Predictions And 3 Keys For Indiana’s Old Oaken Bucket Showdown With Purdue

No. 10 Indiana will try to protect its College Football Playoff status against the struggling Boilermakers.

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) drops to throw during the first quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. / Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The last time the Old Oaken Bucket game had the kind of ramifications it will have when it kicks off at 7 p.m. ET Saturday was in 2000.

On that occasion, it was Purdue that was chasing history. Purdue needed a win over the Hoosiers at Ross-Ade Stadium to clinch a Rose Bowl bid. Purdue rolled up 510 yards of total offense en route to a 41-13 victory over Indiana that sent the Boilermakers to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl.

Indiana has lived the same moment. In 1967, Indiana had to beat Purdue at home to clinch a Rose Bowl bid. The Hoosiers earned a 19-14 victory to clinch its only Rose Bowl berth in school history.

Indiana is on the cusp of history again – and like the 1967 and 2000 games for the respective home teams – it can achieve glory in front of its home fans. It is possible, though unlikely, Indiana could be playing for a berth in the Big Ten championship game. It is a certainty that Indiana will be playing to protect its place in the College Football Playoff.

History is on the line. The home teams have delivered in this series before. The Hoosiers will hope to again.

Here are this week’s three keys and a prediction for the Purdue game:

1. Shore Up The Pass Protection

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end JT Tuimoloau (44) sacks Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) in the second half at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024 in Columbus, Ohio. / Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

An obvious issue last week against Ohio State, but it’s become a pattern that has to be snuffed out before Indiana plays in the postseason.

Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been sacked 12 times in the last three games. Purdue does not present the same threat as Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State, but the Boilermakers are not incapable of bringing heat. Kyrdan Jenkins and Will Heidt are among the Big Ten’s sack leaders.

It will be interesting to see if Indiana alters its play-calling to help the pass protection – or whether the coaches think that’s necessary against a lesser opponent. One thing Purdue won’t be able to do as well as Michigan and Ohio State is cover Indiana’s targets on the Hoosiers’ RPO plays. That alone might open things up and keep Rourke better protected.

2. Don’t Underestimate The Cold Weather

You know the Progressive Insurance ads where people turn into their parents? There’s one featuring weather-obsessed people, so at risk of becoming like them, the cold that will descend on Memorial Stadium on Saturday night is concerning. Forecasts call for temperatures to be in the 20s at game time.

Indiana has not played in a cold weather game this season. It’s conceivable that some of the players on the roster have never played in the cold.

Anything can be fought through, but passing can be an issue in the cold. The ball is harder. Grip can be an issue. Curt Cignetti was nonplussed when asked about the effect of the cold on Rourke’s still-recovering thumb injury, but it’s understandable to wonder.

I don’t think the game plan needs to be altered – we’re not talking about the Ice Bowl here – but it will be interesting to see how Indiana’s passing game does in cold weather.

3. Don’t Let Purdue Get Any Early Hope

Purdue Boilermakers running back Devin Mockobee (45) celebrates a touchdown during the second half against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ross-Ade Stadium. / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Among other things, Purdue has been horrific in the first halves of its games. The Boilermakers have scored a grand total of 53 points in the first half through 11 games. Purdue has only scored 13 points in the first quarter.

While Purdue has been outscored in every period it’s played, the Boilermakers have been much more productive in the second half of games. Purdue has scored 51 and 79 points in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Purdue has mounted solid second half comebacks on the road against Illinois and Michigan State.

Holding Purdue in the first half plays to one of Indiana’s strengths. The Hoosiers have been uncommonly good at not allowing fast starts by their opponents. Indiana has only given up 13 points in the first quarter all season – 10 of those were given up at Michigan State.

In the first half, Indiana has given up 89 points.

Prediction

Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Marcus Burris Jr. (92) and defensive lineman Daniel Ndukwe (91) celebrate after a blocked punt against the Maryland Terrapins during the second half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Indiana can’t afford to mess around with this game. A convincing victory is needed to quell any doubt from the College Football Playoff committee. Anything less than a two-touchdown victory is going to send the wrong message to committee members who put the Hoosiers on the edge of the field in their latest rankings.

On top of that? Indiana hasn’t won the Old Oaken Bucket since 2019. Indiana hasn’t lost four in a row or more in the series since the 2002-06 period, and the Hoosiers don’t want to start now.

I think Indiana will be ready for this one. There’s nothing to suggest preparation has been any different in the wake of a loss than it has been after 10 wins. Purdue will be desperate too – this is the Boilermakers’ bowl game in a bitterly disappointing season – but Indiana is a better team and it has a mission to fulfill.

Indiana wins 48-0 and wins the Old Oaken Bucket on home turf for the first time since 2016.

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