Preseason Indiana Football Predictions From A Historic Season: How Did We Do?

How did Hoosiers On SI writers do as far as their preseason thoughts were concerned for Indiana football?

Todd Golden, Jack Ankony | 12 Hours Ago

Indiana Head Coach Curt Cignetti during the Indiana versus Washington football game at Memorial Stadium on Oct. 26, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Indiana Hoosiers

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Preseason predictions that came after a 3-9 season to what led to an 11-2 historic campaign could have been really bad/hilarious to read in hindsight.

As it turned out, Hoosiers On SI was optimistic about the season-to-be back before Indiana played a game. Not optimistic enough, but who was?

Hoosiers On SI writers Jack Ankony and Todd Golden look back and reflect on their preseason predictions. Knowing what we know now, it’s fun to look back.

What are your expectations for quarterback Kurtis Rourke?

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) leaves the field after losing a game between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, in South Bend. Notre Dame defeated Indiana 27-17. / Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jack Ankony: I set my expectations high for Rourke, with benchmarks of a 3,000-yard passing season and a 65% completion percentage. He surpassed both, finishing with 3,042 passing yards and setting single-season program-records with 29 touchdowns and a 69.4% completion percentage. Rourke also came in ninth place in Heisman Trophy voting, likely higher than even the most bullish preseason Rourke supporters. After watching Rourke’s Ohio highlights, performance in the Indiana spring game and limited practice time, I made a comparison to former Indiana quarterback Peyton Ramsey, which I would no longer make at this stage. Rourke rushed for over 200 yards in each of his last three seasons at Ohio, similar to Ramsey’s Indiana career. Neither were run-first quarterbacks, but they were capable. Rourke didn’t really show that this year, though, finishing with minus-35 rushing yards after accounting for sacks. My concern with Rourke was whether he could avoid injuries, unlike past seasons, and if the offensive line could keep him on his feet. Pass protection was a major issue in the loss at Ohio State and to a lesser extent at Notre Dame, but Rourke mostly stayed healthy, aside from a thumb injury that sidelined him for one and a half games.

Todd Golden: Before the season, I wrote, “It’s not exactly rocket science to say that if the quarterback struggles, the rest of the offensive pieces Curt Cignetti added won’t have anywhere near the same impact.” True for any quarterback, but in the first season of a regime, even more so. By that standard, Rourke, the most efficient quarterback in FBS, passed with flying colors. I mentioned concern about injury and how many hits he could sustain. That became a much bigger part of the picture in the second half of the season when he missed one game with a thumb injury and was hit hard in games against Michigan and Ohio State. It’s a shame that Rourke’s final game was his worst as a Hoosier, but he fantastic otherwise, and a big reason Indiana was 11-2.

What will be the biggest area of improvement from last year?

Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) hands the ball off to running back Ty Son Lawton (17) during the first round of the College Football Playoff between Notre Dame and Indiana at Notre Dame Stadium on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ankony: I thought it would be consistent quarterback play, and there’s a strong argument to be made that it ended up being the biggest improvement. After flip-flopping between the inexperienced Brendan Sorsby and Tayven Jackson last year, Indiana had a stalwart in Rourke that it could rely on game in and game out. He rarely made mistakes, throwing just five interceptions. His performance was rarely a concern going into games, aside from seeing how he’d respond to the thumb injury. Indiana’s coaching staff clearly put a ton of trust in Rourke to make decisions in its RPO offense, and he delivered. Indiana’s offense went from 22.2 points per game last season, to the nation’s second-ranked scoring offense at 41.3 points per game, in large part thanks to Rourke.

Golden: I said it would be the running game. Indiana rushed for 2,146 yards and 4.7 yards per carry in 2024 as opposed to 1,441 and 3.4 per carry in 2023, so that’s a credit to Justice Ellison, Ty Son Lawton and the offensive line for taking a huge leap forward.

What is Indiana’s biggest potential weakness?

Indiana Hoosiers running back Justice Ellison (6) celebrates his touchdown with Indiana Hoosiers offensive lineman Mike Katic (56) in the first quarter against the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Ankony: Going into the season, I thought it was the offensive line. That was a weakness the previous three or four seasons, and Indiana lost expected starting right guard Nick Kidwell to a season-ending injury in fall camp. I’m torn on how to evaluate that area now that the season is over. The group made massive strides in its second season under coach Bob Bostad, going from a 103rd ranking in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grade and a 62nd ranking in its run-blocking grade during the 2023 season to 49th and 16th in those categories in 2024, respectively. The offensive line was a definite strength in 10 of Indiana’s wins. But in its two losses? It was a weakness. Notre Dame’s and Ohio State’s defensive fronts controlled the line of scrimmage in both games, perhaps the biggest separation between Indiana and the nation’s top-tier teams. Pass protection breakdowns nearly cost Indiana its 20-15 win over Michigan, which it led 17-3 at halftime. Indiana’s offensive line deserves a ton of credit for the improvement it made from one year to the next, but it has a ways to go until Indiana can compete at a national championship level.

