Game Day Prediction: Indiana Desperate For Turnaround Against Rutgers

After a 3-0 start, Indiana football has lost four games in a row heading into a road matchup with Rutgers on Saturday at Noon ET.

Indiana concluded its 2021 season with eight straight losses, and the 2022 Hoosiers are trending in a similar direction. 

Following four consecutive losses, a road trip to Rutgers on Saturday represents Indiana's best chance at a win for the rest of the season. If the Hoosiers are going to stop their season from completely slipping away, now is the time to do so. After a bye week next week, Indiana has No. 16 Penn State, No. 2 Ohio State, Michigan State and Purdue to end the regular season. 

Indiana and Rutgers kick off Saturday's game at Noon ET at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, N.J. Rutgers dominated Indiana last season in 38-3 blowout in Bloomington. Let's break down what it will take for Indiana to get back in the win column this week. 

The case for a win

For the Indiana defense, this matchup presents plenty of unknown factors. I broke down Rutgers quarterback carousel earlier in the week, and it's definitely a storyline to keep an eye on. This could be viewed as a disadvantage for Indiana from a preparation perspective, but each of the three quarterbacks have shown significant struggles this year. 

Evan Simon has taken the most snaps under center this year, but he's thrown six interceptions and only four touchdowns with a 57.7 completion percentage. Noah Vedral is an experienced presence, but coach Greg Schiano said Vedral still had trouble gripping the football during Rutgers' loss to Nebraska on Oct. 7. Vedral completed 6-of-15 passes that game, his only action of the season after 13 starts in 2021. Sophomore Gavin Wimsatt, a former top-200 player and four-star prospect, is coming off an injury and has similar turnover issues. Wimsatt appears to have potential talent down the road, but he didn't separate himself from Vedral and Simon in the offseason to earn the starting job. 

Whoever lines up at quarterback – it could be all three throughout the game – will be the least-intimidating passer Indiana has faced since Week 2 against Idaho, and perhaps all season. Rutgers had a bye week to rework its offense after firing offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson, but major improvements shouldn't be expected right away.

Yes, Indiana's defense has been a serious letdown this season, and it will continue to play without team captain linebacker Cam Jones. The Hoosiers have allowed the second-most passing yards, fourth-most rushing yards and most points per game among Big Ten teams this season. But based on the matchup, I think Indiana holds its opponent below 30 points for the first time since Week 2, giving the Hoosier offense a chance to win the game. 

The case for a loss

Rutgers claimed early-season road wins over Boston College and Temple largely thanks to the strength of its run defense. Boston College ran the ball 28 times for 29 yards, and Temple generated just 49 yards on 30 attempts. Even in a Week 7 loss to Nebraska, the Cornhuskers were held to 2.5 yards per carry. 

Rutgers has proven it can take away a team's run game, and Indiana's offense has fallen victim to that focus throughout the season. Only five teams in the FBS rush for fewer yards per game than the Hoosiers at 83. 

I see Rutgers shutting down the Indiana run game and making the Hoosiers one-dimensional, forcing another pass-heavy day from quarterback Connor Bazelak. While he ranks third in the Big Ten with 1,889 passing yards, Bazelak's 54.6 completion percentage is 13th in the conference. 

Behind an offensive line that is still searching for its best five players, Bazelak and the Indiana offense has been plagued by inconsistencies and turnovers in costly situations. 

My prediction

I wrote last week that I won't feel confident enough to pick Indiana to win again until it proves the ability to play a complete game, offensively. After scoring two touchdowns in each half against Maryland, there's argument to be made that Indiana played its most well-rounded game as an offense last week. 

But turnovers continue to be a problem for the Indiana offense, and the Hoosiers' defense has flat out collapsed in the fourth quarter the last three weeks. Part of that is the fact that offense's inability to stay on the field wears out the defense, but it's a concerning trend, regardless.

In a back-and-forth battle, I think Rutgers comes away with a 24-23 win over Indiana. 

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