Revisiting Preseason Predictions For Indiana Football Season

Halfway through the 2024 Indiana football regular season – and with the Hoosiers on a bye before hosting Nebraska on Oct. 19 – let’s revisit our preseason predictions and see where we went right or wrong.

Jack Ankony, Todd Golden | Oct 9, 2024

Indiana Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti talks with wide receiver Andison Coby (0) against Western Illinois at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

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Indiana Hoosiers

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The football season always seems to go by fast, doesn’t it?

The first six games of the Curt Cignetti era have gone about as well as possible, with Indiana setting a program record with six straight double-digit victories and becoming the nation’s first bowl-eligible team at 6-0. Indiana was picked 17th out of 18 Big Ten teams in the preseason, but it jumped to No. 18 in the AP Top 25 poll following Saturday’s 41-24 win at Northwestern.

Indiana has already reached the midway point of the 2024 season, a good time to rejuvenate before a more challenging second half. We’ll take this down time as an opportunity to evaluate the Hoosiers’ 6-0 start and revisit preseason predictions from Hoosiers on SI writers Jack Ankony and Todd Golden.

What are your expectations for quarterback Kurtis Rourke?

Jack: I had high expectations for Rourke going into the year, but I still managed to underrate him based on what he’s done through six games (73.8% completion percentage, 1,752 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions). I compared Rourke to Peyton Ramsey as being similar in style but with Ramsey a step or two above in talent and production. The style comparison holds some weight with Rourke’s accuracy and ability to scramble for first downs if he's pressured or doesn’t have an open receiver, but Rourke has outperformed Ramsey’s record-setting accuracy and my expectations for him as a passer. He’s on pace to set single-season program records in completion percentage, passing yards and passing touchdowns. I didn’t think that was out of the realm of possibility – mainly because of Indiana’s underwhelming history and that Rourke had thrown for 3,000 yards at Ohio – but I did not predict Rourke to win two Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week awards in six tries or have him in the Heisman conversation at his point. His downfield passing ability has been much better than what we saw in the spring game, when he mainly threw to short and intermediate routes. Preseason, I said the main concern was his health and whether the offensive line could keep him on his feet, and they’ve allowed just six sacks in six games.

Todd: I said in August that I was high on him given his track record of success at Ohio. Clearly, he’s exceeded the most optimistic expectations - not only in production but in his leadership qualities, too. His teammates praise him for his positive but direct way of directing them. It’s hard to underrate that given that first-year players have to win over teammates in a different way than veterans do. What has impressed me most about Rourke is how good he is on RPO plays. He disguises them very well and rarely makes a poor decision. Indiana’s offense is very good at getting those medium gains that make moving the sticks easier, and his mastery of RPO is one reason why. His downfield touch is very impressive as well. I do think he’s gotten away with a few forced throws, but he’s set such a high standard that it’s hard to criticize him for not being perfect when he’s been pretty great.

What will be the biggest area of improvement from last year?

Todd: I mentioned an improvement in the running game. To be fair, it was hard for Indiana to go anywhere but up after a lackluster running attack in 2023, but the improvement has been dramatic. In 2023, Indiana averaged 120.1 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry. So far in 2024, Indiana is averaging 200.1 yards and 5 yards per carry. The Hoosiers also rank seventh nationally in first downs gained via the run. Curt Cignetti has made the three-headed running back attack work like a charm without any of the backs getting bent out of shape about their role.

Jack: My preseason answer was consistent quarterback play, and that’s been spot-on so far. The difference between Rourke’s poise and accuracy versus the unstable play of Indiana quarterbacks from 2021-23 has been night and day.

What is Indiana’s biggest potential weakness?

Jack: Going into the season, I was most concerned about the offensive line, which has turned out to be a strength. I still think that concern was warranted, due to starting right guard Nick Kidwell’s season-ending injury in fall camp and the fact that Indiana would be starting two guards – Bray Lynch and Drew Evans – who had zero starting experience. There was a lot of uncertainty with a position that had been a weakness at Indiana for several years. But the job offensive line coach Bob Bostad has done with this group and the players’ performances deserves a ton of credit. Indiana has given Rourke plenty of time to throw, and the run game has been strong from start to finish each week. Indiana’s 78.8 pass blocking grade and its 75.0 run blocking grade on Pro Football Focus through six games are significantly better than the 57.4 and 60.4 grades it received last year and massive leaps from the 2022 grades of 45.3 for pass blocking and 47.0 for run blocking.

Todd: So far, fears about the lines that I pointed out preseason have largely been unfounded. The offensive line has been very good. Question marks at the guard spots filled by Drew Evans and Bray Lynch have been answered with quality play. Rourke has been pretty well-protected and that’s a credit to tackles Carter Smith and Trey Wedig. The defensive line has also been stout. CJ West has performed well. James Carpenter is a workhorse. For my money, I think defensive end Mikail Kamara has had the most impact of any one defender because of how he collapses opposing pockets. Injuries have come to the defensive line, but they have been suffered mainly by reserves.

