Game Day Prediction: Indiana Returns From Bye Week Looking to Upset Penn State

Coming off a bye week, Indiana football (3-5) takes on No. 15 Penn State (6-2) on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium. Can the Hoosiers upset the Nittany Lions?

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana pulled off a stunning upset during Penn State's most recent trip to Bloomington in 2020. Michael Penix Jr. rose to fame when he dove for the pylon to convert a two-point conversion, defeating the No. 8 Nittany Lions 36-35 in overtime.

"The thing you remember is guys found a way to finish the game," Indiana coach Tom Allen said on Monday. "Got off to a strong start, led most of the game, fell behind at the very end, and found a way to rally back, send it into overtime, have a historic play."

It remains one of the signature wins of Allen's tenure at Indiana, and with a 3-5 record in 2022, the Hoosiers look to accomplish a similar feat and snap a five-game losing streak on Saturday against No. 15 Penn State. 

"It's in the past," Allen said. "New team. New guys. New faces on both teams. Great opportunity for our team. Any time you have a chance to play a top team in the country, that's what you want to be able to do."

Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Demarcus Elliott (94) reacts after a defensive stop with defensive lineman James Head Jr. (6) and linebacker Aaron Casey (44) during the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The case for a win

The anticipated rainy and windy weather could make for a sloppy, low-scoring game, where the likelihood for turnovers increases. Indiana coach Tom Allen frequently emphasizes the team's defensive focus on generating takeaways, and the Hoosiers will need an interception or fumble in Penn State territory to stay in the game.

Special teams and field position is always important in games impacted by the weather, and Indiana has one of the most electric kick returners in the Big Ten in Jaylin Lucas. D.J. Matthews has been dealing with a hamstring injury for over a month, but he returned a punt for a touchdown last year and has been a threat in the past. 

The Penn State offensive line is dealing with a few injuries, so look for Indiana to try to confuse that unit with different pressures and blitzes. Quarterback Sean Clifford is coming off a three-interception game against Ohio State, and Allen said this week that forcing Clifford into mistakes will be key.

If the rain and heavy winds make it difficult to throw and catch the ball, Indiana's pass-heavy offense will be forced to run the ball more than usual. Indiana has the least-productive rushing attack in the Big Ten, but perhaps fresh legs coming off a bye week give the Hoosiers a boost against a Penn State defense that allowed 44 points last week. The Nittany Lions allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game in the Big Ten, and Michigan shredded them for 418 yards on the ground.

The case for a loss

Quarterback Connor Bazelak completed 24-of-42 passes for 210 yards and an interception in Indiana's loss to Rutgers in Week 8. Indiana coach Tom Allen said every position would be evaluated during the bye week, and his comments this week have led to uncertainty at the quarterback position.

If Allen and Bell were confident in Bazelak being their guy, they wouldn't hide their starting quarterback decision from the public. That doesn't automatically mean Indiana is switching to Jack Tuttle, who's transferring after the season, or Dexter Williams, who's never taken a snap in a college game. But Indiana is at least considering it.

"Some guys say, 'I like playing multiple guys, I like having that rotation to keep teams off balance throughout games.' As you've noticed, we haven't done that in the past. Don't expect to do that in the future," Allen said. "But obviously at this point in the season you're just trying to do everything you can do to help yourselves find a way to be sucessful on game day."

I think Indiana will stick with Bazelak on Saturday because starting Tuttle does not clearly improve the present, and it does nothing for future. Coaches have raved about Williams' potential, but making his first career start against a top-15 team is a challenging and risky ask. Allen doesn't like rotating quarterbacks, and Willams' inexperience, coupled with the rain and wind create an unfavorable debut opportunity. On the other hand, why not see if Williams can be Indiana's quarterback of the future?

Whoever ultimately starts at quarterback will have a difficult task against a talented Penn State defensive backfield, and none of the options convey much confidence in pulling off the upset. Cornerback Joey Porter Jr. projects as a first round draft pick, and he's tied with teammate Kalen King for the Big Ten lead with 11 pass breakups. Possible rainy and windy conditions make for long day for and Indiana offense that will be without leading receiver Cam Camper.

My prediction

During their five-game losing streak, the Hoosiers played Nebraska, Michigan, Maryland and Rutgers close, but crumbled in the fourth quarter.  

In a similar script, I think Penn State controls this game, 34-13.

Related stories on Indiana football:

• HOW TO WATCH IU-PENN STATE: Indiana football (3-5) hosts No. 15 Penn State (6-2) on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind. Here's how to watch, with game time and TV information, the latest on the point spread and three things to see from Indiana. CLICK HERE
• JAMES FRANKLIN PREVIEWS IU: Penn State football coach James Franklin brings the Nittany Lions to Bloomington, Ind. for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday at Memorial Stadium. Here's what he said about Indiana. CLICK HERE
• AARON CASEY STEPS IN FOR CAM JONES: When Indiana football's leading tackler and captain Cam Jones went down with a foot injury, linebacker Aaron Casey closed in on an opportunity to be a defensive force and an emerging leader who now leads the Hoosiers in total tackles. CLICK HERE
• WEEK 10 DEPTH AND INJURY CHART Heading into Indiana football's matchup with No. 16 Penn State on Saturday, check out a few injury notes to keep an eye on, as well as the Week 10 depth chart. CLICK HERE
• UNCERTAINTY AT QB: Indiana football coach Tom Allen and offensive coordinator Walt Bell are evaluating different options at quarterback heading into a Week 10 matchup against Penn State. CLICK HERE