GameDay Prediction: Struggling Hoosiers in Maryland, Still Searching For First Big Ten Win
COLLEGE PARK, Md. — Indiana has won three straight games against Maryland, and has averaged nearly 32 points a game in doing so. This was supposed to be another win this year, when things were looking good for the up-and-coming Hoosiers in the preseason.
But as we all know and Indiana coach Tom Allen even said — "no one expected this season to play out this way'' — times have changed as we've reached the end of October. Indiana's offense hasn't been great this year anyway, but now both of their veteran quarterbacks — Michael Penix Jr. (shoulder) and Jack Tuttle (foot) are banged up and not expected to play.
That means true freshman Donaven McCulley will likely get his first career start at quarterback. The lanky 6-foot-5, 200-pound 18-year-old has a ton of raw talent, and he's probably going to win a lot of games at quarterback during his time at Indiana.
I just have concerns if the winning can start today.
Both teams have lost three in a row, Indiana to Penn State, Michigan State and Ohio State, and Maryland to Iowa, Ohio State and Minnesota. That's all tough sledding for sure, and these two teams are pretty even right now, considering the injuries. Maryland is dealing with them too — Dontay Demas Jr., their best receiver — is out for the year.
Maryland opened as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday morning, but the line quickly ballooned to 5.5 points the Indiana quarterback news came out. It's settled in at 4.5 or 5 points on most sites now, and it's 4.5 on our SISportsbook,com site.
This game is hard for me to pick, for a variety of reasons. I do think Indiana's defense, a proud group, has something to prove after getting embarrassed last week in that 54-7 loss to Ohio State where they gave up touchdowns on the Buckeyes' first six possessions. I think they'll play well on Saturday, especially with cornerbacks Tiawan Mullen working hard to get back on the field. I think they will hold Maryland under 20 points.
The problem, though, is that I don't know if Indiana can score more than 20 themselves. They have struggled to run the ball all year. Starter Stephen Carr hasn't run for more than 57 yards yet in a Big Ten game. They need to run the ball today, because can be gashed in the running game. Minnesota took them for 326 yards last week.
But can the Hoosiers do that to take pressure off of McCulley and his passing skills? Tom Allen has hinted that there might be changes along the offensive line, and that could help because that group has struggled all year, not only in the run game but providing pass protection as well. Two injured quarterbacks says something about that.
Here's what I think happens. Indiana's defense plays well, but Indiana struggles to finish drives, which has also been an issue all year. Indiana's special teams, which haven't been very good either, give up a big play. The Hoosiers settle for field goals early — because they won't have a choice — and Charles Campbell might be the offensive player of the game.
I'm going with Maryland, 20-13.
I'll say right now that I have very little faith in the pick because the Terps have been turnover prone all year, too. If Indiana's defense can turn them over two or three times on their side of the field, it might be different. They did that all of last year, but they haven't been doing it this year,
If that changes today, this pick will look foolish and the Hoosiers will win. They certainly need it — in a big way. But I've just lost faith in that offensive line, and I'm just worried that it's too soon for McCulley.
