Predictions And 3 Keys For No. 13 Indiana’s Game At Michigan State

No. 13 Indiana heads to Michigan State as the Hoosiers try to stay unbeaten in Big Ten play.

Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Mikail Kamara (6) gestures after sacking the Northwestern Wildcats quarterback during the first half at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium. / David Banks-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – National reports, such as an X post by CBS Sports reporter Brandon Marcello on Wednesday, suggest that Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke could start against Michigan State on Saturday.

Whether it’s true or not, Indiana has been an efficient passing team this season regardless of who the quarterback has been. As the No. 13 Hoosiers travel for a 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff at Spartan Stadium, that’s not good news for the host Spartans.

Michigan State has had a wide variance in form in the 2024 season. It reflects both playing a tough schedule – Michigan State has played Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa and Michigan already – and inconsistent performance by the Spartans.

The one thing that has remained consistent is that when the Spartans face a good quarterback, they tend to struggle, even in some of their wins.

In their four losses, opposing quarterbacks completed at least 61.8% accuracy against the Spartans. Even in a Michigan State 27-24 victory, Maryland’s Billy Edwards Jr. completed 76.5% of his passes.

Indiana is the third-most efficient passing team in the nation. The Hoosiers only trail Army and Navy in this department – and the service academies very rarely throw the ball compared to Indiana. The pass attempts of the Midshipmen (56) and Black Knights (95) combined doesn’t match Indiana’s total (221).

So whether Rourke or Tayven Jackson plays on Saturday, Indiana will have a big advantage. Michigan State has to find a way to mitigate the Hoosiers’ strength, something no team has yet been able to accomplish.

Here are three more keys and a prediction for the Michigan State game:

1. Get Michigan State Off The Field

Michigan State's Kay'ron Lynch-Adams runs for a gain against Iowa in the second quarter on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With a two-pronged running attack led by Kay’ron Adams (459 yards) and Nate Carter (412 yards), to say nothing of the running ability of quarterback Aidan Chiles (172 yards), the Spartans are able to keep the ball. Michigan State is second in the Big Ten and 21st nationally in time of possession at 31:48 per game.

Indiana merely has to fall back on one of its own strengths to limit the Spartans’ ball control.. The Hoosiers are fourth in the Big Ten and 27th nationally in third-down defense. Opponents only convert 33% of their third-down conversions against the Hoosiers. This trend will have to continue to keep the Spartans from playing keep-away from Indiana’s offense.

2. Get Zach Horton Involved In Pass Attack

Indiana's Zach Horton (44) makes the catch during the Indiana versus Maryland football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana tight end Zach Horton has been an integral part of Indiana’s offensive attack. His blocking is considered a key reason for Indiana’s rushing success.

He has been involved in the passing attack – Horton has 15 catches for 124 yards and two TD catches – but he’s only twice reached the four-catch threshold in a game.

By now, we’ve learned that Indiana will bob-and-weave to change their tendencies game-to-game. Last week, Indiana abandoned its running back-by-committee approach and let Justice Ellison carry the load.

Perhaps Horton getting more targets is the next evolution? There’s precedent. In 2023 at James Madison, Horton had 17 of his 27 catches in the final five games of the season.

3. Don’t Get Rattled By The Crowd

Michigan State heads out of the tunnel before the game against Iowa on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana has only played two road games, and neither venue was a frothing pit of fan-fueled passion.

The Rose Bowl is so vast it swallows quite a bit of home-field advantage for UCLA – and Indiana had a sizable number of fans there anyway. The opposite dynamic was at work in the October trip to Northwestern’s small temporary stadium beside Lake Michigan. Once again, there was a good turnout from Indiana fans in Evanston.

Spartan Stadium will be different. There will likely be plenty of Indiana fans in East Lansing, but the percentage of fans rooting against the Hoosiers versus previous road games will be much higher in the 75,005-capacity stadium.

It will be loud, so Indiana’s players will have to deal with that dynamic for the first time. The team has been practicing with simulated noise in practice, but it’s not the same as game day.

It will be a good dress rehearsal for when the Hoosiers travel to Ohio State on Nov. 23.

Prediction

Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Marcus Burris Jr. (92) celebrates a turnover during the third quarter against the Washington Huskies at Memorial Stadium. / Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

My gut is telling me this game is going to be closer than Indiana’s recent games have been.

It’s a road game – a true road atmosphere for the first time this season for the Hoosiers – and that comes with its usual challenges. Michigan State is battle-tested by its schedule in a way Indiana has not been.

On the other hand, Indiana has met every challenge in 2024. And though Michigan State has faced a tough gauntlet of Big Ten opponents, it wasn’t very competitive against either the Buckeyes or the Ducks. Even in the 32-20 win against Iowa, Michigan State had to settle for six field goals. To do so again won’t likely cut it against Indiana’s offense.

We’ll go with a 28-13 victory for the Hoosiers. Indiana at 9-0? Something none of us have ever experienced before.

Related stories on Indiana football

• MEET THE OPPONENT: Michigan State is next for Indiana football. Find out about the Spartans. CLICK HERE.

• BOSTAD COACHES UP THE LINE: Offensive line coach Bob Bostad has melded the Indiana offensive line into a force. CLICK HERE.

• INDIANA IN THE POLLS: TOO HIGH, TOO LOW OR JUST RIGHT? The Hoosiers are 13th in the AP football poll. Are they where they should be? CLICK HERE.

• PONDS GETS NATIONAL AWARD: Indiana cornerback D'Angelo Ponds got a major national honor on Tuesday. CLICK HERE.

• BOWL PROJECTIONS: Where might Indiana be headed once bowl season begins? CLICK HERE.

• CIGNETTI KEEPS TURNOVERS, FUMBLES UNDER CONTROL: Indiana has been disciplined in these areas and commitment to fundamentals keeps it that way. CLICK HERE.

• CIGNETTI MONDAY PRESS CONFERENCE: What Curt Cignetti said as the Hoosiers prepare to play Michigan State on Saturday. CLICK HERE.

• REMINDER TO SMELL THE ROSES: There is such a thing as being too close to a subject to understand how it's being perceived by others. One of Hoosiers On SI's writers was reminded of that on Saturday. CLICK HERE.