Indiana Controls Destiny To Big Ten Title Game, Like Curt Cignetti Predicted

Curt Cignetti suggested the day he was introduced as Indiana’s football coach that the Hoosiers would be in the Big Ten championship game this season.

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti and Maryland coach Mike Locksley talk pregame at Memorial Stadium. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – When Curt Cignetti was introduced as Indiana’s new football coach, he joined the Big Ten Network set on the Lucas Oil Stadium field in Indianapolis. 

At the end of his interview, Cignetti made a prediction that likely came across as far-fetched to most, given Indiana’s 9-27 record over the previous three seasons.

“I figured I had to make this trip up here since we’ll be playing in this game next year,” Cignetti said Dec. 1, 2023.

Cignetti, of course, was referring to the Big Ten championship game, which is played at Lucas Oil Stadium on Dec. 7. Indiana won just three conference games from 2021-23, but Cignetti has led a historic turnaround in his first season. His preseason prophecy no longer seems like a long shot. 

No. 8 Indiana is 9-0 overall and 6-0 in conference play, putting it in a tie for first place in the Big Ten standings with No. 1 Oregon (9-0, 6-0). The Hoosiers and Ducks control their own destiny to the Big Ten title game. 

Although Indiana is still ranked behind No. 2 Ohio State and No. 6 Penn State, the Hoosiers benefitted from Ohio State’s 20-13 win at Penn State Saturday. That dropped the Nittany Lions to 7-1 in Big Ten play, identical to Ohio State, which lost 32-31 at Oregon on Oct. 12. That means if both Indiana and Oregon win out, they’ll face each other in the Big Ten championship. 

In their third season under coach Dan Lanning, who’s 31-5 at Oregon, the Ducks have a favorable schedule the rest of the way. It’s highly likely they’ll be favored in their final three games: at home against Maryland (4-4), at Wisconsin (5-4) and at home against Washington (5-4).

The road appears more difficult for the Hoosiers. It begins Saturday with a home game against Michigan, the defending national champion, which has taken a step back to 5-4 in its first season under coach Sherrone Moore. 

After a bye week, the biggest challenge comes on Nov. 23 at No. 2 Ohio State, a team Indiana hasn’t beaten since 1988. If the Hoosiers get past the Wolverines and Buckeyes, they’ll have a chance to go undefeated against Purdue (1-7) in the Old Oaken Bucket rivalry game. 

Indiana's three remaining opponents are also the ones Cignetti called out the day he was introduced as head coach. During a break in the Indiana men’s basketball game against Maryland at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Cignetti took the microphone.

“I’m super fired up about this opportunity. I’ve never taken a back seat to anybody and don’t plan on starting now,” Cignetti said. “Purdue sucks! But so does Michigan and Ohio State! Go IU!”

"Purdue sucks… so does Michigan and Ohio State"

Welcome to the Big Ten, Curt Cignetti

pic.twitter.com/EdgaJilNy7

— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 2, 2023

Cignetti gets his chance to back that up, starting Saturday against Michigan. ESPN’s College Football Power Index gives Indiana a 13.1% chance to win out, a 17.3% chance to win the Big Ten, an 83.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff, a 5.4% chance to win the national championship and a projected record of 11.3-1.0.

If Indiana were to lose to Ohio State, for example, the Big Ten title game would likely feature Ohio State and Oregon. The one-loss Buckeyes would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indiana and Penn State. But losing to Ohio State wouldn’t automatically eliminate Indiana from College Football Playoff contention, though the scenarios are a bit complicated.

In his first season at Indiana, Cignetti has already set several program records. Indiana is 9-0 for the first time ever, and a win Saturday would give the Hoosiers their first 10-win season in program history. Cignetti is also the first Division I head coach 8-0 or better in two straight seasons at different schools, James Madison and Indiana. 

Fan excitement around Indiana football might be at an all-time high, too, with four sellouts to end the season. Indiana hasn’t sold out Memorial Stadium four times in one season since 1969, when it sold out five times. This year’s run started Oct. 19 against Nebraska, the first sellout since 2021, and extends through the season finale against Purdue.

An Indiana fan holds up a head coach Curt Cignetti towel before the Michigan State game at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Fans are all-in on the Hoosiers now, but Cignetti had to drum up some of that before the season, like during his appearances on the Big Ten Network and at Assembly Hall.

“I've kind of had to speak a big game taking over a job like this because we had to wake some people up and create some excitement,” Cignetti said at Big Ten Media Days on July 25. “And after all, this is the entertainment business too.”

Related stories on Indiana football

• IT'S STILL A BIG DEAL TO BEAT ONE OF THE BIG TWO: Todd Golden opines that beating Michigan, regardless of the state of the programs, is still a big deal. CLICK HERE.

• CIGNETTI RADIO SHOW: Cignetti talked about how players leaving teams midseason to redshirt and transfer is becoming more common around the country, as well as quarterback Kurtis Rourke’s recovery from a thumb injury. CLICK HERE

• PREDICTIONS, 3 KEYS: Here are the three keys and a score prediction for Saturday's Indiana football game against Michigan. CLICK HERE.

• INDIANA CFP ANALYSIS: A look at the scenarios that are in front of Indiana after the Hoosiers were ranked 8th in the first set of College Football Playoff rankings. CLICK HERE.

• BOWL PROJECTIONS: The College Football Playoff is becoming a real possibility for Indiana after a 9-0 start. Here are bowl projections from various national analysts. CLICK HERE

• OPENING LINE: Here's the point spread and over/under for Indiana's home game against Michigan on Saturday, plus betting results from throughout the season. CLICK HERE