Golden: I also identified the offensive line and I doubled down on my cloudy crystal ball by also mentioning the defensive line. As Jack mentions above, the offensive line was far better than anyone could have expected - even though they did struggle a little bit when the opponent quality rose. I couldn’t have been more wrong about the defensive line. Defensive end Mikail Kamara was an All-American and defensive tackles James Carpenter and CJ West made the Hoosiers nasty up the middle. What I couldn’t have known at the time was the interesting array of stunts and blitzes defensive coordinator Bryant Haines would employ. Indiana’s defensive front was probably the most consistent part of the entire Indiana team. Nostradamus, I was not.

Which three newcomers are you expecting the most from?

Indiana's Mikail Kamara (6) eyes Michigan's Davis Warren (16) during the Indiana versus Michigan football game at Memorial Stadium on Friday, Nov. 9, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ankony: Todd went with Rourke, D’Angelo Ponds and Mikail Kamara – three great picks – so I chose Jailin Walker, Elijah Sarratt and CJ West. I feel good about those picks too, as Walker finished second in tackles, Sarratt was the leading receiver and West played a key role in Indiana’s top-ranked run defense. Our biggest miss here was leaving out Aiden Fisher, an All-American linebacker and Indiana’s leading tackler. But based on the sheer amount of newcomers on this roster, we were bound to have a glaring omission or two. Others like Justice Ellison, Ty Son Lawton, James Carpenter, Zach Horton, Myles Price or Shawn Asbury II would have been good picks too.

Golden: Rourke was an easy choice just because you have to expect the most from the most important position on the field. D’Angelo Ponds got some national notice at James Madison, so predicting success at Indiana wasn’t exactly a big leap. Kamara also had success at JMU. In other words, I probably picked before Jack and I went for the most obvious choices! Such a brave predictor I was.

Where will Curt Cignetti’s influence be most felt this season?

Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti runs with his team before the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. / Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Ankony: I thought it would be through Cignetti’s clear vision of how he wants Indiana to play. In retrospect, he did an outstanding job establishing an identity on both sides of the ball. The defense’s catch phrase of “fast, physical, relentless” was evident all season as it swarmed to the ball, sacked the quarterback, made tackles for loss and always played hard. Offensively, he added a slew of transfer wide receivers and running backs with a vision of creating a dynamic, balanced offense led by Rourke, and he succeeded.

Golden: Back before the season I wrote, “Bottom line is that this is a confident man who has never failed to win at any previous stops. Where the rubber meets the road is how far confidence can take a team when the degree of difficulty to compete with the big boys is so high.” Turns out? It can take a team pretty far when confidence is matched with competence in the overall plan and in the coaching. In the end, Cignetti’s influence is felt in the most obvious fashion - he took a 3-9 Indiana program from 2023 to the College Football Playoff in 2024.

Which position group gives you the most confidence?

Indiana's Elijah Sarratt (13) celebrates a touchdown during the Indiana versus Purdue football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ankony: I chose the wide receiver room, which looked loaded in the preseason with Sarratt, Myles Price, Omar Cooper Jr., Miles Cross, Ke’Shawn Williams, Donaven McCulley and E.J. Williams. McCulley and Williams left the team midseason – Williams will be back in 2025, and McCulley transferred to Michigan – but Indiana’s offense didn’t skip a beat. So this feels like a good pick. They rarely dropped passes, and they were also good blockers on the outside. One could argue that the defensive line or linebackers would have been a better choice here, but there’s really no negatives to speak of about Indiana’s receivers.

Golden: I also chose the receivers with a mention of the running backs. The receivers were indeed good in 2024, but they did fall off a bit in the last half of the Big Ten season. Sarratt and Price remained productive. Cooper Jr. was a kind of big play guy. Ke’Shawn Williams was consistent, though not always prolific. Cross fell off badly in the second half of the season, but with five receivers having 20 catches or more? This unit was successful overall.

Will James Madison and other Group of Five transfers be able to compete at the Big Ten level?

