GameDay Prediction: Ignoring History Hard To Do With Indiana Football

Living in the past is frowned up, but facts are facts and Indiana is just 1-64 all-time against top-five teams. Saturday night in Happy Valley, the Hoosiers take on No. 4-ranked Penn State, and getting a win is a huge ask. The prediction? You can't ignore history, or the current eye test, either.

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Most of you already know that when you start in on that ''Same Ol' Indiana'' stuff, I'm first in line for giving you a scolding and a virtual slap with the back of my hand. And, of course, I'm right. If this current version of Indiana doesn't play well on a given Saturday, it has nothing to do with 2011 or 1997 or 1984.

Live in the present, live in the moment. I do that. You should too, but many of you don't.

I'm not immune to Indiana's woeful football history. I am born-and-raised Hoosier. And that diploma on the wall? It says Indiana, too. I've seen it all for going on five decades now.

That's why when we started this gig with Sports Illustrated in 2019, I was firmly convinced that Tom Allen was on the right path. The fact that Indiana won eight games that year didn't surprise me one bit. In fact, I predicted most of those wins and, to be honest, I thought they'd win one or two more. (See Michigan State in East Lansing and Tennessee in the Gator Bowl.)

I predicted 5-2 a year ago, and Allen's crew did me one better, finishing 6-1 in the regular season. This program is so much better than it used to be. This is not "Same Ol' Indiana.''

This year, however, has been a disappointment so far. Indiana is just 2-2, but all those people who have littered State Road 37 after jumping off the bandwagon quickly forget that those two losses are to No. 5 Iowa and No. 7 Cincinnati.

We don't do moral victories here. And we don't give passes for losing, but facts are facts. Iowa and Cincinnati are very good.

I thought the Hoosiers would be good too, but they've shown some flaws. There are some legitimate concerns, in all three phases.

Which brings us to Saturday night. Indiana is here in beautiful central Pennsylvania, and it's a gorgeous early October day for football. The Hoosiers will play Penn State under the lights in Beaver Stadium, and the Nittany Lions are just 4-0 and the fourth-ranked team in the country. Indiana will play in the national TV game on ABC for the first time ever, the very last Power 5 team to do that since the ABC Saturday night window was created 15 years ago. 

Another epic challenge.

The oddsmakers don't think it'll be close. Penn State is a 12.5-point favorite, and for good reason. They've got two WINS in their showdowns with ranked teams, beating Wisconsin and Auburn. They are at home, in front of 107,000 throaty fans who get very, very loud, especially in a night game when they've been drinking courage all day long. 

It's one of the toughest places to play in the country. And it's nearly impossible to win there. Indiana knows that all too well. They are 0-11 in their history at Happy Valley.

With that said, I stand by my statement that I've been making since the preseason. Indiana won't got 12-0 this season, but they are good enough to have a chance to win all 12 weeks. 

I think that's true this week, too. They beat Penn State a year ago, and played them tough the two years prior to that. The talent gap isn't massive, like it once was.

ESPN's Football Power Index says that Indiana has an 18.3 percent chance of winning. That's too low in my book, and I would at least double that. I'd say that Indiana has a 36.6 percent chance to win.

And you know what that means. I think, though they are capable, that this might be too big of an ask tonight. I do think Indiana quarterback Michael Penix will continue to improve, and he will play well. I think Indiana will move the ball, and they will score some points. 

What concerns me though, is that Indiana's defense hasn't been what we thought it would be. Neither are the special teams. They've given up a lot of big plays, given up a lot of third-down conversions when they should have gotten off the field. They aren't creating any turnovers either.

Indiana had 17 interceptions in eight games last year. This year, they have just ONE total in four games, and none from their corners and safeties.

Thats a talented secondary, but I really have to go with the eye test. Penn State, through four games, has looked very good. Indiana hasn't, not for 60 minutes. Penn State's veteran quarterback, Sean Clifford, has been far better than Penix so far this season.

The pick? Well, I do think 12.5 points is too many. I think both teams will score and I do think it will be a one-score game heading into the fourth quarter. I just think the setting might be too much. 

As I said before, I do think Indiana is very capable of winning. And certainly, it's good for business if they do. It's just a big ask.

I think Penn State closes it out late, and wins 34-24. I could be wrong, 36.6 percent wrong, but I think that's how it plays out.

Considering I am just 1-3 against the spread so far this season, this pick is probably good news for the Hoosiers. 

They might just shock the world.

Shock is the right word, considering Indiana is 1-64 all-time against top-five teams, with the only win coming over No. 3 Purdue was back in 1967. 

Maybe Saturday night will be different, but the current eye test — and 65 games worth of top-five history — tells me otherwise.

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• HOW TO WATCH: Here's everything you need to know on how to watch Saturday night's Indiana-Penn State game, including game time, TV, the latest on the point spread and so much more. CLICK HERE
• 3 THINGS TO SEE: Here are three things that Sports Illustrated Indiana publisher Tom Brew wants to see from Indiana on Saturday night when they take on No. 4 Penn State on national TV at Beaver Stadium. CLICK HERE
• CAM JONES UP FOR ANY CHALLENGE AT INDIANA: Indiana recruited Cam Jones on the offensive side of the ball, but once he arrived on campus, Tom Allen knew Jones would be a good addition to the Hoosiers' defense. CLICK HERE
• WHAT MICAH MCFADDEN AND CAM JONES SAID ON PODCAST: Indiana linebacker Micah McFadden brought along his running mate, fellow linebacker Cam Jones, for the Mike & Micah podcast at Yogi's Bar & Grill on Tuesday night. CLICK HERE
• D.J. MATTHEWS OUT FOR SEASON: Florida State transfer D.J. Matthews has been Indiana's best player the first three weeks of the season, but a torn ACL in his left knee during the Western Kentucky game on Saturday has ended his season. It's be a big blow for Indiana's receiving corps and special teams group. CLICK HERE