Which three newcomers are you expecting the most from?

Todd: I chose Kurtis Rourke, D’Angelo Ponds and Mikail Kamara. Rourke has obviously been brilliant and has led an offense that has terrorized Indiana’s foes. As I mentioned above, Kamara would be my own Defensive Player of the Year for the disruptive way he leads the Indiana pass-rushing attack. Ponds has been solid, but not flawless. He’s rated 78th nationally among cornerbacks by Pro Football Focus in pass coverage and 124th overall as PFF.com considers him poor at run defense, dropping his overall ranking. None of those ratings are bad considering PFF.com rates 800 corners, but Ponds hasn’t been the playmaker in the same way he was at James Madison.

Jack: I went with linebacker Jailin Walker, wide receiver Elijah Sarratt and defensive tackle CJ West in the preseason. They’ve turned out to be good picks, though they may not be the three best picks possible. We’d have to include Rourke here to be perfect, but I also wanted to differentiate my picks from Todd, who picked Rourke. Sarratt is Indiana’s leading receiver with 29 receptions for 513 yards. Walker is the second-leading tackler with 34, though he left the Northwestern game in the first half with an injury. West got off to a bit of a slow start, but he has three tackles for loss and one sack on the season and lately has been a force in the middle.

Where will Curt Cignetti’s influence be most felt this season?

Jack: My preseason answer revolved around Cignetti’s clear vision for how he wants Indiana to play, aided by the significant number of coaches and players he brought with him from James Madison. As the season has played out, he has often referenced the blueprint and plan he brought to Indiana, which has led to the program’s incredible turnaround. It stood out to me on Saturday at Northwestern when Cignetti said that Indiana didn’t adjust after losing Walker to injury. “Nothing. We call what we call,” he said. Cignetti’s plan has worked at his previous stops, the Hoosiers have bought in, and it’s working. Indiana is tough, balanced, always attacking and carries a business-like approach in line with Cignetti’s attitude.

Todd: I noted Curt Cignetti’s changed tone in fall camp, and I think that’s carried over to the season. He wants to embody the “don’t get too low or too high” ethos and he wants his team to do the same. So far, so good, though Cignetti did show a bit of a crack in his facade when he acknowledged his pride for what Indiana has accomplished in its 6-0 start. Cignetti has downplayed any focus on him and some of the preseason statements he made. More to the point, his team is following his lead. Indiana’s players project the same kind of self-assuredness that Cignetti does. So far, there’s been nothing that’s shaken them from their own belief, and Cignetti deserves a lot of credit for instilling that attitude in his team.

Which position group gives you the most confidence?

Todd: I picked the wide receivers back in August. They’ve been great, but in a classic chicken-and-egg do they make Kurtis Rourke better? Or does he make them better? As always in these types of quandaries, it’s a bit of both. There’s been some spectacular catches - Miles Cross jumps immediately to mind with several, including his touchdown at Northwestern Saturday - that have bailed Rourke out. Rourke has floated in some beauties that made the receivers look good - such as an against-the-grain lob to Ke’Shawn Williams for a touchdown against the Wildcats. Indiana receivers have been very good at gaining yards after the catch. The Hoosiers have averaged 135.3 yards in YAC per game. Elijah Sarratt (192), Myles Price (150), Omar Cooper Jr. (135) and Ke’Shawn Williams (125) all have over 100 yards in YAC. All of the above has helped the Hoosiers gain 87 first downs via the pass, which ranks fourth nationally. Combined with Indiana’s run prowess, the Hoosiers are second nationally in first downs overall with 165.

Jack: I went with the wide receivers, and that’s arguably been Indiana’s most well-rounded position group. Along with Sarratt, transfer receivers like Myles Price, Ke’Shawn Williams and Miles Cross have each had standout moments. Returning Hoosier Omar Cooper is having a breakout season, and E.J. Williams Jr. made a clutch reception against Northwestern. Each has benefited from a rotation that keeps them fresh throughout the game and doesn’t allow opponents to double-team anyone. Indiana’s 2023 leading receiver Donaven McCulley has left the program, but it hasn’t skipped a beat.

Will James Madison and other Group of Five transfers be able to compete at the Big Ten level?

