Game Day Prediction: Hoosiers Refocus Against New-Look Idaho Vandals After Emotional Win

The Indiana football team hosts the Idaho Vandals on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium in Week 2. Tom Allen and the Hoosiers won a crucial game against Illinois last week, but will need to refocus heading into a matchup with a brand new Idaho team led by coach Jason Eck.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana's 23-20 victory over Illinois in Week 1 won't carry the tag 'ranked win' as the season progresses, but make no mistake, it ranks high on the list of most important wins under Tom Allen.

Following a 2-10 season last year, step one for the Hoosiers in 2022 was creating belief and momentum – two intangible yet vital qualities for any successful team. And after poised two-minute drill from new quarterback Connor Bazelak to win the game, that was certainly the postgame sentiment from Allen and the Hoosiers. 

"We haven't sung that stinking fight song for a long time after a win," Allen said. "This team's been through so much, and they've continued to fight and battle and battle and battle and battle. And they did that tonight. So, I couldn't be more proud. It's a huge win for us."

Indiana Hoosiers defensive back Noah Pierre (21) celebrates his fumble recovery with teammates in the second half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, I wrote that the result of Week 1 could completely change my thoughts on this Indiana team due to the extensive unknowns entering the season. So, does Indiana's three-point win over Illinois at home as the favorite suddenly swing the 2022 season from questions and concerns to certainty and confidence?

No – even Allen conceded frustrations and struggles despite the victory – but if there's any chance of Indiana returning to bowl eligibility like 2019 and 2020, Illinois was a win the Hoosiers had to have. 

And now, Indiana is in a position to surpass its win total from 2021 in the first three weeks. That starts with the Hoosiers hosting Idaho on Saturday night at 8 p.m. ET before the final leg of a trio of home games to start the year on Sept. 17 versus Western Kentucky at Noon. 

Indiana still has the 12th most difficult schedule in the country, according to ESPN, but a 3-0 start can go a long way to solidifying the belief and momentum that Week 1's win created. But before we get too ahead of ourselves, Allen has pleaded to his team all week not to overlook the Idaho Vandals.

Indiana steamrolled Idaho last year in a 56-14 victory, but like the Hoosiers, the Vandals have gone through significant personnel and coaching changes. 

"Any level of focusing on what happened a year ago and thinking that's how it's going to be again is false," Allen said. "Fortunately, we've got a lot of new faces and we've got a team full of guys that still have a really bad taste in their mouths about how the season went a year ago. So to me, that combination is going to create a focus and an edge that we have to have to play our best football."

Jason Eck is Idaho's new head coach after spending the last six years as the offensive coordinator at South Dakota State, an FCS powerhouse. Eck made three playoff semifinal appearances and reached the 2021 national championship game with South Dakota State, and he brought along two assistants to be his offensive and defensive coordinators. 

The Vandals drove down the field with a chance to tie or win the game at Washington State, but redshirt freshman quarterback Gevani McCoy threw an interception on the Washington State 28-yard line with 12 seconds to go. Idaho was a 28.5-point underdog, but ultimately lost 24-17 on the road against a Pac-12 opponent. 

McCoy is mobile in the pocket and completed an impressive fourth-down throw on the drive that gave Idaho a 10-0 lead over Washington State, but interceptions have been a major issue early in his career. He has a 56.2 completion percentage, and in three starts at Idaho, McCoy has thrown six interceptions. Against a talented, veteran Indiana defensive backfield, I think that trend continues. 

McCoy's favorite receiving targets are Jermaine Jackson, a 5-foot-7 junior who caught six passes for 113 yards in Week 1, and Hayden Hatten, a 6-foot-2 redshirt sophomore that hauled in 10 receptions for 94 yards and two touchdowns against Indiana in 2021.

Defensively, Idaho created a lot of havoc against Washington State with three fumble recoveries, three sacks and three quarterback hurries. Fa'Avae Fa'Avae led the Vandals with 11 total tackles, and Mishawaka, Ind. native Paul Moala now plays safety for Idaho after beginning his career at Notre Dame.

Idaho Vandals linebacker Fa'Avae Fa'Avae (2) celebrates after a defensive stop against the Washington State Cougars in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Washington State won 24-17 / James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

My prediction

A pressing concern for Indiana going into this game is how the offensive line will handle the Idaho defensive front following the loss of starting right tackle Matthew Bedford, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. West Texas A&M transfer Parker Hanna steps in to replace Bedford in a position group that was arguably Indiana's biggest weakness against Illinois.

But when Big Ten and FCS teams face off, one of the biggest mismatches is typically seen along the offensive and defensive lines. Despite the loss of Bedford, as well as Indiana's deficiency in stopping the run last week, the Hoosiers will have a size advantage up front. 

I think we'll see Shaun Shivers be able to run the ball with more success, creating a  well-balanced offense led by Bazelak, whose chemistry and timing with D.J. Matthews, Cam Camper and a talented receiving corps will improve.  Allen's defensive play-calling will lead to more takeaways like it did against Illinois, frustrating McCoy throughout the evening. 

I see this one going Indiana 44, Idaho 13.

Related stories on Indiana football:

• HOW TO WATCH: Indiana football hosts the Idaho Vandals on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind. for a Week 2 matchup. The Hoosiers are coming off a 23-20 win over Illinois in Week 1, and Idaho kept things close at Washington State in a 24-17 loss. Here's how to watch, with game time and TV information, the latest on the point spread and three things to see from Indiana. CLICK HERE
• HOOSIER ROUNDTABLE PODCAST: During the first episode of the ''Hoosier Roundtable'' podcast on HoosiersNow.com, we sat down and talked at length with Indiana linebacker Cam Jones and tight end AJ Barner to break down the Hoosiers' 23-20 win over Illinois. Here's the entire 33-minute podcast. CLICK HERE
• MEET THE IDAHO VANDALS: Following a 23-20 win over Illinois in the season opener, the Indiana football team will host the Idaho Vandals at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday at Memorial Stadium. It's time to meet the Vandals. CLICK HERE
• BEAU ROBBINS' PATIENCE PAYS OFF: Indiana defensive end Beau Robbins was forced to be patient during his first three years as a Hoosier, but after steady commitment in the weight room, to his diet and on the practice field, he came through with a crucial sack on Illinois' final drive to help Indiana start the 2022 season with a 23-20 win. CLICK HERE