The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 31-17 win over Washington

How did we do on our Indiana prognostications for the Washington game?

Todd Golden | Oct 27, 2024

Indiana Hoosiers running back Justice Ellison (6) runs the ball for a touchdown during the third quarter against the Washington Huskies at Memorial Stadium. / Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

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BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana football is setting so many milestones that the milestones have to get in line just to get attention among a growing group of historic distinctions.

By now, you’ve likely heard that Indiana has not trailed for a single second this season. That’s believed to be the first time in 20 years a team has pulled that off.

This Indiana team is now tied for having the longest win streak in school history. The only other two times Indiana had an eight-game win streak were in 1945 and 1967 – considered to be the best seasons in Indiana history.

Those are both very cool and important distinctions, but even some milestones that seem comparatively mundane are pretty amazing in their own right.

Indiana’s 19-play scoring series in the third quarter, the one that would ultimately break Washington’s back in the 31-17 Indiana win, was the longest the Hoosiers have sustained since at least 2005.

Indiana was never tackled for a loss by the Huskies. It’s the first time since a 2013 contest against Navy, which was the only game the Hoosiers have avoided a negative play dating to 2005.

These Hoosiers keep on delivering the goods when it comes to superlatives. What a remarkable run it's been.

Here’s how we did on the three keys and prediction for the Washington game:

1. Maximize Tayven Jackson’s Skill Set

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Tayven Jackson (2) walks to the locker room after beating the Washington Huskies at Memorial Stadium. / Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

As we wrote Saturday, Indiana did a pretty good job making sure the game plan was what Jackson could do.

One of the tools at our disposal is statbroadcast and its advanced statistics. One of the things it tracks is types of passes.

Jackson completed 4 of 6 on screen passes for 10 yards. He completed 2 of 3 short passes for 14 yards. He completed 4 of 8 passes for 44 yards. He completed 2 of 4 passes for 64 yards on deep passes.

He favored the left side of the field, where he completed 6 of 8 passes.

To put these stats in perspective, Indiana didn’t force Jackson to do anything he wasn’t capable of doing. That’s smart, and that’s also a credit to Jackson for not forcing anything.

2. Make Jonah Coleman Pay An Early Price

Washington Huskies running back Jonah Coleman (1) is tackled by Indiana Hoosiers defensive back Amare Ferrell (25) during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. / Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

Indiana more or less succeeded as I had it written. Coleman didn’t gain more than four yards on any of his first eight carries, but I want to change the subject.

For all of the advanced statistics we have at our disposal. For all of the advanced stats that have been invented by smarter people than me? Once in a while, perspective can be gained through some old-school math.

When I was in school back when dinosaurs walked the Earth, we learned mean, median and mode.

Coleman rushed for 105 yards on 19 carries. That’s an average (mean) of 5.5 yards per carry. Mean is used plenty in all sports. Mode is the most commonly occurring number in a group of numbers. That doesn’t work as well for football, since even good players are more likely to have smaller gains than larger ones.

Median, however, sheds some interesting light on any player’s day.

Coleman gained 105 yards and while you can’t take that away from him, it’s also a number that can be skewed in terms of how impactful it was for the entirety of the game.

What I mean is that one of Coleman’s carries was for 46 yards. It represented 43% of his yardage.

Median shines a light on the whole impact. If you’re not a math whiz – trust me, present company is definitely included – median is the middle number in a group of numbers ordered from highest to lowest.

Coleman helped me out with 19 carries, so there’s a specific middle number. The median for Coleman is 2. Coleman had nine carries more than two and nine carries less. That’s a pretty good indicator of the effectiveness of Indiana’s run defense.

For purposes of comparison, Indiana running back Justice Ellison, who rushed for 123 yards, had a median of 4. If the mid-point of your production gives you a theoretical first down every time you run the ball consecutively, you’re on to something.

The old school median reveals that although Coleman broke one big gain, Indiana did its job and contained him for the most part.

I knew that out-moded 1980s math I learned would pay off for me some day!

3. Keep Washington Doubtful In Red Zone

This one never really came to pass. Washington was 3-for-3 in its red zone trips and scored 17 points. It was identical to Indiana’s output.

Washington was ranked 16th in the Big Ten in red zone offense entering the contest, but the Huskies did a good job shaking that habit against the Hoosiers.

Prediction

The Indiana Hoosiers celebrate in front of the student section after the Indiana versus Washington football game at Memorial Stadium on Oct. 26, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I felt I was too conservative in my picks through the season and finally paid a price when Indiana walloped Nebraska by 49 in Week 8. So against my better judgment – I thought Washington did present some matchup issues for the Hoosiers – I went big and predicted a 31-10 Indiana victory.

I’m relatively happy with that pick. I got Indiana’s points exactly right, and I was within a touchdown of Washington’s total, which isn’t too bad.

I also wrote, “The Indiana running game will be stout, Jackson will hold things down in the passing game, and Washington will have difficulty breaking a confident defense.” Other than maybe the latter portion, that was more or less how it played out.

Chalk all of that up to a good crystal ball. Or a stuck clock being right twice a day. Either applies.

1. Maximize Tayven Jackson’s Skill Set

2. Make Jonah Coleman Pay An Early Price

3. Keep Washington Doubtful In Red Zone

Prediction

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