Indiana Is A Big Ten Football Contender; How Do Contending Schedules Compare?

The Hoosiers are 3-0 in the Big Ten and have a legitimate chance for a conference title run. How does Indiana’s schedule stack up with its rivals?

Todd Golden | Oct 9, 2024

Indiana's Amare Ferrell (25) and Jamier Johnson (9) celebrate a stop during the Indiana versus Maryland football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – It’s Oct. 9 as this story is written, so all of the too-early provisos and disclaimers apply when it comes to predicting conference title contenders. But Indiana football is right in the thick of the battle for Big Ten supremacy.

Even on Oct. 9, “Big Ten supremacy” and “Indiana football” are rarely used in the same sentence. To wit, at this point last season, the Hoosiers were already 0-2 in conference play. In fact, the Hoosiers have had at least two conference losses by Oct. 9 in every applicable season since 2016. (The 2020 season started after Oct. 9 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.)

So these are heady times for the No. 18 Hoosiers, who have first place in the Big Ten to themselves by virtue of playing one more game than any of the other unbeaten teams.

However, the Big Ten title mission is just beginning for Indiana.

With the expanded, 18-team Big Ten, along with the elimination of divisions, the Big Ten race is wide open. Several contenders will not play one another. Indiana does not have Big Ten unbeatens Penn State and Oregon on its schedule. Nor do the Hoosiers face one-loss Big Ten teams Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers or Wisconsin.

Conference schedules have a wide variety in degree of difficulty. For example, Indiana’s three Big Ten opponents are 0-4 in their other Big Ten games so far.

So who is a contender and who isn’t? Right now, 11 of the 18 Big Ten schools have not lost or lost once in Big Ten play.

That’s a large pool of teams and you have to figure that two conference losses will be too much to overcome for a share of the conference title, and odds are against a two-loss team making the conference title game in December, too.

So say goodbye to Big Ten winless teams Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue and UCLA. Michigan State and Minnesota have both absorbed a pair of losses too.

Surprisingly, the Golden Gophers sent Southern California to the two-loss ranks with a 24-17 win in Minneapolis Saturday. That plunged the-then No. 11 Trojans straight out of the AP Top 25. USC has fallen in both of its trips east of the Rocky Mountains. Though likely out of Big Ten contention, USC is still a dangerous foe.

That leaves 10 teams Indiana is fighting with. Here’s a breakdown of how their schedules play out and how competitive they may be in the Big Ten race.

Indiana (3-0 Big Ten)

Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Miles Cross (19) celebrates against the UCLA Bruins n the first half at Rose Bowl. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Remaining schedule: Nebraska, Oct. 19; Washington, Oct. 26; at Michigan State, Nov. 2; Michigan, Nov. 9; at Ohio State, Nov. 23, Purdue Nov. 30.

Combined records of remaining Big Ten opponents: 22-12 overall, 9-7 Big Ten.

Analysis: Four home games remain on the Indiana schedule which is about as optimal as you could ask. The schedule is much tougher than it was in the first half, though. Purdue is the only team left which could be considered a sure-win. Nebraska and Washington have much tougher defenses than Indiana has seen to-date. Then there’s Michigan, a team with talent that has been underwhelming based on the standard it has set in recent seasons. It won’t be easy for Indiana, but the Hoosiers have the kind of schedule needed to remain in contention … and they just might.

Ohio State (2-0)

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (2) celebrates a touchdown during the second half of the NCAA football game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State won 35-7. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Remaining schedule: at Oregon, Oct. 12; Nebraska, Oct. 26; at Penn State, Nov. 2; Purdue, Nov. 9; Northwestern at Wrigley Field, Nov. 16; Indiana, Nov. 23; Michigan, Nov. 30.

Combined records of remaining Big Ten opponents: 28-11, 11-6 Big Ten.

Analysis: No team included in this analysis faces teams with more Big Ten wins than the Buckeyes. Saturday’s game at Oregon will have a major impact on both teams’ fate, the College Football Playoff and the nature of the Big Ten race. It doesn’t stop there. A road trip at Penn State is dicey. Home games to finish the season against Indiana and Michigan will be challenging. The Buckeyes are ranked No. 2 nationally. If they make it through this gauntlet unscathed, they should be an unquestioned No. 1 team in the nation.

Oregon (2-0)

Oregon Ducks running back Jordan James (20) breaks away from Michigan State Spartans defenders during the first half at Autzen Stadium. / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Remaining schedule: Ohio State, Oct. 12; at Purdue, Oct. 18; Illinois, Oct. 26; at Michigan, Nov. 2; Maryland, Nov. 9; at Wisconsin, Nov. 16; Washington, Nov. 30.

