Indiana Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys For Northwestern

Bowl eligibility could be clinched at a very early date. What do the Hoosiers need to do to prevail against the Wildcats? Here are three keys to success and a score prediction for the game.

Indiana's Ty Son Lawton (17) runs during the Indiana versus Maryland football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Six-win bowl eligibility isn’t a standard that has as much history as you might think.

The rule was only standardized in 2006 and coincided with the then-new 12-game regular season schedule.

Prior to that, there was no formal rule for bowl eligibility, but the unwritten rule was that a winning record was required. Since most of the non-major, non-traditional bowls came to be no earlier than the 1970s, the period in which the 11-game schedule was formalized, six wins were the de facto standard.

Indiana has a chance to reach six-win bowl eligibility if it can defeat Northwestern at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The calendar just turned to October. If the Hoosiers pull off their sixth win, it will occur on Oct. 5.

If it happens, will it be the earliest date Indiana has reached six wins? Here’s a rundown of dates where the six-win threshold was achieved in a 12 or 11-game season:

2020 – Dec. 5 (COVID-19 pandemic delayed the start of the season, but Indiana still needed seven games to get to six wins.)

2019 – Oct. 26

2016 – Nov. 26

2015 – Nov. 28

2007 – Nov. 3

1994 – Nov. 19

1993 – Oct. 23

1991 – Nov. 23

1990 – Nov. 24

1988 – Oct. 29

1987 – Oct. 24

1986 – Nov. 8

1980 – Nov. 15

1979 – Nov. 3

The 1967 Rose Bowl team, which played in the 10-game era, started 6-0. But the college football season started later at the time, so the ‘67 Hoosiers reached six wins on Oct. 28.

So in case you hadn’t already suspected, yes, the Hoosiers are in uncharted waters when it comes to achieving potential bowl eligibility at such an early date.

Here are three keys and a prediction for the Northwestern game:

1. Kurtis Rourke can’t force the issue

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) throws a pass against the Maryland Terrapins during the first half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Rourke has been very good for the Hoosiers so far, but you would be avoiding the obvious to say that Indiana hasn’t really faced a good defense yet.

Maryland was, by far, the best defense the Hoosiers have faced. Even though Rourke threw for 359 yards and completed 66.7% of his passes, he also forced a few passes. Two resulted in interceptions. A few more could have been.

Northwestern can pressure the quarterback. The Wildcats average three sacks per game, so Rourke will likely see some pressure. Most of his decisions through the season have been spot-on. That needs to continue in the face of the increased pressure that Rourke will face from Northwestern and from higher-quality defenses he’ll face as the season goes on.

2. Continue to control third down

Indiana Hoosiers running back Justice Ellison (6) scores a touchdown against the Maryland Terrapins during the second half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The numbers don’t lie. Indiana leads the Big Ten with a 57.4% conversion rate on third down. Northwestern is the league’s worst third down team with a 27.5% conversion rate.

The Hoosiers’ balance has helped them master third down. Indiana’s running game is probably most appreciated when you take third down into consideration. With the back-by-committee approach,  Ty Son Lawton, Justice Ellison or Kaelon Black are always theoretically fresh to move the sticks.

Part of Indiana’s success is also having shorter third downs to convert. Of the 54 third down situations Indiana has faced, 36 of them have been conversions of 7 yards or less.

Indiana’s defense has also been very good on third down. Hoosier opponents have only converted 30.2% of their third down opportunities.

3. Keep up the good injury luck

Not a controllable key, but Indiana’s injury fortune has been all good so far during the regular season. The only injuries of note were suffered by running back Kaelon Black, who didn’t miss any games, and now-departed wide receiver Donaven McCulley.

Indiana is deep at receiver and in the backfield. The Hoosiers aren’t as blessed with depth in either line or at linebacker. So far, Indiana’s good health means it hasn’t mattered and that trend needs to continue.

Prediction

It’s a road test at a strange site – Northwestern’s temporary lakeside stadium – but given how efficient Indiana has been and how much the Wildcats have struggled to move the ball? It’s hard to envision a worst-case scenario for the Hoosiers that involves losing. Indiana wins 31-12 as the undefeated dream season continues apace.

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