GameDay Prediction: Here's What to Expect in Indiana's Game With Idaho on Saturday Night

Indiana opens its home football schedule on Saturday night, with a nonconference game against Idaho. It's the first time in nearly two years that Memorial Stadium will be packed with fans, and that's a wonderful thing. Here's how the game will play out.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – It's going to be a sun-splashed Saturday in Bloomington, a perfect day for the home opener for Indiana's football team. There's going to be a nice crowd at Memorial Stadium, even though several fans were seen jumping off the bandwagon last weekend after that ugly loss at Iowa.

The Hoosiers get fans in the stands for the first time in 657 days, after playing a full season in empty stadiums in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, we're back to normal – sort of – and thousands of fans will enjoy a day of tailgating and football watching.

Welcome back.

And how will this game play out? 

When it comes to gameday predictions on Indiana, you know where to turn for that great advice. You remember that I started 6-0 against the spread last year for Indiana, but people have been quick to point out that I was wildly off-base last weekend in picking Indiana to beat Iowa in a showdown of ranked teams. That's a tough prediction gone wrong when the Hawkeyes put a 34-6 beating on the Hoosiers.

Yeah, I'll admit I was surprised that Indiana was a no-show last weekend, but I wasn't alone. Tom Allen was surprised too, and was quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and others. 

"I wasn't surprised that we lost, but I was really surprised that we didn't execute better. That's on me, I'm the quarterback,'' Penix said during his Mike & Micah podcast on Tuesday night at Yogi's Bar & Grill in Bloomington. "I thought we were prepared, but we just didn't play well. We didn't make plays, but we've learned from it and we're moving on. I still think we can be an explosive offense, and we'll start to show that this weekend against Idaho.'' 

A few fans have also pointed out that I've now missed my pick in three straight Hoosiers games dating back to last year, missing the Wisconsin win and the Ole Miss loss in the bowl game. That is correct.

But I'm getting back on a roll this week. That's a promise.

There wasn't a line on the game on the sites like DraftKings or FanDuel, but our new SIsportsbook.com site has a line. It's Indiana, favored by 30.5 points.

I'm taking Indiana in this game – and by a lot more than that. Keeping the faith? Absolutely.

Unlike all those people who jumped off the bandwagon last week, I'm still believing that this is a very good Indiana team. I do think last week was an outlier, and this has been a good week of practice for the Hoosiers. They've learned from the loss and flushed it, and they've cleaned up a few things that were bothersome.

I think we'll see a much better performance this week, especially on the offensive end. I see a lot of big things happening Saturday night. I think Stephen Carr, the running back transfer from USC, will have his first 100-yard game, and I do think Penix will be much better throwing the ball. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him hit a lot of big plays, too.

Idaho is just an FCS team that failed miserably in its foray into big-time college football. Look at some of these results against quality FBS programs in the past decade:

• Aug. 31, 2019: Penn State 79, Idaho 7
• Nov. 17, 2018: Florida 63, Idaho 10
• Sept. 1, 2018: Fresno State 79, Idaho 13
• Oct. 21, 2017: Missouri 68, Idaho 21
• Sept. 17, 2016: Washington State 56, Idaho 6
• Sept. 10, 2016: Washington 59, Idaho 14
• Sept. 12, 2015: USC 59, Idaho 9
• Nov. 23, 2013: Florida State 80, Idaho 14
• Oct. 26, 2013: Ole Miss 59, Idaho 14
• Oct. 5, 2013: Fresno State 61, Idaho 14
• Sept. 21, 2013: Washington State 42, Idaho 0
• Sept. 15, 2012: LSU 63, Idaho 14  

Don't be swayed in any way by Idaho's 68-0 victory over Simon Fraser in Week 1. That's a small Canadian school in British Columbia that probably couldn't beat some of Indiana's best high school teams.

So I do think that Indiana will roll in this game as well. They were embarrassed last week at Iowa, and they're ready to take it out on someone else.  

I'm taking Indiana in a rout, winning 48-6 and easily covering the 30.5-point number. It's time to get back on track – all of us.

Related stories on Indiana football

• HOW TO WATCH INDIANA'S GAME: Indiana opens its home schedule on Saturday night, so here's how to watch, with gametime, TV channel, announcers and more. CLICK HERE
• THREE THINGS TO SEE: Here are three things that HoosiersNow.com publisher Tom Brew wants to see from Indiana during Saturday night's home opener with Idaho. CLICK HERE
• BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS: Ohio State remains No. 1 in the Big Ten power rankings, but there was a lot of shuffling right behind them after several interesting and impressive crossover victories. CLICK HERE
• HOW TO WATCH ALL 14 LEAGUE GAMES: The Big Ten schedule is full this weekend, with 14 nonconference games, including two top-12 matchups, something that hasn't happened in nearly 30 years. CLICK HERE
• INDIANA O-LINE LOOKING TO IMPROVE: Indiana offensive line coach Darren Hiller addressed the media Wednesday, and he expects better play from the Hoosiers' O-line come Saturday. CLICK HERE
• WATCH SECOND MIKE & MICAH PODCAST: Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. threw three interceptions for the first time in his career in the 34-6 loss to Iowa, and he talked about what went wrong during Tuesday night's Mike & Micah podcast live from Yogi's Bar & Grill in Bloomington. CLICK HERE
• HOOSIERS OUT OF TOP 25: Indiana was ranked No. 17 in the Associated Press preseason poll but fell out of the rankings quickly after a 34-6 loss to Iowa. Here are this week's top-25 rankings. CLICK HERE