Game Day Prediction: Surging Spartans Battle Struggling Hoosiers for Old Brass Spittoon

Michigan State has won three of its last four games and can lock up bowl eligibility with a win over Indiana, losers of seven games in a row, on Saturday at Noon ET at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Mich.

EAST LANSING, Mich. – Indiana ended the 2021 season with eight consecutive losses, and this season is trending in a similar direction.

After a 3-0 start, the Hoosiers have dropped seven games in a row and will be underdogs in the final two weeks. Indiana is past the gauntlet of its schedule with No. 3 Michigan, No. 11 Penn State and No. 2 Ohio State, but that doesn't mean wins will come any easier in the home stretch. Indiana travels to Michigan State this weekend before hosting Purdue, the possible Big Ten West champ, to end the season. 

Michigan State was ranked No. 15 in the preseason AP poll after an 11-2 campaign in 2021 that featured a win over Pittsburgh in the Peach Bowl. Expectations of a similar season came crashing down rather quickly, though, when Michael Penix Jr. and Washington got out to a 22-0 lead over Michigan State and racked up over 500 total yards in Week 3. 

Michigan State took another ugly loss the following week, falling 34-7 to Minnesota at home. A 14-point loss to Maryland and a blowout defeat against Ohio State moved Michigan State's record to 2-4 and raised serious concern over the 10-year $95 million contract coach Mel Tucker signed last November. 

But Tucker and the Spartans have played some of their best football of the season in recent weeks, winning three of the last four games against Wisconsin, Illinois and Rutgers. Michigan State has improved for a few reasons, primarily because quarterback Payton Thorne is taking better care of the ball and the Spartans' defense has made steady strides. 

Thorne threw four interceptions during Michigan State's four-game losing streak, but he has one turnover during the Spartans' last three wins. The 6-foot-2 junior had perhaps his best game of the season in a double-overtime win against Wisconsin in Week 7, completing 21-of-28 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns. 

On the other side of the ball, Michigan State's defense has shown recent improvement after being one of the Big Ten's weakest units at the start of the season. The Spartans allowed 37.3 points per game during their four game losing streak, but that number has dropped to 23.5 over the last four games. 

Michigan State is still allowing hefty yardage totals – at least 440 yards in three of the last four games – but the defense is getting stops in critical situations. The Spartans held Wisconsin scoreless for 37-plus minutes and forced a fumble to set up a game-winning touchdown in double-overtime. Against Illinois, Michigan State's defense didn't allow a point for 38-plus minutes and stood strong for two fourth-down stops to seal the win. 

With this recent surge, Michigan State can lock up bowl eligibility at home by beating Indiana, which looks like its best opportunity with a trip to No. 11 Penn State next week.

Indiana's Andison Coby (10) runs after the catch during the first half of the Indiana versus Penn State football game at Memorial Stadium on Satruday, Nov. 5, 2022 :: Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

My prediction

Although Tom Allen won't name a starter publicly, signs point to Dexter Williams II making his first career start on Saturday against Michigan State. The switch from Bazelak to Williams gives the Indiana offense a different look with a more mobile quarterback, but there are still questions about Williams' accuracy after a 6-for-19 performance in three-plus quarters at Ohio State.

But no matter if Williams or Bazelak is under center, this Indiana team has shown serious flaws up and down the roster and coaching staff during its seven-game losing streak. The offensive line is banged up and hasn't provided consistent pass protection or running lanes all year. Cam Camper is out for the season and D.J. Matthews didn't play last week, potentially leaving the wide receiver room without its top two options. 

On the other side of the ball, Indiana allows more points, total yards and passing yards than any Big Ten team, and Allen said last week the defense was "getting whipped up front." 

Williams could provide new life to the offense, but it won't be enough to overcome the widespread issues with this team. I predict Michigan State wins 34-20.

Related stories on Indiana football:

• TOM ALLEN'S NIL RANT: Indiana football coach Tom Allen went on a spirited rant about NIL in college athletics on his weekly radio show "Inside Indiana Football" with play-by-play announcer Don Fischer. CLICK HERE
• MICHIGAN STATE PLAYERS TO WATCH, TUCKER'S COMMENTS: Indiana football takes on Michigan State this week in East Lansing, Mich. Heading into the matchup, here are a few Spartans to keep and eye on, as well as coach Mel Tucker's comments on the Hoosiers. CLICK HERE
• SPARTANS DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES: Indiana football (3-7) travels to East Lansing, Mich. to battle the Michigan State Spartans (5-5) in the Old Brass Spittoon rivalry game. The Spartans opened at 13-point favorites, but that number has since dropped. CLICK HERE
• WEEK 12 DEPTH CHART, INJURY UPDATE: Indiana football released its depth chart for a Week 12 road trip to Michigan State, and coach Tom Allen provided an update on a few injured players at Monday's press conference. CLICK HERE
• THE CASE FOR STARTING DEXTER WILLIAMS: Dexter Williams II has a long way to go to become a polished passer, but he has a skillset no other Indiana quarterback provides. Indiana should use the final two games to develop him. CLICK HERE