Predictions And 3 Keys For Indiana’s College Football Playoff Game At Notre Dame

A berth in the Sugar Bowl quarter final is on the line as Indiana and Notre Dame begin the 12-team College Football Playoff era.

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) passes the ball while Purdue Boilermakers defensive back Antonio Stevens (11) defends in the first half at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – By now, we all know Indiana’s College Football Playoff appearance is an unprecedented landmark in the Hoosiers’ football history.

Indiana’s 2024 football bloom happily coincides with the dawn of the 12-team playoff. If the 2023 four-team format was still in place, the Hoosiers would be bowling instead.

Historically, if you retro-fit today’s 12-team format to past seasons, there’s only two other instances in which Indiana might have been in a mythical 12-team format of the past – 1945 and 1967.

What would those College Football Playoff fields looked like? Just for fun, here’s how it would have been. We’ll use the 1945 AP poll and the 1967 UPI (coaches) poll to set the fields.

In 1945, Indiana won the Western Conference (now Big Ten) and would have been one of the top-four conference champions based on the final Associated Press poll released at the end of the regular season.

Indiana would have been the No. 2 seed and received a bye into the quarterfinals. Alabama (SEC), Oklahoma State (MVC) and Texas (SWC) would have had the other byes.

The first-round games would have been: 5 Army-12 Ohio State, 6 Navy-11 USC (PCC champ), 7 Michigan-10 Notre Dame, 8 Saint Mary’s (which no longer sponsors football)-9 Pennsylvania (Ivy League was major at the time).

The 1945 Hoosiers would have played the Michigan-Notre Dame winner, presumably at the Rose Bowl. Of course, this was right after the conclusion of World War II, so these scenarios really aren’t plausible given the times.

In 1967, we have to use the UPI coaches poll because the AP poll through most of the 1960s was just a Top 10 poll. The final UPI poll was also released before the bowl games. That nonsensical policy was changed shortly afterward.

Indiana was not one of the top four rated conference champions in 1967, so the byes would have gone to USC (Pac-8 champ), Tennessee (SEC champ), Oklahoma (Big Eight champ) and Wyoming (WAC champ).

However, Indiana was the fifth-best conference champ, so the 1967 Hoosiers are in the field and would have been anyway based on ranking. The first round pairings would have been: 5 Notre Dame-12 Syracuse, 6 Indiana-11 Penn State, 7 Alabama-10 UCLA, 8 Oregon State-9 Purdue.

That means the 1967 Hoosiers would have hosted a home game at then-new-ish Memorial Stadium against then-independent Penn State. The Nittany Lions’ best known player in 1967 was Ted Kwalick, who later played nine seasons in the NFL, mainly for the San Francisco 49ers.

If the 1967 Hoosiers won that mythical game, they would have faced No. 3-seeded Oklahoma. With the Orange Bowl (where the Big 8 champ went) a semifinal site, perhaps it would be at the Cotton Bowl or whatever the first-round bowl games would have been back then – the Fiesta and Peach Bowls didn’t exist. The Sooners featured future Heisman Trophy winner Steve Owens.

None of this ever happened, but what if’s can be fun, no?

Here are this week’s three keys and a prediction for the Notre Dame College Football Playoff game:

1. Pass Protection Has To Help Kurtis Rourke Calibrate His Game

Indiana Hoosiers offensive lineman Mike Katic (56) celebrates a touchdown from Indiana Hoosiers Omar Cooper Jr. (3) during the second quarter against the Washington Huskies at Memorial Stadium. / Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

Pass protection has been a recurring theme in Indiana’s last four games. Notre Dame has 30 sacks, not a massive total, but not an insignificant sum, either.

Protecting quarterback Kurtis Rourke matters for the obvious reason of avoiding long down-and-distance situations and to avoid wear-and-tear on him.

However, it would also help Rourke calibrate his game. Rourke is patient in the pocket, sometimes to his detriment when he takes a hit, but often to his credit as he’s good at waiting for a receiver to come open.

Rourke rarely rushes a throw, and he can’t be put into that situation against a Notre Dame secondary that is very opportunistic and ranks third nationally against the pass. Give Rourke proper time and he’ll dissect any defense, but it’s a tough balance both the offensive line and Rourke himself have to attain.

2. Indiana Defense Has To Make Notre Dame Two-Dimensional

Purdue Boilermakers running back Devin Mockobee (45) runs the ball while Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Aiden Fisher (4) and defensive lineman Lanell Carr Jr. (41) defends in the second half at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

This runs counter to the normal thinking for a game. Typically, you want to make a team one-dimensional to take away a strength.

However, Notre Dame is one-dimensional by design. They run the ball 10 more times per game than they throw it, and their rushing attack is potent at 224.8 yards per game. The Fighting Irish are not a bad passing team by any stretch, but they’re not as efficient, nor as comfortable, as the Hoosiers are in using their pass attack.

The idea is to take Notre Dame out of its comfort zone. The Fighting Irish want to run the ball – for good reason as they average 4.8 yards per carry. Take them out of their running attack and see how comfortable they are throwing the ball against an Indiana defense that ranks ninth nationally against the pass at 174 yards allowed per game.

3. Nicolas Radicic Could Be A Big Advantage

Indiana Hoosiers place kicker Nicolas Radicic (39) celebrates his field goal with teammates in the second quarter against the Michigan Wolverines at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

In a game filled with strength vs. strength matchups, the one disparity is in the kicking games.

Nicolas Radicic has been metronomic for Indiana. He’s made all 69 of his extra points and is 9 of 10 on field goals. Notre Dame kickers Mitch Jeter and Zac Yoakam have made their extra points, but they are just 8 of 17 on field goals.

This is going to be a close game, and the disparity in the kicking game could be huge for the Hoosiers. Radicic did miss his one kick in cold conditions against Purdue, but he’s built up the trust level to make a kick if Indiana needs one. Notre Dame can’t claim the same.

Prediction

Indiana's Ty Son Lawton (17) celebrates a touchdown during the Indiana versus Purdue football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This game will be so fascinating in its clash of strengths vs. strengths. It’s going to be very close, and neither team would surprise me as the winner.

I’ll offer up two scenarios with the same score margin. Indiana trails by a touchdown very late in the game, but drives for the game-tying or game-winning score in the final minute. Seizing the moment, Curt Cignetti elects to go for two. Kurtis Rourke completes a pass to Miles Cross for the successful two-point conversion and a dramatic 22-21 Indiana victory.

An alternate version that takes the kicking games into account: Radicic boots the game-winner at the horn to give Indiana a 24-23 triumph.

Hey, if I’m going to make a score prediction, I might well make it dramatic, right?

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