Combined records of remaining Big Ten opponents: 24-13 overall, 8-8 Big Ten.

Analysis: As mentioned above, the game against Ohio State has massive ramifications. The Ducks are fortunate to be playing it in Eugene. A road trip to Michigan on Nov. 2 will be tricky, and the rivalry game against Washington to finish the season will be tough. But the Ducks could easily be unbeaten at the end of the Big Ten road.

Penn State (2-0)

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) looks to throw a pass during a warmup prior to the game against the UCLA Bruins at Beaver Stadium. / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Remaining schedule: at USC, Oct. 12; at Wisconsin, Oct. 26; Ohio State, Nov. 2; Washington, Nov. 9; at Purdue, Nov. 16; at Minnesota, Nov. 23; Maryland, Nov. 30.

Combined records of remaining Big Ten opponents: 22-15 overall, 7-10 Big Ten.

Analysis: The Big Ten opponent record looks favorable, but looks can be deceiving. The Nittany Lions have a difficult trip out west to USC on Saturday, as well as a difficult home game against Ohio State. If they split those two games, they have a legitimate chance to be in the Big Ten title game as the rest of their schedule is favorable.

Nebraska (2-1)

Nebraska Cornhuskers wide receiver Jacory Barney Jr (17) celebrates after a pass against the UTEP Miners during the first quarter at Memorial Stadium. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Remaining schedule: at Indiana, Oct. 19; at Ohio State, Oct. 26; UCLA, Nov. 2; at USC, Nov. 16; Wisconsin, Nov. 23; at Iowa, Nov. 29.

Combined records of remaining Big Ten opponents: 21-10 overall, 8-7 Big Ten.

Analysis: The first of the one-loss Big Ten contenders. The Cornhuskers don’t have an easy road. Consecutive road games at Indiana and Ohio State will test whether Nebraska is a contender or pretender. Later, trips to USC and Iowa will do the same. Nebraska would have to run the table to remain in Big Ten contention … and that seems unlikely.

Michigan (2-1)

Michigan Wolverines tight end Colston Loveland (18) runs the ball first half against the Arkansas State Red Wolves at Michigan Stadium. / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Remaining schedule: at Illinois, Oct. 19; Michigan State, Oct. 26; Oregon, Nov. 2; at Indiana, Nov. 9; Northwestern, Nov. 23; at Ohio State, Nov. 30.

Combined records of remaining Big Ten opponents: 27-6, 9-5 Big Ten.

Analysis: Michigan’s 27-17 loss at Washington Saturday really put the Wolverines in a bad spot. They have no margin for error with a difficult schedule to navigate. Road games at Illinois, Indiana and Ohio State are daunting. Oregon also comes to Ann Arbor. Michigan failed the test of protecting the Big House against an elite team when No. 1 Texas walked away with an easy win in September. Odds are stacked against the Wolverines to make a third-straight appearance in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game.

Washington (2-1)

Washington Huskies running back Jonah Coleman (1) rushes against the Michigan Wolverines during the first quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Remaining schedule: at Iowa, Oct. 12; at Indiana, Oct. 26; USC, Nov. 2; at Penn State, Nov. 9; UCLA, Nov. 15; at Oregon, Nov. 30.

Combined records of remaining Big Ten opponents: 23-8 overall, 9-5 Big Ten.

Analysis: Like Michigan, Washington will have a hard time staying in the race after a 21-18 loss at Rutgers on Sept. 27. The road schedule alone – Iowa, Indiana, Penn State and Oregon – likely knocks the Huskies out of contention.

Illinois (1-1)

Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Xavier Scott (14) and teammates celebrate after a 30-9 victory over the Central Michigan Chippewas at Memorial Stadium. / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Remaining schedule: Purdue, Oct. 12; Michigan, Oct. 19; at Oregon, Oct. 26; Minnesota, Nov. 2; Michigan State, Nov. 16; at Rutgers, Nov. 23; Northwestern at Wrigley Field, Nov. 30.

Combined records of remaining Big Ten opponents: 22-16 overall, 7-10 Big Ten.

Analysis: The No. 23 Fighting Illini have largely passed the eye test. The loss at Penn State Saturday was competitive which is a good sign. The schedule isn’t as rugged as others, but the Illini would have to find a way to win at both Oregon and Rutgers to stay in the Big Ten title fight. Not a probability.

Rutgers (1-1)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) celebrates after a touchdown during the second half against the Howard Bison at SHI Stadium. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Remaining schedule: Wisconsin, Oct. 12; UCLA, Oct. 19; at USC, Oct. 25; Minnesota, Oct. 9; at Maryland, Nov. 16; Illinois, Nov. 23; at Michigan State, Nov. 30.

Combined records of remaining Big Ten opponents: 20-17 overall, 5-13 Big Ten.

