Indiana Football Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys For Charlotte

What do the Hoosiers need to do to prevail against the 49ers? Here are three keys to success and a score prediction for the game.

Indiana Hoosiers running back Ty Son Lawton (17) runs the ball for a touchdown in the first quarter against the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana coach Curt Cignetti bemoaned how fans left en masse at halftime of  the Hoosiers’ 31-7 victory over Florida International on Aug. 31.

What can surprise people who grew up in college football hotbeds around the country is how divorced much of the state of Indiana is from the obsession with the sport. Yes, Notre Dame is in South Bend, but its fanbase is national.

The rest of the state enjoys college football, but it isn’t a way of life the way it is in the SEC or elsewhere in the Big Ten. Speaking as a graduate of Ball State, someone who covered Indiana State for many years, and who has been around both Indiana and Purdue as a journalist, all four are basketball-first.

Not that football can’t draw support, but casual fans in Indiana want something to embrace before they show up in force.

Now that Indiana has given its fans some proof of quality with a 42-13 win over UCLA, I’m curious to see what the turnout is Saturday.

The opponent, Charlotte, isn’t going to move the needle, but the Hoosiers’ winning ways combined with a friendly noon kickoff means turnout should be decent. The weather will be hot, never easy to contend with at sun-drenched Memorial Stadium, but fans will be more tolerant of that to watch a winner.

Attendance at the first two games was 44,150 for FIU and 39,082 for a Friday night game against Western Illinois. It would be over-doing it to anticipate a sellout on Saturday, but it will be interesting to see if attendance tops the turnout for the FIU game.

Here’s some keys for Saturday’s game against Charlotte.

1. Don’t get lulled into complacency by Charlotte’s quarterback situation

Indiana has put enough credit in the bank with its defensive effort in three games, and with their general approach to games this shouldn’t be a problem, but it still bears mentioning.

Cignetti said before the Western Illinois game that the Hoosiers had to “fight human nature” to avoid the notion that an easy game was coming. This is a similar situation.

The Indiana head coach will likely remind the Hoosiers that Charlotte quarterback Trexler Ivey completed 11 of 12 passes for 142 yards and 2 touchdowns in Charlotte’s 27-26 come-from-behind victory over FCS Gardner-Webb last week after he replaced injured starter Deshawn Purdie, who had replaced Charlotte’s original starting quarterback Max Brown.

The coaching staff will also remind the Hoosiers that though Ivey started out as a third-string quarterback in 2024, he made five starts in the 2023 season. He had a high water mark of 277 passing yards in a win at Tulsa.

2. Run the ball mercilessly

When you look at Charlotte’s game log this season, one 49ers weakness stands out like a sore thumb.

In Charlotte’s two games against FBS competition – a 30-7 loss to James Madison and a 38-20 defeat at the hands of North Carolina – both the Dukes and the Tar Heels ran the ball down the 49ers’ throats.

JMU ran for 194 yards, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. North Carolina topped that. The Tar Heels rushed for 269 yards, averaged 6 yards per carry and scored 3 rushing touchdowns.

Indiana’s running attack has been stout. The Hoosiers have averaged 5.9 yards per carry with the four-headed monster backfield consisting of Ty Son Lawton, Justice Ellison, Kaelon Black and Elijah Green. Unless something changes in Charlotte’s defense, it behooves Indiana to feed that quartet the ball and let them eat.

3. Calibrate the nasty

Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Aiden Fisher (4) and defensive back D'Angelo Ponds (5) defend against UCLA Bruins wide receiver Rico Flores Jr. (1) in the first half at Rose Bowl. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

We love the nasty defense. Really, we do. UCLA’s offense seemed to go into a shell the longer the game went along at the Rose Bowl. It would be foolhardy to think Indiana’s hard-hitting ways didn’t have an effect.

Cignetti pledged that “we’re not going to change the way we play.” Would never have expected the Hoosiers to do that.

However, five penalties (four accepted) for either targeting, roughing the passer or unnecessary roughness have to be culled down. One can argue (we did) that some of the penalties shouldn’t have been called, but they were called and they would have hurt in a closer game.

Some of this is beyond Indiana’s control – the whims of the officiating crew play a role – but like a whistle-happy official in basketball or an umpire with a wide strike zone in baseball, a team has to adjust to how the game is being called.

Do that, and the flags become less frequent.

Score prediction

The predictions haven’t been too bad, but each week, a part of what Indiana does well wasn’t accounted for very well.

In Week 1, I underestimated how good Indiana’s defense could be.

In Week 2, I underestimated how ruthlessly Indiana would punish an over-matched Western Illinois team.

In Week 3, I underestimated how good Indiana’s offense would be in a road game. And, frankly, how far UCLA has to go to be competitive in the Big Ten.

I’m done underestimating the Hoosiers. The body of evidence suggests few weaknesses to worry about for Indiana at home against a Charlotte team that has been competitive but hasn’t defeated a FBS team yet. Indiana fully demonstrates its excellence in a 49-6 win over the 49ers.

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