The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 38-15 Loss To Ohio State

No. 5 Indiana got humbled in Columbus, but the Hoosiers got a lot of help in the College Football Playoff picture.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (2) catches a touchdown pass against Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Lanell Carr Jr. (41) in the first half at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024 in Columbus, Ohio. / Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – In the immediate wake of No. 5 Indiana’s 38-15 loss to No. 2 Ohio State, the College Football Playoff situation for the Hoosiers appeared to be bleak.

The Hoosiers lost by 23 points and didn’t look very competitive against the Buckeyes, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Combine Indiana’s first loss with its weak schedule, and it appeared the Hoosiers had placed themselves in worst-case scenario mode with the College Football Playoff committee.

However, Indiana played at noon. There was a lot of college football still to be played in Week 13, and a whole lot of it smiled on the Hoosiers’ playoff prospects.

One game that was played simultaneously to Indiana’s game was No. 9 Ole Miss at Florida. The Gators, who have played competitively against most of the ranked teams they’ve played, finally broke through and dropped the Rebels 24-17. It was the third loss for Ole Miss, thought to be a fatal Rubicon to cross as far as playoff qualification goes.

Florida Gators running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (1) runs with the ball for a touchdown against the Mississippi Rebels during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

The SEC would provide a lot more surprises before the day ended.

The 3:30 p.m. window was quieter, though Minnesota pushed No. 4 Penn State to the limit before the Nittany Lions survived, 26-25.

The night games gave Indiana boosts it sorely needed.

First, No. 6 Notre Dame overwhelmed No. 19 Army, 49-14. That may not seem like it would be helpful to the Hoosiers – the Fighting Irish will pass Indiana in the rankings. But if Army had beaten Notre Dame, the Black Knights still would be unbeaten with a quality win Indiana doesn’t have.

The SEC provided the really big surprises. No. 7 Alabama, thought to be the safest two-loss team, laid an egg at Oklahoma in a 24-3 loss. The Crimson Tide are almost certainly out of the playoff picture – though they always seem to conjure a Lazarus act that defies the odds.

Meanwhile, the other half of the state of Alabama was living large. Auburn, a 4-6 team, led No. 15 Texas A&M for most of the game before the Aggies took a late lead. The Tigers drove into field goal position to tie the game and force overtime.

Three overtime periods couldn’t decide it. In the fourth overtime, by now down to do-or-die two-point conversion attempts, Auburn’s KeAndre Lambert-Smith made an acrobatic catch to give the Tigers two.

Auburn Tigers wide receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith (5) with the winning score in the fourth overtime period as Texas A&M Aggies defensive back Jayvon Thomas (14) closes in at Jordan-Hare Stadium. / John Reed-Imagn Images

Texas A&M ran a clever reverse out of the wildcat formation to free up quarterback Marcel Reed. Terry Bussey was wide open in the end zone, but the ball hit his hands and fell incomplete as Auburn completed the 43-41 upset.

Ole Miss, Alabama or even Texas A&M (the Aggies remain alive to be a bid-stealer if they beat Texas to make it to the SEC title game) could have passed Indiana in the rankings. It’s possible Army could have, too.

None of these teams will pass the Hoosiers, and while Indiana will likely cede ground to Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia, Tennessee and maybe SMU, Indiana should still be in the playoff field when the new rankings are announced at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

The Hoosiers didn’t live well in Columbus, but they did later on Saturday.

Here are this week’s three keys and a prediction for the Ohio State game:

1. Stuff The Ohio State Running Game

Ohio State Buckeyes running back Quinshon Judkins (1) runs around Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Tyrique Tucker (95) during the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. Ohio State won 38-15. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti noted that Indiana’s defense in general was decent. Indiana’s run defense looked good until TreVeyon Henderson’s late 39-yard run.

“You take that run out of there and they're under 300 yards total offense. Not bad,” Cignetti said.

The Buckeyes averaged 4 yards per carry. Henderson rushed for 68 yards – 39 on that last carry – and Quinshon Judkins was held to 36 yards. Going into the game? You’d take that. When Ohio State needed yards it was its passing game that largely provided it. Indiana did a solid job against the run.

2. Indiana Needs To Revive Its Running Game

Indiana Hoosiers running back Ty Son Lawton (17) runs the ball as Ohio State Buckeyes safety Caleb Downs (2) comes up to make the tackle during the fourth quarter at Ohio Stadium. / Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Indiana did pretty well in this department, too. Ty Son Lawton rushed for a game-high 79 yards and averaged a very solid 5.3 yards per carry. Justice Ellison had 62 yards. Between them, they averaged 4.4 yards per carry, a healthy rate against Ohio State’s defensive front.

Indiana’s team rushing total of 83 yards was due to the five sacks of quarterback Kurtis Rourke and the 23-yard loss on the James Evans bobbled punt. The running backs and blockers did their job. Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, the Buckeyes completely shut down the passing game.

3. Tighten Up In The Red Zone

Ohio State Buckeyes tight end Jelani Thurman (15) catches a touchdown catch behind Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Jailin Walker (2) during the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. Ohio State won 38-15. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana entered the game ranked 87th in red zone defense as opponents had scored 86.4% of the time against them. Indiana improved against the Buckeyes as Ohio State scored at a 66.7% red zone rate.

The most noticeable stop was Indiana’s stand at the 2-yard line early in the second quarter. Ohio State could get first down yardage by getting to the 1-yard line, but Mikail Kamara and James Carpenter stuffed Judkins for no gain. The other stop was Jailin Walker’s interception at the Indiana 11-yard line.

The problem for Indiana wasn’t their stop ratio, but how many times it had to be called on to make stops. We noted in Thursday’s three keys story that the best red zone defense is “to keep Ohio State away from the red zone entirely.” That didn’t happen. Six red zone opportunities for Ohio State is too many.

Prediction

Ohio State Buckeyes tight end Jelani Thurman (15) celebrates a touchdown catch with tight end Patrick Gurd (49) and tight end Will Kacmarek (89) during the second half of the NCAA football game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. Ohio State won 38-15. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Admittedly, the prediction of a 24-21 victory for Indiana was done more with the heart than the brain. Indiana had risen to every challenge, often emphatically, in 2024. So why lose faith for the biggest game of the season?

The three keys chosen did cite Indiana’s strengths against the Buckeyes, but the keys selected might have been wrong. Pass protection was an obvious issue and so was the noise. And I don’t think anyone expected Indiana’s heretofore bulletproof special teams to have the issues they did.

It was a tough day at the office, but the Hoosiers live on, and no one should abandon College Football Playoff hope.

Who knows? By 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, when Indiana and Purdue will kickoff in a very chilly Old Oaken Bucket game? Indiana might be playing for higher stakes than anyone would have anticipated in the wake of the Columbus disappointment.

Related stories on Indiana football

• GAME STORY: The story from Ohio Stadium as the No. 5 Hoosiers fall to the No. 2 Buckeyes 38-15 on Saturday. CLICK HERE.

• MY TWO CENTS: One loss does not wipe out Indiana's playoff worthiness. CLICK HERE.

• TODD'S TAKE: Ohio State took Indiana seriously and the Hoosiers paid a heavy price. CLICK HERE.

• EVERYTHING CURT CIGNETTI SAID: Curt Cignetti's comments to the media after Indiana's 38-15 loss to Ohio State on Saturday. CLICK HERE.

• WHAT KURTIS ROURKE SAID: What the Indiana quarterback said after Indiana's loss to Ohio State on Saturday. CLICK HERE.

• LIVE BLOG: Follow along with all of the action as Indiana took on Ohio State on Saturday. CLICK HERE.