Game Day Prediction: Indiana Football Season at Critical Juncture Against Maryland

Indiana's game against Maryland on Saturday could be a turning point for the Hoosiers, who have lost three consecutive games after a 3-0 start.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Before the season, this felt like a game to circle as a potential turning point for Indiana's season. As the Hoosiers followed three wins with three losses, that's most definitely the case approaching Saturday's matchup with Maryland at 3:30 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind.  

A win would give Indiana renewed confidence heading into a road trip to Rutgers next week, and all of a sudden, Indiana could be looking at five wins before November. Reaching bowl eligibility would still be no guarantee with No. 10 Penn State, No. 2 Ohio State up next, but matchups with Michigan State (2-4) and Purdue (4-2) to end the year at least give Indiana a shot.

On the other hand, a loss to Maryland on Saturday could mean a downward spiral similar to last season's eight-game losing streak to end the year. But before we get too ahead of ourselves, let's break down Indiana's chances of claiming its fourth win of the season against the Terrapins.

Indiana Hoosiers defensive back Devon Matthews (1) intercepts a ball meant for Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Ronnie Bell (8) in the end zone during the second half at Memorial Stadium. Wolverines won 31-10 / Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

The case for a win

Indiana offensive coordinator Walt Bell wants to play as fast as possible and throw the ball. A lot. 

Quarterback Connor Bazelak leads all FBS quarterbacks with 295 pass attempts this season, and he's 18th in the nation with 1,597. The problem is that he's been wildly inconsistent and inaccurate. Bazelak's 52.5 completion percentage is last in the Big Ten, and he ranks 103rd among FBS passers in ESPN's total quarterback rating metric. 

Most recently, this has led to a pair of second half shutouts against Nebraska and Michigan, two games where Indiana combined to generate -7 total yards in the fourth quarter. Bazelak was sacked seven times against Michigan, and he was without his top two receivers, Cam Camper and D.J. Matthews, against Nebraska.

The offense has reached new lows lately. There's no doubt about that. But Saturday's matchup appears to be a good opportunity for the Hoosiers to get back on track as an offense. Maryland's defense allows 270.3 passing yards per game, which is the third most in the Big Ten and 21st-highest rate in the FBS. Maryland, tied with Indiana, has allowed the most total third-down conversions in the Big Ten. Last week, Purdue quarterback Aidan O'Connell completed 30-of-41 passes for 360 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

For an Indiana offense desperate to play a complete game, this is the matchup to make it happen. If Matthews can play, look for Bazelak to target him early and often. Also keep an eye on Jaylin Lucas, who racked up 65 all-purpose yards on seven touches against Michigan. Lucas always seems to make a defender miss, and Indiana coaches have said they want to get him more involved. 

Here’s that Jaylin Lucas run from last night vs. Nebraska. #iufb https://t.co/b4rQjGmo0T pic.twitter.com/0opBvP0Wc3

— Jack Ankony (@ankony_jack) October 2, 2022

The case for a loss

The offense has shown no signs of being able to fix mistakes and inconsistencies that have existed since Week 1, so why would Saturday be any different? Nebraska entered the game with one of the worst statistical defenses in all of college football, and shut Indiana out in the second half. 

Indiana made a coaching change on the offensive line, firing Darren Hiller and promoting Rod Carey from his quality control role. But with the same personnel that has underperformed this season, it's hard to expect any drastic improvements on game day. 

Defensively, Indiana has been susceptible to explosive plays through the air, similar to Maryland. Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has a plethora of speedy receivers to throw to, and he's improved his accuracy this season to complement his mobility. Indiana's defense has come up with crucial turnovers in almost every game this season, but too often does it get worn down in the second half when the Hoosier offense can't stay on the field. 

Understatement: Wouldn't want to be the QB that has to face this defense. 😰

No. 4 @UMIchFootball's D got after the passer again today. pic.twitter.com/iC9aHDTJ6c

— Michigan On BTN (@MichiganOnBTN) October 8, 2022

My prediction

I think Maryland wins this game 31-23. 

Indiana has to prove it’s capable of playing a complete game, specifically as an offense, before I feel confident in picking them to win a game the rest of the season. I think it will be a close contest throughout, but I see Tagovailoa and Maryland outplaying the Indiana offense in the fourth quarter.

Indiana is also reeling from a few key injuries that have really challenged the team’s depth. Linebacker Cam Jones, perhaps Indiana’s best overall player, is out for several weeks with a foot injury. Jones is a three-time captain and led the Big Ten in total tackles through five weeks. Starting tight end AJ Barner, wide receiver D.J. Matthews and cornerback Jaylin Williams each remain game-time decisions for Saturday.

Related stories on Indiana football:

• HOW TO WATCH: Indiana football (3-3) hosts the Maryland Terrapins (4-2) on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind. Here's how to watch, with game time and TV information, the latest on the point spread and three things to see from Indiana. CLICK HERE
• MATT HOHLT CARVING OUT ROLE ON IU DEFENSE: Matt Hohlt joined Indiana as a walk-on last season, but he's made a strong impression on coach Tom Allen and defensive coordinator Chad Wilt. With the loss of linebacker Cam Jones, Hohlt, along with Aaron Casey and Bradley Jennings Jr., will be counted on as the season moves on. CLICK HERE
• ROD CAREY 'NOT A MIRACLE WORKER': Rod Carey takes over for Darren Hiller as Indiana's offensive line coach ahead of Saturday's matchup with Maryland. Carey, a three-year starter at Indiana under coach Bill Mallory from 1990-93, knows fixing the offensive line will be challenging with six weeks left in the regular season, but he's going to try. CLICK HERE
• WEEK 7 DEPTH CHART, INJURY NOTES: Heading into a Week 7 matchup with Maryland, Indiana football is dealing with injuries to key players Cam Jones, AJ Barner, D.J. Matthews and Jaylin Williams. CLICK HERE
• MARYLAND'S KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH: Maryland travels to Indiana for a Week 7 matchup at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The Terrapins are led by quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, who is second in the Big Ten with 1,731 passing yards. CLICK HERE
• MIKE LOCKSLEY PREVIEWS INDIANA: Maryland football coach Mike Locksley anticipates a fast-paced offense and a blitz-heavy defense when the Terrapins travel to Indiana in Week 7. CLICK HERE