeks. I think those are all fair opinions. After all, Cignetti isn’t the first coach to come to Indiana promising to change the culture and start winning.

The off-field culture shift will take time, and a 7 p.m. ET Friday game against Western Illinois won’t be any kind of acid test of where it’s going.

I hope expectations are calibrated appropriately for what kind of crowd does show up. It’s a Friday night game against an opponent that doesn’t sell tickets. I do think the students will show up, because they can create a Friday night party vibe, but the adult crowd? We’ll see.

It’s high school football night. All three Monroe County high schools play at home, and of course, there’s action all over the state. Friday Night Lights is part of the fabric of the schools, especially in smaller towns, and it’s a real shame that the Big Ten and its broadcast partners trod on the tradition of high school football that so many hold dear.

In other words? I don’t expect a sudden run on the ticket office Friday. So I hope Cignetti and the players are patient.

“Look, I want to be the best in everything we do. That should be the goal. And so, you know, baby steps,” Cignetti said Wednesday.

Good advice to live by. Here’s three keys that will be important to get a victory over Western Illinois. There is also a score prediction at the bottom of the story.

1. Let Kurtis Rourke show what he can do … but not for too long

Indiana's Kurtis Rourke (9) passes during the first half of the Indiana versus Florida International football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke had a perfectly acceptable first game. Rourke completed 15 of 24 passes for 180 yards and one touchdown. Rourke executed a conservative gameplan as the passing game went. It would be nice to open things up for him.

I’d like to see him take some shots downfield. I’d like to see how he dissects his downfield options with really good protection. I’d like to see if he can keep a drive alive with his legs if it calls for it.

And I’d like to see it all before The Marching Hundred takes to the field at halftime. It would be optimal for Rourke to get Indiana into the end zone on all of the Hoosiers’ first half series so he can take it easy and watch his fellow quarterbacks take care of the second half.

2. A lot of players need to play

Indiana's CJ West clelebrates a sack during the first half of the Indiana versus Florida International football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

Indiana used 55 players in its 31-7 win over Florida International last Saturday. That’s not bad against a lesser foe, but when games get to be blowouts against FCS competition. You want as many players to get a chance to play as possible.

It’s not just because of injury avoidance for the core players or for sportsmanship purposes, though those matter, too. With college football allowing players to play as many as four games before they burn a redshirt, a rout against a FCS team offers a real opportunity to look at the width and breadth of your roster in a real game atmosphere.

Last year, when Indiana defeated Indiana State 41-7, Tom Allen managed to get 73 Hoosiers into the game. I’d love to see a number near that Friday.

3. Score a special teams or defensive touchdown

When I used to write these kinds of stories from the FCS perspective, one of the things the underdog wanted to avoid was a special teams touchdown.

It’s not as easy as it sounds. There are areas of the field where a FCS team can more or less hang physically with a FBS team, but one place you see the major difference is in the athleticism and speed a FBS team has over a FCS team on special teams. FBS rosters are bigger, they recruit at a higher level, and that’s often born out in special teams mismatches.

Punt returner Myles Price and kick returners Solomon Vanhorse and Ke’Shawn Williams should be licking their chops. FCS teams just can’t put special teams gunners on the field to handle the speed and blocking difference.

The same rule applies to defensive touchdowns. They’re always demoralizing for an opponent when you can force one, but when the margin of being competitive for a FCS team is so slim? A defensive TD is a dagger that often can’t be overcome.

Score prediction

If this game took place in the 1990s or 2000s? Back when Western Illinois was one of the better programs in FCS? I’d predict a relatively close game. Good FCS teams are often better than mediocre-to-bad FBS teams like Florida International. It’s a division that deserves more respect than it gets at its top level.

However, bad FCS football teams are a standard well-below the worst of FBS. I know from experience, having covered Indiana State at its nadir in the 2000s. Struggling FCS programs are just trying to survive. Very often, they’re also trying to find their way out of being financially mismatched against their peers, much less playing against a team from a Power Four conference.

Sadly, that is the state the once-proud Western Illinois program finds itself in. The Leathernecks have moved down to the Ohio Valley Conference after struggling mightily in its final years in the elite Missouri Valley Football Conference. That should help WIU in the long run.

However, none of that has relevance to Friday. Indiana is also in the process of trying to build something under Cignetti. Indiana plays a Big Ten game the following weekend at UCLA and it doesn’t have the time or inclination to water things down for the Leathernecks. There’s a job to be done.

It will be done, too – and with little mercy. Indiana wins 55-0. It will be far more interesting to see how many fans ride it out to the finish than what we likely will see on the field.

Stories related to Indiana football

• MEET THE OPPONENT: Struggling Western Illinois comes to Memorial Stadium to try to shake off a long losing streak. CLICK HERE.

• WHY PLAY FCS TEAMS? Indiana plays Western Illinois on Friday. Why do the Hoosiers, and so many other Big Ten teams, play FCS teams? An explainer. CLICK HERE.

• CIGNETTI COMMENTS FROM RADIO SHOW: Curt Cignetti's highlights from his weekly radio show. CLICK HERE.