Indiana Football Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys For Maryland

What do the Hoosiers need to do to prevail against the Terrapins? Here are three keys to success and a score prediction for Indiana's next game.

Western Illinois Leathernecks wide receiver Demari Davis (3) catches the ball while Indiana Hoosiers defensive back Shawn Asbury II (1) defends in the first quarter at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Not to splash cold water on Indiana’s 4-0 start, because there’s been little to suggest that it isn’t supported by a solid foundation of complimentary football. But if you’re seeking a cautionary tale, cast an eye toward Lincoln, Neb.

Last week, the buzz was reaching ear-worm levels surrounding the promising start that Nebraska was off to. The Cornhuskers had controlled all three of their games – including a 28-10 high-profile home win over Colorado in Week 2.

With a relatively friendly late-September and October schedule, there was talk of Nebraska rolling into its Oct. 19 game at Indiana unbeaten – perhaps as a battle of unbeaten teams. If the Huskers could navigate that game against the Hoosiers, it would have set up another potential matchup of unbeatens at Ohio State the following week.

When Nebraska earned a spot in the Top 25 prior to Week 3 it was their first appearance in the poll since 2019 – a happenstance well nigh inconceivable for Baby Boomers and Gen Xers who witnessed Nebraska win three national championships in the 1990s and two more in the early 1970s.

Nebraska football fans are a lot like Indiana basketball fans in that they’ve been chasing past glories for more than a decade now. Fans in the Cornhusker State were hoping this 3-0 start marked their long-sought return to national prominence.

Nebraska got a chance to show what it was all about when another ranked team – then-No. 24 Illinois – rolled into Nebraska’s Memorial Stadium for a Friday night prime-time clash with the then-No. 22-ranked Huskers.

With the bright lights on them, the Huskers couldn’t get the job done. Illinois battled gamely on the road and earned a 31-24 overtime victory – one in which Nebraska had a shambolic overtime possession that saw the Huskers trying to dig out of a 3rd-and-42 hole at one point.

And with that? The hype train exited Lincoln to find greener pastures elsewhere.

The point of bringing up Nebraska’s slip is to note that Indiana, which finds itself just outside the top 25 this week, has a similar kind of game in front of them.

Indiana hosts Maryland at noon ET on Saturday. The Hoosiers are favored. The Hoosiers have home-field advantage. And the Hoosiers are ahead of Maryland in quite a few statistical categories.

But, is Maryland worse than Illinois was in comparison to Nebraska? Is Maryland that much worse than Illinois outright? Not in my mind. Maryland is not going to contend for the Big Ten title, but they are a team to be respected. They are a team that can come to Bloomington and win.

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti has done a great job keeping Indiana hungry and focused. There’s no reason to believe he won’t keep the Hoosiers on the straight and narrow path for the Terps. He knows as well as anyone that what Illinois did to Nebraska can very easily be done by Maryland to Indiana if the Hoosiers don’t have their minds right.

Here’s some keys for Saturday’s game against Maryland.

1. Take away Tai Felton

Maryland Terrapins wide receiver Tai Felton (10) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Villanova Wildcats during the third quarter at SECU Stadium. / Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

The numbers Maryland wide receiver Tai Felton has posted are straight out of the old Tecmo Bowl Super Nintendo game.

Felton has 41 catches for 604 yards. That level of production is a good season for most receivers, and Felton has achieved that level of production in four games. He’s averaging 10.2 catches per game and a whopping 151 receiving yards per contest. Those are Heisman Trophy-like numbers if he can keep it up.

Felton isn’t a classic deep threat. The Terrapins feed the 6-foot-2 receiver shovel passes, screens and jet sweeps. He’s an all-around threat, and Maryland mixes up where he lines up on the field. They sometimes fake a hand-off or short pass to Felton to set up their running game.

Indiana has been excellent against defending the passing game; the Hoosiers have conceded just 124 passing yards per game. But the Hoosiers have not gone against anyone like Felton yet.

