Jack’s Take: 3 Biggest Questions For Indiana-Notre Dame College Football Playoff Game

Three notable factors in Indiana’s playoff game at Notre Dame will be how the Hoosiers’ offensive line protects Kurtis Rourke, how Indiana’s top-ranked rush defense fares against a potent Notre Dame run game, and which team wins the turnover battle.

Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) and the Hoosiers against Ohio State at Ohio Stadium. / Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The Indiana-Notre Dame College Football Playoff game is unique in many ways.

The 8 p.m. ET kickoff Friday in South Bend, Ind., marks the first game in the new 12-team playoff format. It’s the first playoff game played on campus, rather than a neutral site. It’s the only first-round matchup between in-state schools, and they haven’t played since 1991. And many of the matchups put one team’s biggest strengths against the other’s.

The Hoosiers and Fighting Irish enter Friday’s game with identical 11-1 records, though the losses came in far different settings. They’re led by coaches who have signed long-term extensions in recent weeks, with Curt Cignetti leading a historic turnaround at Indiana and Marcus Freeman one of the sport’s youngest rising stars at Notre Dame.

Those are just a few reasons to get excited about Friday’s game. ESPN favors Notre Dame by seven points and gives the Fighting Irish a 70.4% chance of victory. Here are the three biggest questions.

Can Indiana’s offensive line handle Notre Dame?

Offensive line play was one of the most drastic improvements Indiana made from the last several seasons to its first under Cignetti. Through the first nine games of the 2024 season, they allowed just seven sacks and often dominated opposing defensive lines in the run game. By the end of the regular season, the Hoosiers offensive line ranked 37th nationally in pass blocking and 11th in run blocking, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s a significant leap from ranking 103rd and 62nd, respectively, in those categories last season, and it’s a major reason for Indiana’s record-setting season.

But when the bar was raised against its top two opponents – Michigan and Ohio State – Indiana’s pass protection and run game faltered. Ohio State sacked Rourke five times, and the Hoosiers generated just 83 rushing yards on 41 attempts, or two yards per carry. Cignetti attributed much of that to crowd noise that forced the Hoosiers to use a silent count for the first time this year and allowed Ohio State to jump the snap, though there were physical breakdowns, too. The only time Indiana was less productive in the run game was the previous game against Michigan, when it rushed for 40 yards on 28 attempts, or just 1.4 yards per carry. The Wolverines sacked Rourke four times in that game, the second most Indiana allowed all season.

Ohio State's Jack Sawyer (33) sacks Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) at Ohio Stadium. / Samantha Madar/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Michigan and Ohio State have several future NFL defensive linemen, and so does Notre Dame. Defensive tackle Howard Cross III is back from injury and has been a problem for interior offensive linemen when healthy, with four sacks and six tackles for loss in nine games. Next to him is Notre Dame’s leader in sacks and tackles for loss, Rylie Mills, listed at 6-foot-5 and 295 pounds. 

Indiana has a distinct advantage at quarterback in passing, and Kurtis Rourke ranks third nationally in quarterback rating. It’s also had a formidable run game several times throughout the season. Indiana should be able to move the ball on Notre Dame. But if it can’t protect Rourke or sustain a running game – two issues in the Ohio State loss – that goes out the window. Indiana didn’t face its first deficit until game nine, and building an early lead will be key against an inferior Notre Dame passing attack. That starts up front.

Can Indiana limit Notre Dame’s run game enough?

This is the biggest strength-versus-strength matchup as Indiana brings the nation’s top-ranked run defense to South Bend. The Irish rank second nationally with 6.3 yards per carry and 10th with 224.8 rushing yards per game, led by the running back duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. But a wrinkle Indiana has not faced this season is the rushing ability of Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard, who’s fifth among quarterbacks with 5.8 yards per carry and tied for sixth with 14 rushing touchdowns. 

“We put in new installs with spying the quarterback or just running past to just navigate him and give him trouble escaping the pocket,” Indiana linebacker Jailin Walker said. “We just know he’s a great quarterback, so we have a lot of plays built to stop his effectiveness, and it’s working and we’re ready.”

Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines said Indiana can’t overcommit to stopping Leonard, because that would put the rest of the defense in jeopardy. But he wants the Hoosiers to leave a mark on Leonard in the pocket, or when he takes off.

“He can run some and he probably will, and he'll get a couple yards,” Haines said. “But he'll also get a couple hits from the Hoosiers.”

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard (13) runs past the USC defense at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Back to the original question for the Hoosiers, which is whether they can limit Notre Dame’s run game, because as Haines mentioned, they won’t completely shut it down. Why is that so important? Look at Notre Dame’s only loss of the season, 16-14 at home against Northern Illinois. Notre Dame rushed for just 123 yards, its second-fewest total of the season. Because the run game wasn’t working, it finished with a season-low 28 carries. Its 4.4 yards per carry ranks 10th out of 12 games. 

Sure, that game was played way back on Sept. 7, and it’s possible Notre Dame has remedied those issues. The Irish also won’t overlook Indiana like it did Northern Illinois, given the stakes of a College Football Playoff game. But even as Notre Dame blew teams out for most of the season – with an average scoring margin of 26.2, behind only Indiana’s nation-high 28.7 margin – it wasn’t because of a potent passing attack with Leonard.

That makes it imperative for Indiana to limit Notre Dame’s run game. What would constitute enough? Instead of looking at the final rushing yardage total in the box score, focus on the situations. Indiana making stops on first and second down is crucial, because it would put Notre Dame into likely passing situations on third and long. That is a weakness in Leonard’s game, and it may be the best opportunity for Indiana to intercept him. To make a comparison, Rourke ranks second nationally with 9.9 yards per attempt, and Leonard is 82nd with 7.1. Notre Dame’s chances of winning this game decrease if Leonard is put in frequent third-and-long situations and forced to beat Indiana with his arm.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Indiana and Notre Dame are two of the nation’s best in this category. On a per-game basis, Notre Dame ranks second with a plus-1.3 average turnover margin. Indiana is fifth at plus-1.1. That’s a result of offensive skill position players taking care of the ball, and both defenses being opportunistic when the other team makes mistakes.

Rourke has thrown just four interceptions all year, while the Indiana defense has a combined 14 interceptions by seven players. Two of Rourke’s interceptions, plus a fumble by running back Kaelon Black, came against Maryland, but Indiana’s defense came up with stops after all three turnovers. That fumble was also rare, as Indiana has lost just three fumbles all year, compared to nine by its opponents. 

Indiana's Amare Ferrell (25) celebrates with Shawn Asbury II (1) and Josh Sanguinetti (19) after an interception against UCLA at the Rose Bowl. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Notre Dame is similar in that respect. Leonard has thrown five interceptions, and the Irish defense has 17 interceptions by seven players. Notre Dame has recovered 11 fumbles, including eight in its last five games, as well as eight interceptions.

Notre Dame has won or tied the turnover margin in every game except for its loss to Northern Illinois, when Leonard threw two interceptions and the Irish defense didn’t force any. The Maryland game was the only time Indiana had a negative turnover margin all year, and it still managed to win by 14 points. For two teams used to winning the turnover battle, the one that loses it Friday will be in unfamiliar territory.

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