The Day After: Predictions Revisited After Indiana Loses 27-17 To Notre Dame

Read about how Hoosiers On SI did with its pregame prognostications for the College Football Playoff game.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) scores a touchdown while being chased by Indiana Hoosiers defensive back D'Angelo Ponds (5) and Indiana Hoosiers defensive back Jamari Sharpe (22) during the first half of a game between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in first round of the College Football Playoff on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024, in South Bend. / Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

SOUTH BEND, Ind. – As usual, Indiana coach Curt Cignetti got straight to the point when he faced the media after the Hoosiers’ 27-17 loss to Notre Dame in the first round of the College Football Playoff late Friday night.

“All good things come to an end,” Cignetti said.

He wasn’t talking about Hoosiers On SI’s predictions and three keys stories throughout the 2024 season, but I feel much the same about the final installment of this regular feature.

Like the Hoosiers on Friday, the predictions and three keys didn’t go out on top. None of the keys really panned out. I went for the gusto and predicted a very dramatic finale. It didn’t remotely play out, almost a karmic punishment for trying to write the Hollywood ending into existence.

Oh well. You can’t win ‘em all, and the only sin here is some cringy-with-hindsight perspective on what seemed like optimistic possibilities in front of the Hoosiers.

Here’s how the three keys and predictions (didn’t) pan out during Friday’s game.

1. Pass Protection Has To Help Kurtis Rourke Calibrate His Game

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) throws during the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

As Indiana offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan pointed out, pass protection wasn’t that bad. Kurtis Rourke was sacked three times and hurried twice.

Pro Football Focus didn’t give Indiana’s line great pass protection grades. Center Mike Katic rated high at 86.1, and left tackle Carter Smith was decent at 73.5. The right side of the line was graded harsher, including a very low 46.5 for right tackle Trey Wedig.

Still, even by PFF’s different (more accurate) standard for hurries, Rourke was only hurried six times in 33 pass attempts. Not great, but hardly withering pressure.

Rourke couldn’t calibrate his game because he was himself rattled. His passes sailed long. His decision-making wasn’t anywhere near as sharp as it had been. He never got into rhythm, and while Notre Dame had a lot to do with it, a fair share of it was self-inflicted.

2. Indiana Has To Make Notre Dame Two-Dimensional

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard, left, looks for a teammate to pass to during the first round of the College Football Playoff between Notre Dame and Indiana at Notre Dame Stadium on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

File under be careful what you wish for.

Notre Dame was a run-dominant team, and the Fighting Irish showed that side of their offensive personality in rushing for 193 yards, averaging 5.5 per carry. So on the face of how this key was written – the gist was to force Notre Dame to throw to take the Fighting Irish out of their comfort zone – it didn’t come to pass.

However, in a sense, it did, but not in the way imagined when this prediction was written. Notre Dame did indeed throw the ball – 32 times in fact. Rather than struggle with the pass, the Fighting Irish thrived. Quarterback Riley Leonard completed 23 of 32 passes for 201 yards and a touchdown.

So in the three keys department? I get a big fat F for this premise. None of it played out as anticipated.

3. Nicolas Radicic Could Be A Big Advantage

Indiana Hoosiers place kicker Nicolas Radicic (39) high fives Indiana Hoosiers offensive lineman Carter Smith (65) after scoring a field goal during the first half of a game between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in first round of the College Football Playoff on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024, in South Bend. / Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana kicker Nicolas Radicic was fantastic this season – and he was very good on Friday night.

He made his only field goal and executed two excellent onside kicks, one of them a beauty recovered by the Hoosiers off a very high bounce.

Unfortunately, Radicic’s contributions weren’t felt in the way anticipated. A close game was predicted, and the premise of this key was that Radicic could make a difference given that Notre Dame’s kickers had struggled all season.

Indiana was never in a close game, so the Radicic advantage was rendered moot. In addition, Notre Dame kicker Mitch Jeter made two of his three field goals. The one he missed was blocked by James Carpenter.

Prediction

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) celebrate a touchdown during the first half of a game between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in first round of the College Football Playoff on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024, in South Bend. Notre Dame defeated Indiana 27-17. / Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As mentioned, I went for drama and predicted a one-point Indiana victory either via a late two-point conversion or a Radicic field goal.

None of that came close to reality. The harsh truth is that Notre Dame dominated the game from start to the two-minute warning in the second half. Indiana got a couple of consolation touchdowns to make it look better than it really was late in the game, but this was a thorough domination by the Fighting Irish.

More happily, Indiana was predicted to win every game in this space this season. If you had told me that in August, I’d have laughed, but like Indiana’s real life record of 11-2, the predictions were 11-2 during the season. The predictions may not have finished well, but it’s hard to argue with 11-2, so I’ll take it.

Related stories on Indiana football

• GAME STORY: Notre Dame defeats Indiana 27-17 on Friday to end the Hoosiers' dream season. CLICK HERE.

• TODD'S TAKE: Indiana got timid at the absolute worst time on Friday at Notre Dame. CLICK HERE.

• CARPENTER AT THE CENTER OF EVERYTHING: Good or bad, the action found defensive tackle James Carpenter in Friday's loss to Notre Dame. CLICK HERE.

• WHAT CIGNETTI SAID: What Curt Cignetti said after Indiana's 27-17 loss to Notre Dame. CLICK HERE.

• THE INDIANA WE KNEW WASN'T THERE ON FRIDAY: The Hoosiers we saw all season disappeared on Friday night. Todd Golden writes that Notre Dame had everything to do with it. CLICK HERE.

• TOM BREW COLUMN: Indiana isn't elite, but it's better than the alternative. CLICK HERE.

• LIVE BLOG: How the game played out as it happened in the Hoosiers On SI live blog. CLICK HERE.