Predictions And 3 Keys For No. 5 Indiana’s Game At No. 2 Ohio State

No. 5 Indiana has its toughest task yet as it tries to stay unbeaten in the Buckeyes’ house.

Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. celebrates his touchdown with teammates in the first quarter against the Michigan Wolverines at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – It’s finally here. The big one. The game that everyone has circled on their calendars.

No more wondering about strength of schedule. No more worrying about whether No. 5 Indiana has proven itself. Saturday’s noon ET game at Ohio Stadium will make Indiana’s season, or, it could possibly break it.

The reward is obviously enormous. A victory, and Indiana proves itself as a worthy national championship contender and puts it on a near-certain path to the Big Ten championship game, where even greater rewards – a possible College Football Playoff bye and maybe the overall No. 1 seed – could be up for grabs.

The consequence of a loss? Well, that depends on the nature of it. A close loss shouldn’t hurt the Hoosiers too badly. It would cost them a few spots in the playoff rankings, but not enough to see them fall out. A bad loss could confirm the feelings of critics who say that Indiana’s 10-0 record has been built on the foundation of a weak schedule.

Whatever happens, win or lose, this Indiana season has been remarkable. A win will only enhance that notion. A loss won’t diminish it.

Here are this week’s three keys and a prediction for the Ohio State game:

1. Stuff The Ohio State Running Game

Ohio State Buckeyes running back Quinshon Judkins (1) sheds Northwestern Wildcats defensive back Damon Walters (21) as he run during the first half of the NCAA football game at Wrigley Field in Chicago on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Understandably, much has been made about the loss of Ohio State center Seth McLaughlin. Ohio State will be playing without two of their five offensive line starters against the Hoosiers. It will be a challenge for the Buckeyes.

While it is certainly possible that Indiana can take advantage of the situation by unleashing its excellent pass rush, stopping Ohio State’s running game is a bigger deal. The ripple effect would benefit the Hoosiers.

Ohio State has an elite duo in Quinshon Judkins (723 rushing yards, 6 yards per carry) and TreVeyon Henderson (662 yards, 7.4 yards per carry). They can move the sticks on their own, and their presence makes Ohio State’s passing game that much easier for the Buckeyes to implement.

Stop the running game and it opens up lines of attack for Indiana’s pass rush. Indiana has done this against nearly all of its opponents, so there’s no reason to stop now.

Indiana is perfectly capable of pulling this off – the Hoosiers are the top-ranked defense in the nation at 72.2 yards against.

2. Indiana Needs To Revive Its Running Game

Indiana Hoosiers running back Ty Son Lawton (17) runs with the ball while Michigan Wolverines defensive back Makari Paige (7) defends in the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The Hoosiers have averaged 4.7 yards per carry in the 2024 season, but the Hoosiers have been well short of that mark lately. Washington limited Indiana to 3.6 yards per carry. Michigan State limited Indiana to 3.8 yards, and Michigan locked down the Hoosiers to the tune of just 1.4 yards per carry. Part of the drop can be attributed to an increase in quarterback sacks, but Indiana’s runners have been held down recently, too.

 In the last two games, no Indiana running back has rushed for more than 55 yards. Justice Ellison (32 and 17 yards, Ellison was hurt against Michigan) and Ty Son Lawton (19 and 55) have been ordinary.

Indiana’s RPO game becomes important here. The R in RPO is run, and the Hoosiers have to use the run out of those plays to keep Ohio State honest.

It won’t be easy for the Hoosiers to pull this off. Not far behind the Hoosiers in the NCAA’s run defense rankings are the Buckeyes, who rank fourth in rushing defense at 90.7 yards per game.

3. Tighten Up In The Red Zone

Indiana is in the top 50 in all but three major NCAA statistical categories. Indiana is 51st in time of possession, but that’s partly due to driving on short fields and some short series. Indiana 62nd on fourth down conversions, but that’s not a big sample size.

What does stick out is that Indiana ranks 87th in red zone defense. Teams have scored 86.4% of the time when they’ve reached the Indiana red zone, including 12 touchdowns in 22 chances. By contrast, Ohio State ranks second in red zone defense at 52.2%, having only allowed seven touchdowns in 23 opportunities.

For Indiana to have a chance on the road, it has to find a way, at the very least, to hold the Buckeyes to field goals. The Buckeyes have demonstrated the ability to do this when they’ve defended a short field, so the Hoosiers have to match their stinginess.

Of course, the best method is to keep Ohio State away from the red zone entirely.

Prediction

Michigan Wolverines running back Kalel Mullings (20) runs with the ball while Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Jailin Walker (2) and defensive back Terry Jones Jr. (12) defend in the second half at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

There’s plenty to worry about from Indiana’s perspective. The offense has dropped off in the last three games and faces its toughest defense yet. Ohio State has looked ordinary at times (a four-point home win against Nebraska sticks out), but tends to rise up when called upon. Certainly, from a pure athlete point of view, Ohio State has recruited at a different level than Indiana. Will that speed, size and strength be too much for Indiana this time?

Ohio State is very good. Yet Indiana has risen to every challenge it’s faced in 2024. You get no sense being around the Hoosiers that this moment is too big for them. There’s something about these Hoosiers that makes you believe they can overcome just about anything.

Indiana has been picked as the winner in this space all season … and we’re not going to change now. Indiana edges it 24-21 with a late Nicolas Radicic field goal.

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