Analysis: The Scarlet Knights are intriguing. A one-touchdown loss at Nebraska took away margin for error, but Rutgers gets all but one of its toughest foes at home. If Rutgers can pull a surprise and beat USC in the L.A. Coliseum on Oct. 25? The Scarlet Knights would have a schedule that could help them make a legitimate run.

Iowa (1-1)

Iowa’s Jay Higgins (34) lines up against Iowa State during the Cy-Hawk game Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. / Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Remaining schedule: Washington, Oct, 12; at Michigan State, Oct. 19; Northwestern, Oct. 26; Wisconsin, Nov. 2; at UCLA, Nov. 8; at Maryland, Nov. 23; Nebraska, Nov. 29.

Combined records of remaining Big Ten opponents: 21-17 overall, 6-12 Big Ten.

Analysis: Iowa’s toughest game is out of the way – a trip to Ohio State that the Hawkeyes lost 35-7 – but the remaining road games are favorable. The home schedule is tougher but manageable. The Hawkeyes’ erratic offense is always a wild card, but would Iowa be the underdog in any of its remaining games? It might not be, so Iowa is very much in the hunt.

Wisconsin (1-1)

Wisconsin Badgers wide receiver Vinny Anthony II (8) carries the ball against Southern California Trojans cornerback Greedy Vance Jr. (21) in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Remaining schedule: at Rutgers, Oct. 12; at Northwestern, Oct. 19; Penn State, Oct. 26; at Iowa, Nov. 2; Oregon, Nov. 16; at Nebraska, Nov. 23; Minnesota, Nov. 29

Combined records of remaining Big Ten opponents: 27-10 overall, 9-7 Big Ten.

Analysis: The Badgers have not looked impressive aside from a 52-6 win against a poor Purdue team at home. If Iowa might be favored in all of its remaining games, the Badgers might not be favored in any of their remaining road games. Home games against Penn State and Oregon are both dicey too. Wisconsin would need a major turnaround in form to stay in contention.

Tiebreakers

Here's how the Big Ten tiebreakers work. The Big Ten announced a revised tiebreaker procedure in August.

If two teams are tied ...

1. If two teams are tied for the No. 1 position in the standings, both teams will participate in the championship game and the winner of the game between the two teams shall be the first-place team. If the two teams tied for the No. 1 position did not play, move to step A.3 below to determine the first-place team.

2. If two teams are tied for the No. 2 position in the standings, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative. If the two teams did not play, move to next step in tiebreaker.

3. The records of the two tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.

4. The records of the two tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.

5. The records of the two tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents:

(a) In the event of an unbalanced schedule (i.e., less than nine conference games are played), the records of the two tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents, regardless of how many conference opponents each team played. If winning percentage is equal for all conference opponents, move to next step in tiebreaker.

6. The representative will be chosen by the by the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.

7. Random draw among the tied teams conducted by Commissioner or designee.

If three or more teams are tied ...

After the head-to-head competition among the tied teams, if a tiebreaker step produces standings with a clear No. 1 team by itself among the tied teams, that team is selected for the championship game and the remaining teams still in contention revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker procedures (e.g., if there are three teams, the No. 1 team is in the championship game and the other two teams go to the first step of the two-team tiebreaker procedures; if there are four teams, the No. 1 team is in the 2 championship game and the other three teams go to the first step of the three-team tiebreaker procedures, etc.).

If a tiebreaker step produces results with two teams tied for No. 1, they are both selected for the championship game. To decide the ranking of the two teams, they will progress through the two-team tiebreaker procedures.

If a tiebreaker step produces results with two teams tied for a position other than No. 1, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative. If the two teams did not play, move to two-team tiebreaker above. If three or more teams remain tied after any step, move to next step in tiebreaker with remaining tied teams.

If a tiebreaker step produces results with one team being eliminated from proceeding to the next step in the tiebreaker process, the team that is eliminated shall not be pulled back into the tiebreaker for any future step(s).

If all teams involved in the tie are tied after any step, all teams will continue to the next step in the tiebreaker procedures.

1. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games among the tied teams:

(a) If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other, but one team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated all other teams in the tie is removed from the tiebreaker, and the remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker process (i.e., two team or three or more team tie).

(b) If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other and no team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, move to the next step in tiebreaker.

2. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie.

3. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings in order of finish:

4. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents:

(a) In the event of an unbalanced schedule (i.e., less than nine conference games are played), the records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents, regardless of how many conference opponents each team played. If winning percentage is equal for all conference opponents, move to next step in tiebreaker.

5. The representative will be chosen by the by the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.

6. Random draw among the tied teams conducted by Commissioner or designee.