Indiana's Jailin Walker (2) sacks Purdue's Hudson Card (15) during the Indiana versus Purdue football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ankony: Before the season, I wrote that I expect the Group of Five transfers to handle Indiana’s soft nonconference schedule with ease and to struggle like past Indiana teams have against Michigan and Ohio State. I also said that I think they’ll translate well enough to win three or four of those seven toss-up types of games in the Big Ten. Looking back on those comments now, I definitely undersold their abilities, but I don’t think I was too far off. There was a clear talent gap against Ohio State. Michigan turned out to be much worse than everyone expected, but Indiana still struggled with the Wolverines’ physicality in its narrow win. I certainly didn’t predict five of the Group of Five transfers to make the All-Big Ten team, and five more earning All-Big Ten honorable mentions is likely more than I would have predicted preseason. We knew these transfers would be some of Indiana’s top players, but no one thought they’d be this good. Being doubted became a driving force for this team.

Golden: In the preseason, I wrote, “I think the JMU transfers will thrive against Indiana nonconference opponents and against lesser Big Ten teams. It’s not really about whether they can hang with Michigan or Ohio State, but whether they hold their own when Indiana faces mid-level Big Ten programs like Washington, Nebraska, Maryland. Or road games at Northwestern and Michigan State. Those are the kind of games that will decide Indiana’s fate. I think some positions translate better than others when moving up in class. I think ability translates from one level to the next, but things like speed or size don’t.” The only thing wrong about that is that the Ohio State game was one in which it would have been good if Indiana could “hang” with the Buckeyes, but the rest of it turned out to be pretty accurate.

What’s a game Indiana can win that would be considered an upset?

Indiana's Justice Ellison (6) scores a touchdown during the Indiana versus Nebraska football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ankony: I chose Nebraska. Going into the season, oddsmakers set Nebraska’s win total over/under at 7.5 and Indiana’s at 5.5. But by gameday on Oct. 19, Indiana was a 6.5-point favorite so maybe my choice no longer fits the question, because it wasn’t an upset. Still, Nebraska was ranked 25th in the coaches poll before the game, and a 6-0 Indiana team had plenty of skeptics. This was arguably Indiana’s most dominant performance, winning 56-7 with 495 yards of total offense and three interceptions of Nebraska’s freshman phenom quarterback, Dylan Raiola.

Golden: I chose UCLA away and Washington at home. Both turned out to be wins, more or less, for the reasons I thought. The Hoosiers got the Bruins early, when they were still in nascent form. UCLA got better later, but Indiana got them at the right time. Washington wasn’t bad in their first Big Ten go-around, but the Huskies were nowhere near as good as they were in 2023 and they did most of their damage in Seattle, not on the Big Ten road.

What would make this a successful season?

Indiana Hoosiers tight end Zach Horton (44) carries the ball against the UCLA Bruins in the second half at Rose Bowl. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Ankony: I set a few benchmarks for this category, and Indiana blew each out of the water. The first was to make a bowl game, and Indiana became bowl eligible faster than any team in the nation after its 41-24 win at Northwestern. Second was to not get embarrassed by Ohio State and Michigan, and they went 1-1. Another less tangible idea was to sustain fan excitement throughout the season, and the Hoosiers certainly achieved that as Memorial Stadium sold out the final four home games and a sea of fans lined up early in the morning for ESPN’s College Gameday show in Bloomington. I also thought winning three Big Ten games would equate to success – because it would likely mean bowl eligibility, and since Indiana only won three total conference games from 2021-23 – and it safely accomplished that too. Indiana’s season ended with a disappointing loss at Notre Dame, but only calling it a successful season sounds like selling it short.

Golden: I cited bowl eligibility and a winning Big Ten record as benchmarks for success. With 11 wins and eight Big Ten victories, I’d say the Hoosiers kind of exceeded expectations, no?

What will Indiana’s regular season record be?

Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti reacts at the end of the game against the UCLA Bruins at Rose Bowl. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Ankony: I said 7-5. Going into the season, some thought that was unlikely. Now? It feels like an impossible letdown. Indiana’s schedule looked favorable in August, and it got much easier as national champion Michigan and national runner-up Washington took big steps back. But Indiana simply being a much better team than I thought is a bigger reason for my incorrect record prediction than my perception of the schedule.

Golden: It’s funny to go back to the start of the season and look back at predictions. Like Jack, I also had Indiana at 7-5 which seemed optimistic, even daring. Now it seems laughably unambitious. Then again? Had I picked 11-2, I’d have looked like a hopeless homer back in August. Sometimes the home folks have their prayers answered. Indiana fans’ cups runneth over in 2024.