Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys For No. 16 Indiana’s Game Against Nebraska

What do the Hoosiers need to do to prevail against the Cornhuskers? Here are three keys to success and a score prediction for the game.

Indiana Hoosiers defensive back D'Angelo Ponds (5) tackles Maryland Terrapins tight end Dylan Wade (0) during the second half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Here’s a question that isn’t often asked on fall days in the Hoosier state.

Did you miss Indiana football last week?

No. 16 Indiana is 6-0 for the first time since the Lyndon Johnson administration (1967), and none of the games have really been that close. Northwestern pushed Indiana a little harder in the last game before the bye, but the Hoosiers pulled away from the Wildcats for a 41-24 victory.

The team welcomed the bye week. Some players who needed some tender loving care in the form of rest got it. Linebacker Jailin Walker, who left the Northwestern game just before halftime, got time to heal up. Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said Walker should be able to play on Saturday. We’ll never know, but that might not have been possible without the bye.

So byes are generally good. Indiana has another one in November – a well-timed break that gives the Hoosiers two weeks to prepare for a game at No. 4 Ohio State on Nov. 23.

The thing you worry about from a bye week when teams are playing well is whether they can sustain their momentum. Teams can talk all they want about maintaining their edge, fighting human nature and all of that, but you never really know until you get on the field. Given that Nebraska – Indiana’s opponent at Noon ET on Saturday – is better than Indiana’s previous foes, this lingering worry might have more legitimacy.

What does the track record say? There’s little point in checking Indiana’s record against previous bye weeks – these Hoosiers are a different breed of cat from any recent Indiana teams. The better barometer is what Cignetti has done after bye weeks.

To the surprise of no one, he’s done well.

In 2023, James Madison came off their bye week and throttled Georgia Southern 41-13. In 2022, JMU had two bye weeks and split. The Dukes won a tough 32-28 game at Appalachian State after their first week off. A game at Louisville was a tough challenge after their second break and JMU fell 34-10.

When Cignetti coached at the FCS level – FCS has a more compressed season, usually with no more than one bye week – he never lost after a bye week at JMU or Elon.

So far, Cignetti has succeeded in every endeavor at Indiana. He’s provided no reason to doubt his prowess after bye weeks, either.

Here are three keys for Saturday’s game against Nebraska.

1. Set a defensive tone

Indiana's Aiden Fisher (4) and Mikail Kamara (6) wrap up Charlotte's Bryce Kennon (86) during the Indiana versus Charlotte football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What is the real Indiana defense? In the Hoosiers’ last two games against Maryland and Northwestern, the Hoosiers gave up 26 points per game, but it was a different tale in each contest.

Against Maryland, the points the Terrapins scored in Indiana’s 42-28 win don’t look good. The Terps amassed 401 yards of total offense, but those numbers were largely a case of talking loud and saying nothing.

Maryland was 5 of 15 on third down and Indiana put pressure on quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., sacking him five times. Though the numbers don’t reflect it, the defense really set the tone for the Hoosiers.

Indiana gave up fewer points in its 41-24 victory at Northwestern, and less yardage (336) too, but Northwestern was effective when it needed to be.

To wit, Northwestern averaged 4.2 yards per play as opposed to the 3.7 yards the Terrapins averaged the previous week. Northwestern was far from great on third down, but it was slightly more efficient with a 5 of 13 conversion rate.

A big part of this perception was that the Wildcats created more pass plays of 15 yards or more – 10 in all – than Maryland did. Northwestern quarterback Jack Lausch also ran the ball effectively to get away from pressure.

One tie that binds both games is that when the chips were down, Indiana’s defense was at its best. Maryland only scored on one of its final six drives allowing Indiana’s offense to pull away in the fourth quarter. Northwestern trailed by just three points early in the fourth quarter, but Indiana stymied the Wildcats on their final two series.

Playing at home against a Nebraska offense that is OK, but not great, the defense needs to set a tone and maintain it. Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola is not a runner, so if Indiana can apply pressure in the manner it did against Maryland, that desired tone can be set.

