Hoosiers Now

Game Day Prediction: Indiana Seeks Revenge Against Cincinnati in First Road Game

Indiana (3-0) travels to Cincinnati (2-1) for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff at Nipper Stadium. The first road game of the year represents a chance for Indiana to avenge last year's loss to Cincinnati. Here's my prediction.

Jack Ankony

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CINCINNATI, Ohio – Indiana hit the road on Friday for its first game outside of Memorial Stadium in the 2022 season.

Indiana holds a 3-0 record heading into a matchup with Cincinnati at Nippert Stadium on Saturday for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff, which is when the real fun starts. Not only is it Indiana’s first road game, but it’s the first game in which Tom Allen and the Hoosiers are the underdogs.

According to the SI Sportsbook, Cincinnati is a 16.5-point favorite as of Saturday morning, setting up what is clearly Indiana’s toughest test to date. It’s time to see what Indiana is really made of. Because in reality, the Hoosiers have won three games as the favorite while playing in the comfort of their home stadium.

Already winning more games than its disastrous 2-10 season in 2021 is probably why it feels like Indiana has proved doubters wrong through three weeks. Indiana was picked to finish last in the Big Ten East with a projected win total of four games.  

Maybe its the fast-paced offense offensive coordinator Walt Bell has implemented to erase memories of last year’s Indiana offense that gained fewer yards and scored fewer touchdowns than any Big Ten team. Maybe it’s Tom Allen going back to his defensive play-calling roots and producing takeaways like 2020 Hoosiers did.

But before we jump to any conclusions about Indiana shattering season-long expectations, let's recognize that Cincinnati, Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State and others are still on the schedule. The late-game magic that Indiana used to beat Illinois and Western Kentucky is likely unsustainable playing in a Big Ten East division that's a combined 20-1. It will be especially difficult to come back and in Saturday's matchup against Cincinnati, should Indiana face an early deficit. 

Last year’s game between Indiana and Cincinnati can be bookmarked as a major turning point for both teams. Indiana lost All-American linebacker Micah McFadden to a controversial targeting call late in the first half, turned the ball over twice in costly situations and were outscored by Cincinnati 15-0 in the fourth quarter to lose 38-24.

On the flip side, Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell said this week that he learned a lot about his team from that win over Indiana last year. Yes, he knew that quarterback Desmond Ridder and the eight other 2022 NFL Draft picks could play at a high level, but he started to see the pieces around them form into a College Football Playoff team.

“To be down the way we were, to be facing what it is we were facing on the road,” Fickell said. “I thought that really helped define us as a team.”

It’s a loss that still stings for returning Hoosiers, and it appears the newcomers have felt its impact, as well.

“I know for sure that these guys should have won, we should have won here last year,” Simmons said. “I know with us going to their place and playing on the road and them being our first away game, I know we’re going to take pride in that.”

The Hoosiers will take the field on Saturday with some added motivation as they seek to avenge last year’s loss, but motivation alone won’t be enough to take down a talented Cincinnati team in their home stadium.

The Bearcats lost a huge chunk of talent last year, but Fickell has built one of the top programs in college football in recent years. Cincinnati boasts a 50-16 record under Fickell, including a 22-2 stretch during the 2020 and 2021 seasons with the two losses coming against Georgia and Alabama.

Ben Bryant took over for Ridder at quarterback, and he’s completed 70 percent of passes through three games. Despite losing nine players to the NFL Draft, Cincinnati traveled to Arkansas for its season opener and took the Razorbacks down to the wire in a seven-point loss. Culture is a word often thrown around in college sports – sure, it can seem cliché at times – but it’s clear that Fickell has built a sustainable brand of football that can withstand talent departure.

My prediction

If Indiana has any chance to win this game, it will take a start that we haven’t seen all year long. The Hoosiers have scored 91 points this season, but only six of them have come in the first quarter of games. In the first road game of the season, Indiana has to find a way to score an early touchdown or two to keep this one close.

Saturday’s contest also represents the biggest challenge of Parker Hanna and Caleb Murphy’s careers as offensive linemen. Hanna, a Division II transfer from West Texas A&M, stepped in for Matthew Bedford at right tackle after Bedford tore his ACL against Illinois. Indiana’s starting center Zach Carpenter went down in pregame warmups last week, forcing Murphy to make his first career start. Indiana passed the ball 55 times last week, but defeating Cincinnati will require a balanced attack in both the run and pass games. Keep an eye on this matchup in the trenches.

Defensively, Indiana is led by a group of veterans in Cam Jones, Tiawan Mullen, Jaylin Williams and Devon Matthews that won’t be intimidated by a talented opponent or raucous road atmosphere. Allen has been critical of Indiana’s run defense through three games, but I think the Hoosier defense will find a key takeaway or two to keep this game in check.

But in the end, I see Cincinnati’s 28-game home winning streak continuing with a 34-20 win over Indiana. The Hoosiers will hang around, but settling for a few too many field goals will allow Cincinnati to pull away in the second half. 

Related stories on Indiana football:

  • HOW TO WATCH: Indiana (3-0) travels to Cincinnati (2-1) for a Week 4 matchup on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET from Nippert Stadium. Here's how to watch, with game time and TV information, the latest on the point spread and three things to see from Indiana. CLICK HERE
  • MEET THE BEARCATS: Indiana football carries a 3-0 record into a difficult road contest against the Cincinnati Bearcats. Coach Luke Fickell and Cincinnati defeated Indiana 38-24 last season en route to the College Football Playoff. CLICK HERE
  • LUKE FICKELL PREVIEWS INDIANA: Only fifth-round pick Jerome Ford, who transferred to UC from Alabama, was rated higher than a three-star by recruiting services entering college. CLICK HERE
  • CALEB MURPHY'S JOURNEY TO INDIANA: Redshirt sophomore Caleb Murphy was thrown into the starting lineup for the first time last Saturday after center Zach Carpenter went down with a hand injury in pregame warmups. Coming from West Washington High School, a Class 1A school in Campbellsburg, Ind., Murphy always dreamed of playing at Indiana, and starting was a dream come true. CLICK HERE
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Jack Ankony
JACK ANKONY

Jack Ankony is a Sports Illustrated/FanNation writer for HoosiersNow.com. He graduated from Indiana University's Media School with a degree in journalism. Follow on Twitter @ankony_jack.

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