It will be fascinating to see how Indiana defends Felton. Cignetti is a big believer in his core principles, his coaches and his personnel. He doesn’t seem prone to gimmicks that deviate from the norm. Still, is Felton worth a spy or a double-team? A mix of different looks?

It will be a big test for Indiana cornerbacks D’Angelo Ponds and Jamier Johnson. Ponds, in particular, is considered a rising star. He’s going to get the chance to prove it Saturday.

2. Continue to avoid turnovers

Indiana's Justice Ellison (6) and Kurtis Rourke (9) celebrate Ellison's touchdown during the Indiana versus Charlotte football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This is not the most original “key,’’ but an important one, and an area in which Indiana has excelled in its four victories.

The Hoosiers are in a four-way tie for third nationally in turnover differential at plus-1.75 per game. Unlike those other three schools, the Hoosiers have not committed a turnover. Indiana has seven takeaways and no giveaways.

However, something to remember is one of the teams tied with Indiana in turnover differential is Maryland. (Illinois and Oklahoma are the other two schools.)

The Terrapins have forced 10 turnovers, tied for fourth-best in the country.

Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been rock solid in the ball security department, though there’s been at least a tiny bit of good fortune at play, too. He had two fumbles in the opener that he recovered himself, and he’s also had a couple of tipped balls fall just out of reach of opposing defenders.

Mostly, though, Rourke has kept Indiana on an even keel, and that will need to continue.

3. Be prepared for bad weather

For the first time this season, the weather could have an impact on the game.

Hurricane Helene has formed in the Gulf Of Mexico, and it is expected to make landfall in the Florida panhandle on Thursday.

The National Hurricane Center has predicted that Helene will come into range of Indiana late Friday or early Saturday, though it may not make it all the way to Bloomington. 

Either way, rain is in the forecast for Saturday according to weather.com. There’s a 70% chance of rain during the game. Wind could also be a factor as the forecast calls for winds above 10 miles per hour.

We all know what inclement weather does to a football game. The impact on special teams and passing can be very significant, to say nothing of ball security. 

While it would be interesting to see how waterproof the Indiana offense is, it’s an element both teams could do without, but if it does happen? Indiana will need to be prepared.

Score prediction

Indiana's Zach Horton (44) runs after the catch during the first half of the Indiana versus Florida International football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

It’s hard to find fault with much of anything Indiana has done on the gridiron thus far. The offense is humming along and balanced. The defense has had few vulnerabilities. Special teams have almost been flawless.

Maryland will be the best team the Hoosiers have faced. Admittedly, it’s a low bar to clear with the weak nonconference schedule and struggling UCLA on the slate so far.

Assuming bad weather doesn’t morph the game out of recognition, I think this game will remain competitive into the second half. But I also believe in what I’ve seen from Indiana so far. The Hoosiers’ players believe in what they’re doing, and what they’re doing has produced results. That’s the mix you want.

I think Indiana takes this one 38-24 as its metronomic offensive efficiency carries the day in the second half.

Related stories on Indiana football

• MEET THE TERRAPINS: A deep dive into what Maryland brings to the table for its game at Indiana on Saturday. CLICK HERE.

• CIGNETTI FAMILIAR WITH MARYLAND QB: Curt Cignetti tried to recruit Billy Edwards Jr. when he was head coach at James Madison. Now Cignetti has to find a way to stop the Big Ten’s leading passer. CLICK HERE

• FERRELL GAINING PROMINENCE: Amare Ferrell has grown into his new starting role as a rover with the Hoosiers. CLICK HERE.

• DONAVEN MCCULLEY UPDATE: Donaven McCulley’s production through four games has been limited after a Week 1 injury, but Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said Monday that the 6-foot-5 receiver is getting closer. CLICK HERE

• OPENING LINE: Indiana will face Big Ten opponents the rest of the way, and it has opened as a favorite against Maryland. CLICK HERE

• INDIANA CLOSES IN ON TOP 25: Indiana isn't there yet, but the Hoosiers are within close range of the Top 25. CLICK HERE.