2. Win The Battle Of Good First Half Teams

Nebraska Cornhuskers tight end Thomas Fidone II (24) is tackled by Purdue Boilermakers defensive back Joseph Jefferson II (32) during the second quarter at Ross-Ade Stadium. / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Winning the first half would seem to be an easy task for the Hoosiers. After all, Indiana has 73-0 edge in the first quarter this season, but the Cornhuskers have  also been first-half masters.

The Cornhuskers have won the first quarter by a 38-17 margin, but the rubber meets the road for Nebraska in the second quarter whe,n the Huskers enjoy a 58-3 advantage.

Nebraska seems to rise to the occasion, depending on the opponent. Bizarrely, 10 of the 17 first quarter points they gave up were against unfancied UTEP and FCS Northern Iowa. The other seven first quarter points were conceded against Illinois.

Nebraska hasn’t given up any second quarter points in its last two games.

It’s a daunting defense Indiana is facing, but the Hoosiers have been a handful in the first half, too. In its first quarter shutout streak, the only team to gain more than 35 yards in the first quarter was Charlotte (91). In the last two games, Indiana gave up minus-2 yards to Maryland and 10 to Northwestern.

Indiana wasn’t able to sustain that stinginess, but it would behoove them to this week as Nebraska can consistently make stops just like the Hoosiers.

3. Nicolas Radicic has to continue to be fantastic

Indiana Hoosiers Head Coach Curt Cignetti high-fives Indiana Hoosiers kicker Nicolas Radicic (39) against the Florida International Panthers during the second half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

An under-played story of 2024 is the dependability of place-kicker Nicolas Radicic.

He’s made all 39 of his extra points. He isn’t called upon to kick field goals very often given the prowess of Indiana’s offense, but he’s made all four he’s attempted.

The Hoosiers haven’t been involved in many close games so far, so the kicking game has been easy to overlook. Saturday’s game is likely to be much closer. Radicic hasn’t had a miss all season. His dependability could be a lot more impactful on Saturday if the Hoosiers find themselves in a tight game.

Score prediction

Nebraska is the best defense Indiana has faced to date, but Indiana is also the best defense the Huskers have faced.

The question is how much Nebraska can disrupt Indiana’s efficiency. No team has successfully sustained stops against quarterback Kurtis Rourke and company. Nebraska has the capability to, but will they?

What I can’t shake from my own mind is that Nebraska’s offense has been pedestrian in recent games. The Huskers scored 14 against a solid Rutgers defense on its home field. Nebraska managed 28 against a porous Purdue defense the week before, and 21 of those points were scored in the fourth quarter.

Playing at home in front of a sellout crowd, I think No. 16 Indiana can handle this challenge. The Hoosiers may not be as high-flying as they have been in other games, but they may not need to be. Indiana’s defense is going to get to Raiola for at least four sacks, and the Hoosiers will feed off the tone set by its defense. Indiana wins this 24-13.

Related stories on Indiana football

• MEET THE OPPONENT: Read all about what Nebraska brings to the table for Saturday's game. CLICK HERE.

• INDIANA ADJUSTING TO MORE ATTENTION: Curt Cignetti noted that it's all part of being successful. CLICK HERE.

• WHAT CIGNETTI SAID: Here's what Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said during Monday's press conference as Indiana approaches its homecoming game against Nebraska. CLICK HERE

• JAILIN WALKER EXPECTED TO PLAY: Indiana coach Curt Cignetti gave an injury update on starting linebacker Jailin Walker. CLICK HERE

• AP TOP 25 POLL: Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers had the weekend off, but they climbed two spots to No. 16 in Sunday's AP Top 25 poll ahead of their homecoming game against Nebraska. CLICK HERE

• NEBRASKA GAME SOLD OUT: Indiana announced that its Homecoming game against Nebraska on Oct. 19 is sold out. CLICK HERE.