GameDay Prediction: Is the Mountain Too High to Climb for Indiana at Wisconsin?

It seems like the deck is stacked against Indiana as they travel to Madison to take on Wisconsin in a place where they haven't won since 2001.

MADISON, Wis. — This is been the greatest football season in a generation for Indiana, and the Hoosiers have had a lot of great things go their way during this 5-1 campaign. But the college football gods are conspiring against them this weekend, and they've got a difficult challenge against Wisconsin on Saturday. 

You come to me on GameDay mornings for the truth, of course, and I've delivered for you. In all six Indiana games in 2020, I've been EXACTLY RIGHT in telling you what was going to happen. I picked Indiana to win outright as an underdog against Penn State and Michigan, I picked blowout wins over Rutgers, Michigan State and Maryland, and I told you that they'd play Ohio State in defeat, and they did.

A perfect 6-0.

I made those calls with about a 90/10 head-to-heart ratio, and you've all been along for the ride all season to know that I saw Indiana as a team ready to turn the corner. And they haven't disappointed, even during this crazy year of coronavirus. It's been a pure pleasure.

Which brings us to Indiana at Wisconsin. And I have to tell you, I'm not feeling good about this. It seems like everything is conspiring against the Hoosiers, and it's all culminating into an odd moment Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium. 

(How to watch: CLICK HERE)

There are obvious reasons for my concern. Namely:

• NO PENIX: Losing quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to a second torn ACL injury was devastating for the Hoosiers, because he had been playing at a high level, leading the Big Ten in passing yards. Now the Hoosiers have to turn to Jack Tuttle, who's thrown 16 career passes, almost all of them in garbage time. That's a huge drop-off.
• NO REST: Only six Big Ten teams have played a full schedule through six weeks, and Indiana is one of them. Playing a conference-only takes its toll, but what's also hard is that Wisconsin will be the third straight team that Indiana has played who had a week off prior to the matchup. That really makes a difference, especially as you get late in the year.
• LESS PREPARATION: While Indiana was playing Maryland last weekend, Wisconsin was resting up and working on an early game plan for the Hoosiers. Paul Chryst and his staff have proven over the years that they are great game-planners. They've seen what Indiana is bringing to the table, and it's a guarantee that they are going to take away the run and force Tuttle to beat them through the air. Wisconsin's defense is very good and they are going to throw  the kitchen sink at Tuttle and Indiana's offensive line. And I have no idea what to expect from Tuttle in that situation. In this case, the fear of the unknown is exactly that. I fear the unknown with Tuttle.
• TURNOVER TROUBLES: Indiana's defense has lived off of turnovers this year, and the Hoosiers' 16 interceptions lead the nation. Outside of the Ohio State game, the Hoosiers have turned those picks into points. We watch Wisconsin's loss to Northwestern and see those five turnovers, but we also have to remember that the Badgers have had two weeks to fix all of that. I see the Badgers playing conservatively and pounding the Hoosiers with a run game and short passes. They're going to try to take turnovers out of the equation, and that could be a huge issue here.

So I think you can see where I'm going here. Even before Penix's injury was announced, Wisconsin was a 9.5-point favorite. The line peaked at 14.5 on the DraftKings site, and is now at 13 on game day. 

That's a heavy favorite. Indiana was a 21-point underdog at Ohio State and lost 42-35 thanks to a great second-half comeback led by Penix, who threw for 491 yards that day. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Ohio State had a 91 percent chance of winning that game, and I kept telling it was much less than that. I think the same thing here. Wisconsin has an 84.5 percent chance of winning. I'm not sure I'd feel that confident.

But when you break all this down like I did above, my head tells me that I have to go with Wisconsin here. I think Indiana will struggle to get turnovers, and I'll be stunned if Indiana can run for more than about 60 yards today.

And no disrespect intended to Jack Tuttle in anyway, but I have nothing to show me that he can throw the ball 50 times on that Wisconsin defense and have success all day. There is no resume, so I don't know what to expect. No one does, r eally.

My heart? You know that's a different story, of course. But in the prediction business, I have to go with my head and I'm taking Wisconsin to both win and cover. I'll take Wisconsin 37-20 today in Camp Randall.

And if you're wondering about my gambling friend Walter Ego, he's with me, too. He saw Penix's injury and took a chance on Sunday when the lines first came out. He's got many stacks on Wisconsin at minus-9.5. 

Walter is 17-6 on Big Ten games this season. He doesn't like the rest of the slate much this week, so he told me Saturday morning that he put a very small stack on Purdue (-1) over Nebraska and he took Ohio State minus-22.5 against Michigan State, figuring that they do want to make a statement, even with a depleted roster.

Tom Brew's perfect Indiana picks

To refresh your memory on my GameDay predictions this season, I am a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread this season. Let's review:

Week 1: Penn State at Indiana

• Point spread: Penn State by 6
• Tom's pick: Indiana 38, Penn State 31 PROOF
• Final score: Indiana 36, Penn State 35

Week 2: Indiana at Rutgers

• Point spread: Indiana by 12
• Tom's pick: Indiana 38, Rutgers 17 PROOF
• Final score: Indiana 37, Rutgers 21

Week 3: Michigan at Indiana

• Point spread: Michigan by 3.5
• Tom's pick: Indiana 31, Michigan 27 PROOF
• Final score: Indiana 38, Michigan 21

Week 4: Indiana at Michigan State

• Point spread: Indiana by 7.5
• Tom's pick: Indiana 34, Michigan State 17 PROOF
• Final score: Indiana 24, Michigan State 0 

Week 5: Indiana at Ohio State

• Point spread: Ohio State by 21
• Tom's pick: Ohio State 37, Indiana 31 PROOF 
• Final score: Ohio State 42, Indiana 35

Week 6: Maryland at Indiana

• Point spread: Indiana by 12
• Tom's pick: Indiana 41, Maryland 24 PROOF 
• Final score: Indiana 27, Maryland 11

Saturday morning closing lines 

Here are the latest lines in the Big Ten on DraftKings.com as of 8 a.m. Saturday;

• Indiana at Wisconsin (minus-13)
• Ohio State (minus-24) at Michigan State
• Penn State (minus-11.5) at Rutgers
• Purdue (minus-2) at Nebraska
• Iowa (minus 13-5) at Illinois.

Related links to Saturday's Big Ten action

• Here's all the summaries on those games and how to watch. CLICK HERE

• Here's how to watch the Indiana-Wisconsin game and all of the other Big Ten games this Saturday. CLICK HERE