Game Day Prediction: Michigan Overpowers Indiana Up Front

Indiana football is a massive underdog in its homecoming game against No. 4 Michigan on Saturday at Noon ET at Memorial Stadium. Do the Hoosiers have any chance?

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Big Ten East play is here, and Indiana's road moving forward appears treacherous as ever. 

Indiana lost by 14 at Nebraska last week, which represented a major missed opportunity to for the Hoosiers to boost their bowl-eligibility chances. A full East division slate followed by the Old Oaken Bucket game against Purdue to end the season means wins will be hard to come by the rest of the way.

With the No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (5-0) coming to town for Saturday's Noon ET kickoff, Indiana, in all likelihood, will move to .500 at after a 3-0 start to the season. 

Michigan is a 22.5-point favorite in this matchup, following a 13-point win at Iowa in a game where the outcome was never really in question. The Wolverines imposed their will to the tune of a 13-0 halftime lead that stretched to 20-0 by the end of the third quarter.

J.J. McCarthy beat Cade McNamara for the starting quarterback position at Michigan despite McNamara leading the Wolverines to a College Football Playoff berth last season. Blake Corum stepped in for 1,300-yard rusher Hassan Haskins, and he's been one of the nation's top running backs in 2022. Averaging 6.6 yards per carry, Corum leads the country with 10 rushing touchdowns, and he's fourth among FBS backs with 611 yards.

That Blake Corum hesi >>> pic.twitter.com/U2mGTQtxdE

— Trevor Sikkema (@TampaBayTre) October 1, 2022

On the other sideline, Indiana has been plagued by severe inconsistencies from its fast-paced offense. Quarterback Connor Bazelak's connection with receivers like Cam Camper and D.J. Matthews was deadly down the stretch in wins over Illinois and Western Kentucky. But with Camper and Matthews out last week at Nebraska, the Hoosiers had seven three-and-out drives.

Indiana's flaws in its first three wins were evident. At the time, the idea that a brand new offense would steadily corrects its mistakes seemed reasonable. Along with a new quarterback, Indiana completely revamped its running back and wide receiver rooms, and it was always going to take time to gel. 

But after two consecutive losses, the same blunders from Week 1 are holding the Hoosiers back. Indiana still hasn't scored a first quarter touchdown, and they've trailed at halftime in four of five games. The Hoosiers rallied for a 21-21 tie at halftime last week, but Nebraska's defense held Indiana scoreless in the second half.

My prediction

This game will be decided in the trenches, and Michigan has the advantage on both sides. Michigan's defensive front is more powerful than any past opponent, which is a major concern as Indiana has struggled to give Bazelak a clean pocket and generate a running game on a consistent basis. Indiana is still working to find its best five lineman after a season-ending injury to veteran right tackle, Matthew Bedford.

3rd & 5.

Need a big play. Mazi Smith provides. pic.twitter.com/Ij0gRO5o4U

— Due# (@JDue51) September 25, 2022

As for the Michigan offensive line, this group returned to full strength last week at Iowa after a few early-season injuries. Indicative of any Jim Harbaugh offense is a consistent running game, powered by and experienced offensive line that can control the pace. The Hoosier defense allows the third-most rushing yards per game at 142.6, and they're up against one of the best rushing offenses in college football this week. 

I see Michigan's defensive front bringing consistent pressure on Bazelak while the Wolverine offensive line steadily wears down Indiana defense. I'm picking Michigan to win this one 45-13.

Related stories on Indiana football:

• AJ BARNER, JAYLIN WILLIAMS JOIN PODCAST: Watch Episode 6 of the Hoosier Roundtable Podcast featuring Indiana tight end AJ Barner and defensive back Jaylin Williams, who discuss the loss to Nebraska and preview what's to come with Michigan for Indiana's homecoming. Read the transcript summary, or watch the full episode attached inside. CLICK HERE
• INDIANA WEEK 6 DEPTH CHART, INJURY NOTES: Indiana (3-2) plays No. 4 Michigan (5-0) on Saturday in a Noon ET kickoff from Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind. Here's Indiana's Week 6 depth chart, as well as a few injury notes. CLICK HERE
• MICHIGAN PLAYERS TO WATCH, HARBAUGH'S COMMENTS: Indiana football (3-2) hosts No. 4 Michigan (5-0) on Saturday at Noon ET. Here's what coach Jim Harbaugh said about this Week 6 matchup, as well as key players to watch in this game. CLICK HERE
• INDIANA TO INCREASE JAYLIN LUCAS' ROLE Jaylin Lucas' electric 34-yard run against Nebraska confirmed the hype he generated in fall camp. And now, Indiana coaches Tom Allen, Walt Bell and Craig Johnson are making it a priority to get Lucas the ball moving forward. CLICK HERE