Predictions And 3 Keys For No. 8 Indiana’s Game Against Michigan

No. 8 Indiana tries to keep its historic unbeaten run going as the Wolverines visit Memorial Stadium.

Indiana's Kurtis Rourke throws a pass during the third quarter in the game against Michigan State on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – One of the tools we have at our disposal in this business are the game notes produced by the schools. You also have them if you’re so inclined.

Scads of details and fun facts are in the game notes. Indiana does a good job with their notes, and like many schools, they include a list of game-by-game statistical trends..

When I looked at No. 8 Indiana’s game-by-game statistical trends, it revealed some interesting tidbits. Here’s a few that struck a chord:

• First downs have been declining: Indiana reached a peak of 29 first downs against Charlotte in September. Since then, the Hoosiers have not increased their first-down total in a single game since. The order: Maryland (28), Northwestern (27), Nebraska (24), Washington (20) and Michigan State (20).

There are reasons for this that go beyond the opposition getting stops. Drives on short fields produce fewer first downs. Rapid scoring drives reduce first downs. All of those contribute to this trend for the Hoosiers.

• Offensive yardage is down in the last two games, but not production: Through the Nebraska game, Indiana did not have a game where it had less than 414 total yards. In the last two games, Indiana’s total yardage total was 312 and 385, respectively.

There’s a caveat that works in the Hoosiers’ favor. Though Indiana only averaged 4.4 yards per play against Washington, the Hoosiers pushed their average to 6.3 yards per play against Michigan State.

• Indiana keeps the ball in the fourth quarter: Once the Hoosiers get the lead, they keep it by playing keep-away from their opponent. In Indiana’s last three games, the Hoosiers had the ball for 10:10, 10:02 and 10:29 in the fourth quarter.

This is due to two factors. The first is that the opposition has to open up its passing game to try to get back into the contest, which leaves them vulnerable to Indiana’s pass rush. The second is that Indiana is very good at running the ball to kill the clock.

• Indiana opponents can’t run to move the sticks: Last week, Michigan State had just four first downs via running plays, a Big Ten-best for Indiana’s defense and a big reason why the Spartans rushed for minus-36 yards. Only once this season has an Indiana opponent rushed for more than six first downs on the ground (Nebraska, with eight).

• Tackles for loss come from everywhere: No Indiana player has had a tackle-for-loss in every game, but 19 different Hoosiers have had a TFL during the season.

Some of the numbers are unsurprising. Mikail Kamara had a TFL in all but one contest. Then there’s D’Angelo Ponds’ current five-game streak with a TFL. That’s impressive for a cornerback. Perhaps most surprising is that leading tackler Aiden Fisher (84 tackles) has only recorded 3.5 tackles for a loss.

Those are just a few things that jumped out to me as interesting.

Here are this week’s three keys and a prediction for the Michigan game:

1. Hold Colston Loveland To Three Catches Or Less

Michigan tight end Colston Loveland (18) makes a catch against Oregon defensive back Kobe Savage (5) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan’s Colston Loveland is the best tight end Indiana has faced this season – and it’s not particularly close. With 49 catches for 523 yards, he is 18 catches ahead of the next-best tight end Indiana has faced, Washington’s Keleki Latu.

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti understands the problems Loveland can pose.

“You've got to be aware of him, for sure, down the field and on screens, various things, because when you've got size and speed like that, you can create a personnel mismatch. So he's an excellent football player,” Cignetti said.

In his last four games, Loveland has had at least 6 catches in a game, including 7 catches for 112 yards against Oregon last week.

A good goal for Indiana would be to limit Loveland to three catches or less, which would match his season low.

2. Improve Red Zone Defense

When you look at Indiana’s national rankings on both sides of the ball, you see almost nothing but superlatives. The Hoosiers are ranked in the top 10 nationally in nine different categories and are in the top 25 in three more.

The one category that sticks out is Indiana’s red zone defense. It’s not terrible – the Hoosiers have an 84.2% rate in red zone defense, which ranks 65th nationally - but it’s not up to the high standards set elsewhere.

Indiana doesn’t rate below 50th in any other major statistical category. No one plays football for stat rankings, but obviously, if Indiana can get some red zone stops, it keeps the opposition off the scoreboard. So stats or not, it’s a good thing.

3. Get Miles Cross Going

Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Miles Cross (19) is tackled by Washington Huskies cornerback Ephesians Prysock (7) during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. / Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

In the last two games, Miles Cross has just one catch – a 16-yard reception against Washington on Oct. 26. In the five games previous to that, he had 23 receptions.

Nothing to really fret about. Indiana has so many gifted receivers that nearly all of them have had a stretch similar to Cross.

Before his six-catch game against Michigan State last week, Ke’Shawn Williams had two catches in the previous two games. Elijah Sarratt has had two games with just 12 receiving yards. Omar Cooper Jr. has had one catch in each of the last three games – all of them for over 20 yards, mind you.

This offense doesn’t rely on any one player, so while Cross hasn’t had his number called recently, it doesn’t mean it won’t be on Saturday.

Prediction

Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Aiden Fisher (4) and Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Lanell Carr Jr. (41) celebrate after a defensive play against the Florida International Panthers during the second half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Indiana’s 47-point answer after Michigan State scored the first 10 points Saturday in East Lansing is hard to shake from my mind. It was such an emphatic response on both sides of the ball. In many ways, I think the final three quarters at Spartan Stadium are the finest football Indiana has played this season.

The Hoosiers might have a tougher time moving the ball against a solid Michigan defense, but Indiana’s defense is playing at a very high level right now. Add the fact that Michigan hasn’t found itself offensively, and I think the Hoosiers will smell blood and take advantage.

Indiana wins 31-13 and then gets two weeks off to prepare for a huge game at Ohio State on Nov. 23.

Related stories on Indiana football

• GROUP OF FIVE TRANSFERS SHINE: Indiana's transfers from the Group Of Five level have brought the Hoosiers success. CLICK HERE.

• WHAT CIGNETTI SAID: Curt Cignetti spoke to the media on Monday ahead of No. 8 Indiana's game against Michigan Saturday. CLICK HERE.

• AP TOP 25 POLL: Indiana football moved up five spots to No. 8 in the latest AP Top 25 Poll, following Saturday's 47-10 win at Michigan State. CLICK HERE

• OPENING LINE: Here's the point spread and over/under for Indiana's home game against Michigan on Saturday, plus betting results from throughout the season. CLICK HERE