Jack: So far, this has been a resounding “yes.” On offense, Rourke, Sarratt, Cross and tight end Zach Horton have all transitioned seamlessly. Defensively, Walker, linebacker Aiden Fisher, cornerback D’Angelo Ponds, safety Shawn Asbury II, and defensive linemen Mikail Kamara, James Carpenter and CJ West have all been key contributors. Going into the season, I said that I expected them to “handle Indiana’s soft nonconference schedule with ease and to struggle like past Indiana teams have against Michigan and Ohio State.” The first part of that has played out correctly, but we haven’t seen the new Hoosiers against Michigan or Ohio State yet. Michigan has taken a step back from last year, and I’ve felt better about Indiana’s chances against the Wolverines each week. Indiana’s off to a great start, but I’m not ready to predict a win over Ohio State.

Todd: They clearly have, but when I answered this question in August, I wanted to know whether they’d be able to hold their own against Big Ten peers, not against Indiana’s weak nonconference opponents. I think the JMU transfers have passed that test so far. In games against UCLA, Maryland and Northwestern - all teams picked ahead of Indiana in the preseason conference poll - the Indiana offense has been very good to dominant. The defense has had its moments too, though in a bend-don’t-break kind of way on the scoreboard. Indiana’s defensive pressure against Maryland flipped that game in favor of the Hoosiers. Indiana tamped down a tepid UCLA attack in the Big Ten opener. Northwestern exposed some flaws, though, so the bye week comes at a good time for the defense.

What’s a game Indiana can win that would be considered an upset?

Todd: I chose UCLA, which seems ludicrous in hindsight given how much the Bruins have struggled, but it was more about the perception of the programs at the time I made the pick. Back in August, few thought Indiana was a better program because it had done nothing to prove it yet. UCLA is a traditional power; Indiana is not. Plus, the game was on the West Coast. So far, Indiana is the only Big Ten school to go to a West Coast school and win. I also pointed out Washington. I am looking forward to that game most of all on the October slate when the Huskies roll into Bloomington on Oct. 26. The Huskies have the third-best pass defense in FBS. It will be the first truly big test for Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers’ pass attack.

Jack: We can’t fully evaluate this prediction yet because I picked Nebraska, Indiana’s opponent on Oct. 19. But there has been a notable shift in the way this game is perceived. Going into the year, Nebraska’s win total was 7.5 and Indiana’s was 5.5. The Hoosiers have already passed that, and they’re 3.5-point favorites against Nebraska (5-1), so my preseason prediction doesn’t fit the question’s criteria anymore. Maybe I should have made a bolder prediction.

What would make this a successful season?

Jack: Indiana has already hit a few of my benchmarks for success. First was bowl eligibility, which the Hoosiers achieved before anyone else. Second was not getting embarrassed by Ohio State and Michigan, which is still to be determined but look like closer contests than they did preseason. Third was sustaining fan excitement throughout the season. After underwhelming crowds the first three home games, Indiana fans stayed at Memorial Stadium through the rain as the Hoosiers defeated Maryland. They probably outnumbered Northwestern fans in Evanston, too. Next week’s home game against Nebraska should be Indiana’s best crowd in the last few years. I also mentioned Indiana winning three Big Ten games would be a success, and it has already accomplished that.

Todd: I chose bowl eligibility. That’s done and dusted in the fastest manner any Indiana team has ever achieved it. I also wanted to see Indiana have a winning Big Ten season. The Hoosiers are two wins away from that with six games to play. What Curt Cignetti has taught everyone is to not put a governor on expectations. He talked the walk, and the Hoosiers are walking the walk.

What will Indiana’s regular season record be?

Jack: I went with 7-5 before the season, which felt a bit bold at the time, given Indiana’s 5.5 win total set by the sportsbooks. Now it’s looking too modest as ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts 10.2 wins for Indiana – seventh-most in the FBS. I predicted a 4-1 record in Big Ten home games, with wins over Maryland, Nebraska, Washington and Purdue, as well as an easy 3-0 run in nonconference play. So far, so good on those fronts. But it’s looking like I’ll fall a few wins shy of Indiana’s final record, which could be 10-2 for the first time in program history.

Todd: I was also at 7-5. I predicted a 5-1 start with a slowdown in the second half of the schedule. Indiana is one win ahead of my pace, which I thought was relatively optimistic at the time, so the Hoosiers obviously deserve kudos for that. What we didn’t know then is that some of the other games left on the Indiana schedule are more winnable than we may have thought. I predicted a home loss to Nebraska. That should be a competitive game given the Cornhuskers are stout defensively, but it would no longer be surprising if the Hoosiers won it. I predicted a loss at Michigan State. That’s still a tricky one, but certainly an achievable victory. Most surprising of all is that Michigan - which visits Indiana on Nov. 9 - looks like it could be a winnable game, too. The Wolverines have not looked impressive even in their wins, so they could be ripe for the picking. If all of the above occurred? Indiana would be 10-0 going into a showdown with Ohio State on Nov. 23. At that point, we’re talking seriously about College Football Playoff berths, Heisman Trophy consideration, and Indiana football fans would justifiably be over the moon.

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